In article <[email hidden]>,
Chalo said:Jobst Brandt said:
ChaloColina said:
The experience will not be wasted if you (and others) remember it
the next time you make a major bike or component purchase. Shimano
will continue to hand out such lessons-- see the latest "Coasting"
group-- until consumers take heed and stop buying into their planned
obsolescence.
This reeks of conspiracy theory. These folks do not see any advantage
in a product that will soon be found wanting. They do the best they
can and when competition and mechanical failures start catching up
with their design, the try something else.
...
Quoted message said:This has nothing to do with patents or other planning. When the user
base dwindles to an acceptably low level (units shipped) they get out
of the product and hope everyone forgets how it failed.
I don't suggest that the plan to leave customers out in the cold, but
I do suggest that they plan to constantly introduce proprietary
standards *because they are proprietary*, and for no other reason. If
you can review the market history of Shimano and conclude otherwise, I
suggest that you just aren't looking very hard.
Introducing, and then abandoning, proprietary standards inevitably
leads to consumers being cheated of product support. Right now the
story is unfolding with Octalink, but it could just as well be about
Positron, or 10mm pitch chain and sprockets, or 2mm brake cables.
Auto-D, Coasting, and the peculiar axle-mounted Saint derailleur (to
name a few) are on the slate for the same treatment in the future.
I posted here a little while ago about how and why I think Shimano
innovates. It ends up that a lot of their big ideas go over badly and
end up in remainder bins fast (AX pedal eyes, we hardly new ye...).
But that's overshadowed by their big ideas which have ended up more or
less owning the marketplace. And frequently it's not so much that
Shimano comes up with the idea, as that they get it right (SIS versus
Positron versus a few other proto-indexing systems, STI brifters, and
others).
Given this, Shimano is pretty focused on throwing a lot of new ideas at
the marketplace. I mean, for example, we can all say Coasting is good,
Coasting is bad, but what it comes down to is whether any bike buyers
actually want it.
Right now, nobody knows. Well, maybe the manufacturers are now seeing
early sales numbers and order requests come in.
It is also worth noting the difference between the degrees of orphanage
from part to part. AX cranks aren't maximally orphaned, because a simple
adapter turns them into standard cranks (AX pedals, very orphaned...).
10 mm pitch chain is so abandoned that the entire drivetrain is
essentially a non-maintainable curiosity (eBay those fresh chains early
and often, kids). But something like Octalink (which is NOT orphaned at
this point...) is at worst about the replacement of either the crank or
the BB when the other fails, and knowing Shimano, the BBs will be
available for some time after the last Octalink crank exits the catalog
(which has NOT happened yet).
Octalink is an interesting study, too: it was a response to a
widely-acknowledged problem, which you know as well as anyone. It was a
bad solution, like the cupholders in a VW New Beetle (sorry, I shouldn't
start...). So they tried to fix it with v2. Which also didn't work.
At this point, one may question the quality of the engineers quite
fairly. And you've pointed out there's a strong smell of not wanting to
pay money to Bullseye et al for their patents (let's not contemplate the
continuing situation where Shimano does not make threadless headsets,
which seems to be of a similar nature).
But they tried again. And it looks like Hollowtech II is in with a
chance.
Meanwhile, the rest of the cycling world tried to solve the same
problem. They came up with ISIS, which had grave bearing issues. The
remaining ISIS makers all claim to have worked around those problems
(some by putting in four bearings, others by, well, claiming their
bearings are really good...), but most just went and developed their own
external-bearing designs.
Of course, the irony is that this panoply of wacky BBs came about
because, as you and I agree, component makers were unwilling to just
come out and declare the current BB shell standards obsolete (except
maybe BMX, which could be our new BB to end all BBs), though that would
effectively orphan...virtually every road bike ever made!
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:From the consumer standpoint, I don't think it really matters whether
they are planning to screw you, or instead they just adopt a marketing
approach that consistently screws you as a side effect. The correct
strategy for dealing with it is the same: don't buy Shimano's [censored].
One of the reasons Shimano gets a lot of [censored] for this is because they
have had the temerity to survive their bad ideas. Nobody will sell you
an Accushift I cassette, shifter, or derailer. Parts for your
Browning-licensed Suntour drivetrain may be found from the same number
of suppliers. Small parts for Mektronic and Zap shifters are hard to
come by.
The number of component companies that were born, had one bad idea, and
died is enough to fill an Interbike show.
There's some merit to the idea that sensible, conservative parts junkies
(er...) will wait a few years to discover what works and what doesn't.
Full disclosure: I ride an Octalink-equipped bike, my racer. I do so
because I got a Dura Ace crank and most of an Ultegra (9-speed)
drivetrain (including BB) for $100, and thus am sanguine about the
matter of replacing either the crank, BB, or both.
--
Ryan Cousineau [email hidden] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos