In article said:"Stewart Fleming" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...
Quoted message said:TdF tradition in recent years is that the final stage into Paris is a procession and that no
serious racing takes place until the Champs-Elysees. I'm writing this before the Luz-Ardiden
stage, but...
...if the prime German Sausage doesn't lose time up the final climb on stage 15 and is sitting
15s down on Lance, then takes a few seconds more in the last ITT on stage 19, what could happen
on the last stage? Would US Postal break with tradition and force the race on the last stage?
Many of these traditions that people keep referencing have no reason behind them other than
history. Historically there has usually not been sufficient reason to attack on the last days
because the GC has been firmly established. For example, the yellow jersey going back to get water
is against tradition only because historically it would have been a back strategic decision.
Any time there is a reasonable doubt as to the complete resolution of the general classification,
then that becomes sufficient reason to attack the current leader.
In this case of 3 riders all within 1 minute of the lowest GC time, it would be expected that any
of the 3 would attack in order to become the final GC winner. In other words, the expectation that
Lance would launch an attack to secure the jersey is as strong as the expectation that the other 2
would attack in order to defeat him. This expectation remains until one of the riders is firmly
established as the GC leader or the end of the race, which ever comes first.
Very astute. The other problem, though, is that winning the Champs-Elysee stage is the most
prestigious non-jersey accomplishment you can manage at le Tour. Since the stage profile is always
flat and short (just over 150 km this year), every team in the race is willing to attack and nail
breakaways in order to neutralize the race until the 10 laps.
It's possible that if the GC is close, there will be an early attack, but there is little chance it
will succeed, unless USPS or Bianchi is a stronger team than I think.
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Ryan Cousineau, [email hidden] sfu.ca~rcousineOpen ↗ President, Fabrizio Mazzoleni Fan Club