Rooney wrote:
> On Fri, 18 Mar 2005 14:36:24 GMT, Colin MacDonald
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>>Rooney wrote:
> <snip interesting stuff>
>
> But aren't all these comparisons done per mile (or km, or billion km -
> makes no difference)? Eg. air and car, etc?
>
> Surely that makes it easier to compare: I'm going to the village, a
> journey of two miles, whether I walk or bike or drive. What's safest?
> It looks to me like, *per given journey*, the car is 10 times safer
> than the bike?
But the point is that it _isn't_ per given journey. It's the
accumulation of all car journeys and bike journeys.
For example...
Let's say that the populace in general covers 1 billion Km by bike every
year. This would result in 29.5 deaths (half a death? never mind...).
If the populace is travelling 1bn Km by bike, then it's going to be
travelling much further by car. Let's say 500bn Km. The rate for cars
is 2.8 deaths per bn Km, giving us 1400 deaths.
On that basis, and bear in mind that my figure of 500 car Km for each
bike Km is purely a guess, there are 29.5 deaths by bike compared to
1400 deaths by car. This would make car journeys around 47 times more
dangerous than bike journeys.
Turning this around, though...
You _can_ say that, based on the official figures, if, in the course of
a year, a person cycles 10Km and also drives 10Km, then that person is
10x more likely to die while on the bike than in the car. And I suspect
that this is where you're getting your 'per journey' notion from, but it
only applies if that's all the travelling this person does in the year.
You can also say that, for a fixed distance that must be covered, e.g. a
daily commute of 10Km, if you travel that distance by bike each day then
the danger is 10x that of driving the same distance by car each day.
So... (is anyone still reading this??)
One could argue that the figures don't say anything that's of much interest.
They say that, for equal distance covered, cars are ten times safer than
bikes. Well, yes, that makes sense - bikes don't have a protective
metal shell and they are very vulnerable to other traffic.
We can infer, because the populace drives much, much more than it
cycles, that cars are more dangerous. And this is true, because approx
10 people per day die in car accidents, while the figure for cyclists is
(and I say this with no figures to back me up) surely very much lower.
But then we risk saying "lots of people die in car crashes because lots
of people drive cars". Well, duh! It becomes a self-fulfilling
argument, like when people say "it's always in the last place you look".
Colin