Discovery in disarray.... ?

[cPritch67]

Week 1 of the Giro : Cyclingnews interview Lance Armstrong on 12th May 2006 and ask him who he thinks is favourite for the TDF.
Armstrong replies.........................Basso.

Why isn't Armstrong backing his own man, Danielson, sorry, Savoldelli???

First off, Danielson isn't even scheduled to ride the TdF and Salvodelli isn't supposed to be the leader. Everything I've read indicates that Popovych, Hincapie and Aczevedo are the potential co-leaders.
Secondly, I think their strategy is to come in as a steep underdog for a Top 10 (and they shouldn't have any problem doing that), and to surprise with a few placings, possibly even a podium (not sure who, and I can't see it). But that is why they ride the race........

 

[limerickman]

First off, Danielson isn't even scheduled to ride the TdF and Salvodelli isn't supposed to be the leader. Everything I've read indicates that Popovych, Hincapie and Aczevedo are the potential co-leaders.
Secondly, I think their strategy is to come in as a steep underdog for a Top 10 (and they shouldn't have any problem doing that), and to surprise with a few placings, possibly even a podium (not sure who, and I can't see it). But that is why they ride the race........

I was trying to be ironic when I mentioned Tiny Tim Danielson.

As regards the TDF - surely DC ought to back the only rider in their team to have won a GT, instead of their employer backing a rival from another team?
That's logical, i would have thought.

What the hell have the rider you mentioned above won in terms of GT's?
Nowt.

You back your main man. You back your main man especially as he's got 2 GT's under his belt. You don't back a rival ever.

 

[cPritch67]

Right, that's exactly the point why Il Falco (or DC, since it was a TTT) had to win today but... he didn't.

Had to win today? Your kidding yourself. Sure it would have been nice to win and put some time into everyone, but to say the Giro is lost because some time wasn't gained to CSC / TMO is flat out wrong. Its still too early, the riders form in the final week will be way more critical than yesterday's team time trial. After watching most of the GT's for the last 10 years, it becomes pretty evident that the best all round rider usually wins.

Look at last year's Giro, Paolo didn't have any teammates on any of the final climbs yet he still managed to win (albeit was touch and go near the finale) beacuse he could out individual time trial and could climb well.

 

[cyclingheroes]

Had to win today? Your kidding yourself. Sure it would have been nice to win and put some time into everyone, but to say the Giro is lost because some time wasn't gained to CSC / TMO is flat out wrong. Its still too early, the riders form in the final week will be way more critical than yesterday's team time trial. After watching most of the GT's for the last 10 years, it becomes pretty evident that the best all round rider usually wins.

Look at last year's Giro, Paolo didn't have any teammates on any of the final climbs yet he still managed to win (albeit was touch and go near the finale) beacuse he could out individual time trial and could climb well.

Normally you would be right... BUT... Savoldelli hat to win yesterday because he will lose to much time in the mountains. The mountains are harder in this year's edition and the other favourites are better climbers as Il Falco is...

 

[wolfix]

With the steep climbs the last has, the TT's will have nothing to do with the final victory. There will be a few riders putting minutes into other riders once those roads go up. The 1st two weeks in the Giro are nothing but a tourist tour through Italy. Having helpers/teammates in those climbs will not matter either.

 

[barnstorm]

nah, must be joke.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/2006/giro06/index.php?id=/photos/2006/giro06/giro065/fs_055
http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/2006/giro06/index.php?id=/photos/2006/giro06/giro065/fs_033

this second photo is hilarious. I can't tell who it is but they are so upright even in their aero bars. I have a super short torso and totally inflexible hamstrings and lower back that everyone around here makes fun of the stems I use on my bikes but I am a ton lower on my TT bike than that guy.

 

[rule62]

Heh...lim, it's called sandbagging. Owners, coaches and athletes do it all the time.

 

[doctorSpoc]

...Look at last year's Giro, Paolo didn't have any teammates on any of the final climbs yet he still managed to win (albeit was touch and go near the finale) beacuse he could out individual time trial and could climb well.

didn't have any official team mates but, Salvoldelli would have lost had it not been for pacing by primarily Wim VanHuffel (went from 15th to 11th) and other climbers who were trying to leap frog placings on the second last day last year... he kinda got lucky since other riders, for the own selfish reasons, were more than willing to work with him to gain as much time for themselves and as a side affect ended up pulling salvoldelli too...

Salvodelli needs to gain as much time in TT's and lesser mountain stages as he can because on the real high stuff he doesn't stand a chance... not making time in the TTT or as a minimum not loosing time is very important to Salvodelli, because he's going to loose time in the mountains.

 

[barnstorm]

Ullrich refers to Riis as "his friend". I don't know if there is antagonism between Riis and TMO (the org), perhaps there is.

But I know that Riis loathes Armstrong. At one point in the TDF in 2004 (i think) CSC car pulled up along side Armstrong, and it was clear that words were exchanged. Riis was pointing his finger at Armstrong.

In the movie "Overcoming", Riis scolds Basso about his performance against Armstrong.
You can see it in his eyes - he loathes LA.

Personally, i wouldn;t like to cross Riis - he seems to be a difficult character.
Remember his throwing his TT bike in the ditch during the 1997 TDF?

I think Riis is deadly competitive and dislikes his rivals. I think Ullrich is opposite. He is a great sport and respects his rivals to the point of personal liking. He liked Lance despite all Lance did to crush his chances... he was such a good guy that Lance still liked Ullrich. Ullrich probably still does think of Riis as a friend while Riis probably doesn't feel the same about Ullrich. Lim, I agree about Riis, he is a bit scary. I will never forget watching him lose his temper during that TT and chucking his bike while Jan crushed the field. Dinner must have been hell in Telekom camp that night. The big teddy bear image that we see a lot of well disguises a very cold competitive character. Interesting, when he won in 96, he never smiled the whole time. He looked cold and calculating throughout.

 

[barnstorm]

lots to work through here... final replies

to the point about what Armstrong says. Lim and WBT, I am surprised you actually care at all what he says. I sure don't. You are right that he should back his team though. Perhaps it's just habit because he always tipped Ullrich as the favorite when he was racing despite the fact that he had no intention of losing.

to the point about Basso, Salvodelli, and the pure climbers on different gradients. Mathematically, that is a good breakdown. I think we are all underestimating Salvodelli's skills on a climb. I think he has a bigger engine than Basso in terms of the milder gradients. He has more exposive power overall and I think pretty similar weight. I think he has a better chance on the really steep stuff than Basso. They are close in TTs taking last year as an indication.

 

[bobke]

lots to work through here... final replies

to the point about what Armstrong says. Lim and WBT, I am surprised you actually care at all what he says. I sure don't. You are right that he should back his team though. Perhaps it's just habit because he always tipped Ullrich as the favorite when he was racing despite the fact that he had no intention of losing.

to the point about Basso, Salvodelli, and the pure climbers on different gradients. Mathematically, that is a good breakdown. I think we are all underestimating Salvodelli's skills on a climb. I think he has a bigger engine than Basso in terms of the milder gradients. He has more exposive power overall and I think pretty similar weight. I think he has a better chance on the really steep stuff than Basso. They are close in TTs taking last year as an indication.

In general I would agree with the idea abou Basso but from what CSC is letting out I think Ivan will not be dropped on any gradient, at least not seriously. We'll see of course.

 

[Bjorn P.Dal]

TD: "This was my first TTT so I couldn't really tell if it was good or bad. It's all new for me. The only time I'd ever done this before was with my friends in Durango".

Great preparations eyh?

 

[cyclingheroes]

didn't have any official team mates but, Salvoldelli would have lost had it not been for pacing by primarily Wim VanHuffel (went from 15th to 11th) and other climbers who were trying to leap frog placings on the second last day last year... he kinda got lucky since other riders, for the own selfish reasons, were more than willing to work with him to gain as much time for themselves and as a side affect ended up pulling salvoldelli too...

Salvodelli needs to gain as much time in TT's and lesser mountain stages as he can because on the real high stuff he doesn't stand a chance... not making time in the TTT or as a minimum not loosing time is very important to Salvodelli, because he's going to loose time in the mountains.

Yeah Ardila (this year racing for Rabobank, last year with Davitamon-Lotto) helped Salvoldelli together with Van Huffel... Without these guys Il Falco wouldn't have won the Giro...

 

[saluki]

The steeper it gets the better the small guys are. On a climb like Sestriere you want to be about 68 - 70 kilos like Basso, Armstrong, Savoldelli and have a massive FTP. The smaller guys tend to get beaten on these climbs as although they are a lot lighter their FTP's are small. There will be a gradient for which Basso and Simoni say are on an equal footing. Below that grade Basso does better, above it Simoni does better. Since Basso and Savoldelli are similar sizes they will struggle in similar ways on the really steep stuff with the stronger one winning out, but they will both be having a hard time compared to the guys who are 8kg lighter, i.e Di Luca, Simoni, Cunego.

Remember in the 2005 Giro, stage 11 Savoldelli scored time on Simoni and co mainly due to his descending skills I guess, having 20 seconds in hand before the climb then hanging on to Basso. But on stage 13 he gained time on Simoni and Di Luca on an uphill finish (7 seconds). So I reckon on the flatter climbs Savoldelli can outclimb Simoni and DiLuca and Cunego. But on the steeper climbs he gets shot out the back.

The only stage Savoldelli lost major time on was the Col de Finestre stage, more really hard stages this year so maybe he will have two stages where he gets hit badly.

I agree with the analysis about how an increase in gradient benefits the little guys. But here is my question. Why simply give those kinds of stages to the little guys. Because their advantage can also be their disadvantage. Their smallness also makes them more suceptible to wind resistance. So why not ride the legs off them in the flat before you ever get to the mountain top stage. TMO, CSC, and DSC all feature bigger guys. And they all have teams that can deliver a punishing pace in the flat. Suppose they agreed to work together to drive the pace 40 or 50 kilometers before the final climb. They would single line the peleton and take the legs right out of the little climbers. Between the three teams there are probably 15 guys that could deliver a bruising pace. Then Savoldelli, Basso, and Honchar simply sit behind that group till they hit the mountains.

 

[bobke]

I agree with the analysis about how an increase in gradient benefits the little guys. But here is my question. Why simply give those kinds of stages to the little guys. Because their advantage can also be their disadvantage. Their smallness also makes them more suceptible to wind resistance. So why not ride the legs off them in the flat before you ever get to the mountain top stage. TMO, CSC, and DSC all feature bigger guys. And they all have teams that can deliver a punishing pace in the flat. Suppose they agreed to work together to drive the pace 40 or 50 kilometers before the final climb. They would single line the peleton and take the legs right out of the little climbers. Between the three teams there are probably 15 guys that could deliver a bruising pace. Then Savoldelli, Basso, and Honchar simply sit behind that group till they hit the mountains.

Yes, that was Liggett and Sherwen's refrain during the infamous monster stage in TdF 2001 ending on Alpe d'Huez that T-Mobile was setting a horrendous pace throughout the previous two climbs and the valley flats in order to, please join in the chorus everyone:
DEADEN THE LEGS OF ALL THE CLIMBERS!!!!!

Its good strategy if you've got a strong team like CSC...I woud put less confidence in Disco doing the same after the TTT. But we'll see.

 

[barnstorm]

Yes, that was Liggett and Sherwen's refrain during the infamous monster stage in TdF 2001 ending on Alpe d'Huez that T-Mobile was setting a horrendous pace throughout the previous two climbs and the valley flats in order to, please join in the chorus everyone:
DEADEN THE LEGS OF ALL THE CLIMBERS!!!!!

Its good strategy if you've got a strong team like CSC...I woud put less confidence in Disco doing the same after the TTT. But we'll see.

Exactly Bobke. The teams at the tour are so strong and they ride such a fast tempo in the early climbs, flats, rollers, and crosswinds that the pure climbers rarely have been able to show much form in the big mountains of the tour recently. A few examples like Mayo on ADH in 2003 stand out but there are a lot more examples of guys promising to do big things then not being up there when the going gets tough. So, Saluka, your theory is dead on.

 

[saluki]

Exactly Bobke. The teams at the tour are so strong and they ride such a fast tempo in the early climbs, flats, rollers, and crosswinds that the pure climbers rarely have been able to show much form in the big mountains of the tour recently. A few examples like Mayo on ADH in 2003 stand out but there are a lot more examples of guys promising to do big things then not being up there when the going gets tough. So, Saluka, your theory is dead on.

I followed the Vuelta last year and I noticed that the pace in the flats was much more casual. Then when they hit the mountains the little Spanish climbers exploded. The TDF moves much more quickly in the flats. That could be one of the main reasons why people like Heras can excel in the Vuelta but not in the Tour.

In any case, if I was Savoldelli, Honchar, or Basso I would certainly have my team push the pace before the big climbs. Doing anything else is giving Simione and Cunego much more opportunity than is necessary. As for DiLuca, I'm not sure that he is for real.

 

[thebluetrain]

A few examples like Mayo on ADH in 2003 stand out but there are a lot more examples of guys promising to do big things then not being up there when the going gets tough.

Another example was Simoni in 2003 after winning the Giro. Here is what he said to Armstrong.

"I'd like to try and hammer away at Armstrong in the mountains, perhaps I can even demolish him," Simoni said "He has never had to deal with a real climber before. The guys he has beaten have been time-triallists. If he's caught out, perhaps he will panic."

"I'm a good climber and I'll try to cause Armstrong some problems in the mountains. "In the four Tours Armstrong has won, he's always had an easy ride to Paris because he's never faced real climbers.

 

[bobke]

Another example was Simoni in 2003 after winning the Giro. Here is what he said to Armstrong.

"I'd like to try and hammer away at Armstrong in the mountains, perhaps I can even demolish him," Simoni said "He has never had to deal with a real climber before. The guys he has beaten have been time-triallists. If he's caught out, perhaps he will panic."

"I'm a good climber and I'll try to cause Armstrong some problems in the mountains. "In the four Tours Armstrong has won, he's always had an easy ride to Paris because he's never faced real climbers.

Wel Simoni had not planned on "twin peaks" that year. It is very hard to go all out as he did to win the Giro and show up at the Tour in form.

Basso has said, and I believe him, that the pace in the flat tour stages are just crazy fast and the Giro just doesnt compare in how tired out you can get before even hitting the mountains.

And in the mountains he said it is just 2-3 km/hr faster and thats just the tempo part before the full on attacks.

 

[thebluetrain]

Heh...lim, it's called sandbagging. Owners, coaches and athletes do it all the time.

LOL, Armstrong teaches classes on Sandbagging. T-mobile are gradutates.