Depends how many people are away and how many people are chasing. I must say that i dont like the thought of Frank Schleck doing a daredevil descent to try and stay away though.Crankyfeet said:
2008 Tour de France Stage 17 - Wednesday, July 23: Embrun - L'Alpe-d'Huez, 210.5 km
- Thread starter TheDarkLord
- Start date
Kirchen has performed better than Cunego so far. If previous stages are a guide, I expect both to lose a few minutes to the others.Powerful Pete said:
Is it possible that they let Valverde go, or is he too much of a threat.TheDarkLord said:
If he tries to go balls out, I think the Maillot Jaunne has to let him go.
He looked good Sunday, he may be in a position to get himself back into this thing either Tuesday or Wednesday.
Wouldn't that make for some drama.
This stage and the Tuesdays stage are set for the guys with the big engines that can come out day after day and still grind up the climb.
I don't expect to see any long blistering uphill sprints just a bunch of guys trying to not go out the back of the group and be dropped.
This stage may be not define this years winner but it should certainly indicate who won't be.
I don't expect to see any long blistering uphill sprints just a bunch of guys trying to not go out the back of the group and be dropped.
This stage may be not define this years winner but it should certainly indicate who won't be.
There's 5 guys who could conceivably win in Paris. So far, I would say Evans has still the best chances. He should ride defensively, which should fit him well and then save himself for Saturday. Menchov lost time on the decent today. He has to make time on Evans tomorrow (~2 min) to survive Saturday. Kohl will also need to make at least 2 min on Evans. If these two go together, they could put sufficient time into Evans. Then we have Frank and Sastre. Although Sastre rode a better 1st TT than Kohl, since he's about 1/2 a min behind Evans, he'd need to get about 3 min on Evans tomorrow. Frank's 1st TT was the worst of the 5 top riders.
Seems to me that CSC not only has to put time into Evans, but also into Menchov and Kohl (at least a minute). IMHO they have to decide who's going to sacrifice himself for the other. Look at how much help Andy has been once he stopped being a contender. Sastre seems slightly weaker than Frank.
Best case scenario for Saturday would be (gaps on Alpe d'Huez)
1) a CSC rider (Frank, possibly Sastre)
2) 1-2 min down, Kohl+Menchov
3) ~3 min down, Evans
This would make for a very interesting final ITT and possibly even some fireworks during the transitional stages.
Seems to me that CSC not only has to put time into Evans, but also into Menchov and Kohl (at least a minute). IMHO they have to decide who's going to sacrifice himself for the other. Look at how much help Andy has been once he stopped being a contender. Sastre seems slightly weaker than Frank.
Best case scenario for Saturday would be (gaps on Alpe d'Huez)
1) a CSC rider (Frank, possibly Sastre)
2) 1-2 min down, Kohl+Menchov
3) ~3 min down, Evans
This would make for a very interesting final ITT and possibly even some fireworks during the transitional stages.
The biggest question for CSC is who they see as their main threat?
Could F.Schleck gain 2+ mins on Evans on Alpe d'huez? Evans is not a
super climber and he will lose time, but its a gamble if they leave it to the
final climb and Evans only loses ~1min, even 1.5 mins should be enough of a buffer for Evans come the final TT. Then again, I can't see them trying to drop Evans on the Croix de Fer, you have to remember F.Schleck is not a proven tour rider, he too may blow if they ride too hard too early. I see CSC riding conservatively/tempo until they come to d'huez, but they risk Evans just holding on. Menchov has lost the status as an immediate threat to CSC now.
Kohl is a dark horse.
I can't see how CSC won't want to control the race until the final climb
Could F.Schleck gain 2+ mins on Evans on Alpe d'huez? Evans is not a
super climber and he will lose time, but its a gamble if they leave it to the
final climb and Evans only loses ~1min, even 1.5 mins should be enough of a buffer for Evans come the final TT. Then again, I can't see them trying to drop Evans on the Croix de Fer, you have to remember F.Schleck is not a proven tour rider, he too may blow if they ride too hard too early. I see CSC riding conservatively/tempo until they come to d'huez, but they risk Evans just holding on. Menchov has lost the status as an immediate threat to CSC now.
Kohl is a dark horse.
I can't see how CSC won't want to control the race until the final climb
Ullefan said:
Even if you take Evans out of the equation, Kohl did a better 1st TT than Frank. Menchov did better than both. Without Evans, Menchov would be the favorite right now to win in Paris with Kohl maybe on second. CSC needs to put time into ALL of them. Otherwise they might not even podium in Paris. It would be Frank and Carlos on 4th and 5th.
Fair enough. When Menchov was only 30 something seconds back, my feeling was CSC would try something on the penultimate climb, but at over 1 min back, maybe they'd put their eggs in one basket and leave it till the final climb, of course they still have to gain time on Menchov/Evans. Maybe they might try to blow out Kohl out the back before d'huez?Cobblestones said:
Happiest of the contenders? Evans - he only needs to hang in there which he seems to do well with.
The biggest question for csc is how are they going to win the race.Ullefan said:
If Schleck could gain 2 minutes on Evans he would have done it in stage 16. Its hard to see him having any more strength on the way up Alpe d'huez unless he gets on the juice tonight.
Evans won't lose time in stage 17 to any of the general contenders judging by the performances so far.
That's true but I'm basing this on the following.Powerful Pete said:
If all is as it should be, CSC can't keep up this super human pace for 3 more climbs without being on some good stuff. Kohl should explode aswell and Evans should lose time and Valverde and Kirchen and Menchov will take advantage of that as they havn't worked nearly as hard as what the CSC riders have.
Today, those CSC riders and Kohl need to blow up. If they don't, they all need to be tested 50 different times over the next few days to catch them. They can't physically keep this up for 3 huge climbs today. It's just not possible.
If all is as it should be - tips today
Valverde - sprint with menchov
Menchov - sprint with Valverde
Kirchen - 30 seconds down on the winner
Sastre, Schleck, Schleck - 1 - 2 minutes down on winner
Kohl and Evans 2 - 4 minutes down on winner.
Surely Sastre, Schleck, Schleck and Kohl and Evans are going to blow up soon as surely Voigt does aswell. Vande Velde blew up yesterday so it's only a matter of time.
I'm basing these predictions on what is outlined above.
Personally I don't care who wins - it's time to climb THEE Alp!
Methinks this is going to be the stage to end all stages in the Tour - I predict dribs and drabs of riders all over the place with riders popping, fans getting in their faces, suicide breakaways and me glued to the TV for the whole shebang.
F8ck I love this Tour - it's like I'm 12 years old again - fantastic.
Not sure I can take more excitement - John Lee's riches to rags move yesterday had be burning most of my rear tyre off on the turbo trainer...
Methinks this is going to be the stage to end all stages in the Tour - I predict dribs and drabs of riders all over the place with riders popping, fans getting in their faces, suicide breakaways and me glued to the TV for the whole shebang.
F8ck I love this Tour - it's like I'm 12 years old again - fantastic.
Not sure I can take more excitement - John Lee's riches to rags move yesterday had be burning most of my rear tyre off on the turbo trainer...
Schumi is doing the bulk of the work in the escape group. Amazing after his solo effort yesterday. Of course, the major climbs are yet to come and so he may still blow up.
Agreed. Despite Riis's musings, CSC for all there huffing and puffing haven't achieved a hell of lot. If the race was won on getting the most members of your team to the base of the final climb then they would have won hands down. That’s not the aim in this race thou.Scotttri said:
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