Edward Dolan wrote:
> "SMS" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>
>>The Wogster wrote:
>>
>>
>>>I don't know about that, Labour day, just after Katrina when gas here hit
>>>$1.30/L (~$4/Gallon) made the highways to cottage country virtually
>>>traffic free, when normally they would have been packed, and we are
>>>generally just as car crazy as Americans. Did see a lot more bikes
>>>around though.... Of course this time of year, it's a little different,
>>>but gas prices are again toying with $1/L and I think that's a
>>>psycological barrier for a lot of people. At 0.999/L they will drive to
>>>work, at $1.010/L they will take transit, it works out to be cheaper.
>>>Then again, we have always been more thrifty then Americans.
>>
>>Yeah, when gas was $3 a gallon, around Labor Day, the temperature was
>>around 26? C, and it was clear, I was seeing a lot more cyclists than
>>around Xmas, when gas was $2 a gallon, the temperature was 4? C, and it
>>was raining. This clearly proves that higher gasoline prices cause more
>>people to ride their bicycles. I think that I'll bring this fact up at a
>>public policy meeting. It goes hand in hand with gardening helmets.
>
>
> Still, it will be interesting to see what will happen when the world runs
> out of oil. Unless we can come up with an alternative fuel that will work
> something like oil, I think we will see a major reordering of life styles in
> the West.
Oil will become to valuable to burn. Yup, however it will not be, a
we have oil one day, we don't the next, it will be, that the oil
available will be much harder, and more expensive to obtain, for example
think last fall, when gas hit $5/Gallon was expensive, it will be there
again, except it will keep on going up. Municipal transit companies
will start running trolley and street cars, en masse, because building
the electric infrastructure will be cheaper then buying the fuel for bus
fleets. Freight and people will get moved intercity by rail, because
the railways, can electrify lines, and it will be cheaper to run power
lines, then to purchase the oil to operate the trains. Airlines will
drop like flies, because they will not be able to compete fare wise with
the new electrified railways. Expect to see a lot of dual power
locomotives for a while, where it has a diesel engine, and a pentagraph,
allowing it to run in either diesel mode on unelectrified lines, and
electric on electrified lines.
Cities will need to be rebuilt, although a lot of land will be made
available when parking isn't needed as much. Homes will be built
smaller, and the townhome will become much more popular, except it will
not have a garage under it, and the common wall will mean less heating
cost. Systems like Toronto's Enwave (
www.enwave.com) which supplies
steam heat and Deep Lake Water Cooling, will provide the bulk of heating
and cooling for these homes, it's much more efficient to have a central
plant, even if it uses gas, then to have each home with it's own heating
system. Expect the gas to come from garbage digesters and sewage
treatment plants, rather then petroleum sources. What will happen, is
that you will have a meter in the basement, that measures how much steam
and chiller water you use, and you will be billed for that.
Suburbs will disappear, they don't have enough density for transit, and
driving will be too expensive, forget $5/Gallon, were talking
$50/Gallon, snd many gas stations will disappear because they will not
get enough business to be profitable, even if gasoline represents only a
small portion of their business. So you might have to spend $100 to
drive to the gas station for that $750 fillup.
Companies like GM and Ford will head into different businesses, there
will be a huge need for rail transit vehicles, which are largely hand
built. Of course, America will have a need for about 240,000,000 new
bicycles as well. The bicycle being the most efficient way of moving
relatively short distances. Add to that about 25,000,000 new bikes in
Canada, there will be an amazing new business for suppliers of ice
capable tires.
Imagine the morning traffic report, "And we have a 117 bike peloton on
I-495 south, and a disabled bike on the side of the north bound lanes,
looks like a dropped chain."
W
