This is always the hard part. We have all the calculators at our disposal, but
at the end of the day, we need to decide what sorts of risks we're prepared to
take, what we really want to get out of the race, and things like that. There
does not exist a calculator that can answer these sorts of questions, so after
running the numbers and stats, the first thing we do is grab hold of the first
number the calculator gives us (or maybe a slightly adjusted version). But then
there are other questions -- what do you want to get out of this race ? Do you
want to run the perfect race ? Or do you want to run a good race ? Running a
PR is a reasonable goal for some, but for most first timers (and even second or
third timers) it is inevitable, hence not meaningful.
Thinking about this -- my philosophy is to simply not worry about running the
perfect race first time around. It's more important to have a good time and
get a score on the board. If I could pull negative splits, that would be great.
After thinking this over, and thinking over some advice I've received both here
and elsewhere, I've decided I'm going to start at about a 6:40 pace (2:54 pace)
and try to shoot for even of negative splits on the second half.
This makes it fairly unlikely that I'll break 2:50. But on the other hand, if
I end up with a time in the 2:51-2:54 range with negative splits on my first
try, I'll still be pretty happy.
Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/