Is anybody going "hmmm" about Pogacar?
Does the Giro and wins, then gets Covid but bounces back and looks like he's got the TdF sewn up.
I don't believe in freakish physiology.
I don't think that record is all about freakish physiology.
Pogi was sitting in the wheel of Jourgensen and Jonas and apparently pulling some of the best watts that he's done in the third week of the Tour just to stay in the wheel. Compare to Pantani in 98, he didn't launch his effort until a 1/3 or 1/2 way up the climb. The bottom half is steeper, so the time differences would be greater. A chunk of that time would be just from this.
Doping. 1998 was "The Festina Affair" year. Dopers **** their pants and their schedules probably were shot to ****. Pantani was likely one of those, given that when he broke his femur in 96 his hospital records showed a hematocrit level of 60.1%. The uber doped Pantani we all knew wasn't allowed to be the uber doped rider he wanted to be because the Tour slapped a 50% limit asap. I can't even imagine how much of a shock to the system that would have been.
Equipment. We fondly look back to kit of old and think it was the best and then some dude rides both under similar conditions and proves us wrong. It's easy to forget how much better modern bikes are. Would you think that a Lotus 110 superbike that Boardman rode to TdF Prologue yellow smashing Indurain by more than a dozen seconds would be slower than a modern road bike without tri-bars? That was a full on state of the art TT bike back when Pantani was riding. The stuff of legends.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4vUncijjDo
I couldn't image a time where the bike that Boardman used for the "Ultimate hour record" in 96 (he used the road bike with two chainstays and not the single sided one that was ultra aero for the Barcelona Olympics in 92) would be slower with a rider on it that a "standard" road bike. Ok, this wasn't a "scientific test" but at a moderately controlled level the result were consistent over 4 rides by 2 different good riders.
The other part of the equipment is the wheels. Tubulars glued with the good ol' Mastik 1 had **** rolling resistance. **** ro;;omg resistance to even compared to clinchers of the day. Michelin were even saying that with their clinchers of the time. NuTrak won me over on that one - plus their rubber was gumball sticky and ace in corners. Rolling resistance wise, tubs where garbage compare to tubeless systems of today. Granted, if you glued your tubs on with shelac or other tack tyre glue, things would be closer but for standard road use it's the way it is. Two years ago I had a quick ride on a coworkers Pinarello Dogma with Evne SES 4.5 wheels on, just like Pogi is riding. He had Conti 5000 standard road race tyres on (Pogi was riding the TT tyres on that stage) and it felt like I was somehow powered by the bike. I'd been a big doubter of "super wide is better" but his 28C tyres were closer to 31mm and when I rode up the ramp out of our parking garage it was just a brain ****. It didn't make sense. For reference my "good bike" is the Dura Ace equivalent to what Nibali rode to Giro victory in 2010 and it felt utter **** compared to this. That said my Cracknfail is ungodly on the descents. It's like it reads my brain...
But the other factor is the weather. Was there a huge wind that blew in just the right direction. Was there low air pressure. Was riding a shorter stage a factor, stages are getting shorter...
I have 20% sceptic living in the back of my head and 80% until they get popped doping it's all good. Everything advances - the riders genetically, diet, training and resting and even doping. There will always be folks looks for an edge. It's the way of the world. Personally I would like to see stiffer penalties for those that are popped, base it on a ranking scale: rider failed test on the "Bumpenshitzen cobbled van ballenbreaker" neopro race gets banned for 4 years. ProTour rider dopes in a conquest for TdF glory - ban the whole ****ing team for life. Make the stakes that high.