DrLith said:You also will not see the same kind of "beginners' gains" over the next 6
months that you have seen over the last six months. Dropping 2 minutes/mile
off your pace from day zero to day 180 days is pretty typical. Dropping
another 2 minutes/mile from day 180 to day 360 would be unusual.
I guess that's what I'm asking - what is typical for the second
six months? Is it uniform or will I see faster drops at longer
distances?
(The second question is actually backwards - my long runs are
significantly slower than would be expected from my shorter runs.
Can I expect those runs to drop to the expected pace with
another six months of training at long distances?)
Quoted message said:And even if you did manage to get faster by a couple of minutes/mile, and
even if we conveniently forget about the last 8 miles of walking and go
based on your reported running pace of about 12:50 over the first 17-18
miles--2 minutes/mile faster would be a 10:50 pace or a 4:43 'thon.
My final few runs before the taper, all without incident, were:
10 1:49:47 10:54
13 2:33 11:45 (recovery pace)
10 1:49:36 10:54 (*)
21 4:23 12:30
(* long story there - first time was casual run with fellow
marathoner, second run was with hyper halfers who went out far too
fast but were too cute to leave the pack. Yet the times were
nearly identical. Spooky)
Quoted message said:Based on the comparing the results from each race, it looks
like Vancouver is "about" 25-30 sec/mile faster, for middling-to-backofpack
runners.
That's probably due to the lower altitude, and I was expecting it
to be a significant factor in any gains seen at a sea level race.
Quoted message said:DrLith predicts that you will run about 5:00 at Vancouver if you continue to
train sensibly. Mebbee 4:50.
And yes, you are a clockwatcher.
Well, maybe a Buddhist clockwatcher. I note the time but don't
get bent out of shape by it. What is, is. It's a habit to
collect data when you were trained as a physics major.
The real reason I'm asking is because I'm trying to psyche myself
up by filling out the paperwork and they ask for an estimated
finish time. Anyone expecting to take over 6 hours must start
early, and people who will take close to it are encouraged to
start early. But if you leave early and finish too fast they warn
of dire consequences. You know those volatile Canadians, don't
want to get on their bad side! They'll have my PR (it's on the
form), but I'm pretty much clueless on the estimated time.
I might not actually mail the application in until December, but
having a completed form hanging on the wall should be a good
motivational tool.
