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UK and Europe
Published
22 July 2004
Last activity
29 July 2004
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Mark Tranchant
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  1. Gawnsoft <[email hidden]> wrote in
    news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:

    But then again, there are people who have fallen out of aeroplanes
    thousands of feet up in the air without a parachute and still survived
    the landing.

    I've read reports (don't ask me where) saying that sometimes the cause of
    death in people falling from planes isn't the hitting the ground but
    something that happens higher up, e.g. injuries from explosions, sudden
    decompression, heart attacks etc. and that their landings may have meant
    they had a larger than would be expected chance of survival had they been
    alive to start with (as your statement above attests to).

    Still, in order of preference I'd pick staying in the aircraft if possible,
    and if not, I'd make sure I had a parachute if one was available. That
    said, I treated my wife to a tandem skydive for her birthday one year. She
    ended up with cracked ribs (thanks to a tight harness and her puking half
    way down). She'll not forget that birthday present in a while! :-/

    Graeme

  2. Gawnsoft said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 00:23:11 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:
    Simon Brooke said:

    in message <[email hidden]>, anonymous
    coward ([email hidden]'😉 wrote:

    > On Mon, 26 Jul 2004 06:23:56 +0000, Gawnsoft wrote:
    >
    >> On Mon, 26 Jul 2004 05:49:56 +0100, anonymous coward
    >> <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):
    >>>I have been in 2 such collisions and I have not hit either my head or
    >>>helmet. If your reasoning were correct, I should have suffered
    >>>braindamage because the energies involved in the collision were far
    >>>above what a helmet could have absorbed.
    >>
    >> Your head wasn't involved in either injury. So how are helmets
    >> relevant?
    >
    > I had a collision that (by your reckoning) should have exceeded their
    > capacity to protect me.

    You didn't have a collision to your head. So the helmet is irrelevant.

    See my previous reply to Gawnsoft. It simply shows that there is no simple
    relationship between speed / the type and severity of head injuries.

    There is no /absolute/ relationship. But at the population level,
    there's a fairly simple relationship between speed and severity of
    outcome.

    I don't doubt this, though I suspect that the spread will be fairly
    large, i.e. some people will be badly injured at low speeds; quite a lot
    of people will 'fluke it' even in high speed accidents.

    I would also wager that the mean speed at which a head injury equivalent t
    the 7mph test occurs will be quite at a speed quite a bit higher than 7mph.

    To be frank, I think that the claim that 'helmets only protect in crashes
    up to Xmph' is such a misreading of the helmet specifications that it
    discredits the anti-helmet-compulsion lobby (with which I largely agree)
    whenever it is aired.

    Quoted message said:

    But then again, there are people who have fallen out of aeroplanes
    thousands of feet up in the air without a parachute and still survived
    the landing.

    Does this invalidate the many

    Are there any?!

    Quoted message said:

    studies that show that jumping out of a
    plane in flight without a parachute is a good thing? No.

    There are no absolutes in anything. But that doesn't mean we should
    let our rational assessment of risk be overwhelmed by anecdotal flukery.

    What do you mean by flukery - the fact that occasionaly an accident
    happens that is not a worst-case scenario? In cycling the situation is
    opposite to that of parachuting.

    If you fall from a plane without a parachute, you hardly ever get away
    with it. If you fall from a bicycle, you hardly ever get seriously hurt.

    Should we conclude that bicycle helmets are useless, because of anecdotal
    flukeish low-speed accidents where cyclists received serious head
    injuries?

    Quoted message said:

    The difference between the parachutes and bicycle helmets stuff just
    that, with parachutes, the statistical flukery is blindingly obvious,
    /and/ doesn't run counter to the prejudices of 'common sense'.

    There is also the fact that there are no population-level studies
    showing, on average, increased injury to the
    falling-out-of-aeroplanes population since the introduction of
    parachutes.

    I don't think the parachute analogy is very helpful in this case.

    AC

  3. On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 05:01:47 GMT, Graeme
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:

    Gawnsoft <[email hidden]> wrote in
    news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:

    But then again, there are people who have fallen out of aeroplanes
    thousands of feet up in the air without a parachute and still survived
    the landing.

    I've read reports (don't ask me where) saying that sometimes the cause of
    death in people falling from planes isn't the hitting the ground but
    something that happens higher up, e.g. injuries from explosions, sudden
    decompression, heart attacks etc. and that their landings may have meant
    they had a larger than would be expected chance of survival had they been
    alive to start with (as your statement above attests to).

    Mm - I don't know. The only falls from many thousands of feet that I
    heard of being survived involved landings onto conifer forests, or the
    snow-covered sides of a mountain. Or both.

    So I'd say it's the avoidance of hard flat surfaces that's key.

    Quoted message said:

    Still, in order of preference I'd pick staying in the aircraft if possible,
    and if not, I'd make sure I had a parachute if one was available. That
    said, I treated my wife to a tandem skydive for her birthday one year. She
    ended up with cracked ribs (thanks to a tight harness and her puking half
    way down). She'll not forget that birthday present in a while! :-/

    Graeme

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  4. On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:06:41 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 04:32:35 +0000, Gawnsoft wrote:


    ....

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    But then again, there are people who have fallen out of aeroplanes
    thousands of feet up in the air without a parachute and still survived
    the landing.

    Does this invalidate the many

    Are there any?!

    To quote the line you respond to: " there are".

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  5. Gawnsoft said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:06:41 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 04:32:35 +0000, Gawnsoft wrote:


    ...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    But then again, there are people who have fallen out of aeroplanes
    thousands of feet up in the air without a parachute and still survived
    the landing.

    Does this invalidate the many

    Are there any?!

    To quote the line you respond to: " there are".

    No, not people... Studies!

  6. On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:06:41 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):
    ....

    Quoted message said:

    I would also wager that the mean speed at which a head injury equivalent t
    the 7mph test occurs will be quite at a speed quite a bit higher than 7mph.

    Pretty much because the typical human response does not involve moving
    as a dead weight. Then again, helmets interfere strongly with these
    reflexive momnts honed by evolution to protect delicate brains from
    falling.

    Quoted message said:


    To be frank, I think that the claim that 'helmets only protect in crashes
    up to Xmph' is such a misreading of the helmet specifications

    Helmets are only /designed to protect/ in crashes. A subtle, but
    important distinction.

    Quoted message said:

    that it
    discredits the anti-helmet-compulsion lobby (with which I largely agree)
    whenever it is aired.

    You have some leanings towards compulsion? !?!

    Myself, I now largely am anti-helmet.

    Even when I started out, with the standard 'common sense' pro-helmet
    viewpoint.I was never in favour of helmet compulsion.

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  7. Gawnsoft <[email hidden]> wrote in
    news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:

    Mm - I don't know. The only falls from many thousands of feet that I
    heard of being survived involved landings onto conifer forests, or the
    snow-covered sides of a mountain. Or both.

    Almost certainly, I've heard of those ones too. However, there were some
    controversial claims that there was evidence of some of the Lockerbie
    victims being alive for at least some time after reaching the ground.
    That's not to say that if they were alive that their long term survival was
    likely even if they had received medical attention straight away.

    Quoted message said:

    So I'd say it's the avoidance of hard flat surfaces that's key.

    A concept which I base my life upon. Any hard flat surface in my home
    rapidly becomes covered in paper, cables, pens, clothes (whatever is most
    appropriate) thus rendering it non-flat and slightly less hard. Whether
    this would afford any protection to a wayward skydiver who happened to
    crash through my ceiling I very much doubt.

    Graeme

  8. On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:06:41 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):
    ....

    Quoted message said:

    What do you mean by flukery - the fact that occasionaly an accident
    happens that is not a worst-case scenario? In cycling the situation is
    opposite to that of parachuting.

    That things happen that are statistical outliers. Or at least many
    standard deviations away from the median experience.

    Quoted message said:

    If you fall from a plane without a parachute, you hardly ever get away
    with it. If you fall from a bicycle, you hardly ever get seriously hurt.

    Quite so.

    So you would expect parachutes to be used for falls.

    And expect bicycle helmets to be thoroughly optional for falls.

    The difficulty is that bike helmets are only designed for falls.
    Which, as you point out, are low risk affairs in the first place..

    But helmets are being propagandised as serious and effective
    protection against damage from motor vehicles. *

    And are being made mandatory for this purpose. i.e,. made mandatory
    on the cases for which they were never designed, and against which
    they are not particularly effective. With many population level
    studies, (i.e. the ones in which statistical outliers have least sway)
    showing that they are /worse/ than no helmets at all.

    * A classic example, the recent newspaper headline which said 'A
    helmet would have saved her' in a report on a coroner's-type report
    for when an old lady cyclist was driven into by the driver of a cement
    mixer, who was watching a young female pedestrian instead of the road.

    No one in the report said such a thing. A PC who attended did get
    quoted as saying ' a helmet might have saved her', but a) that's not
    the same thing, b) he seems to have no particular or specialist
    expertise on helmets'

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  9. Gawnsoft said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:06:41 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):
    ...

    Quoted message said:

    I would also wager that the mean speed at which a head injury equivalent t
    the 7mph test occurs will be quite at a speed quite a bit higher than 7mph.

    Pretty much because the typical human response does not involve moving
    as a dead weight. Then again, helmets interfere strongly with these
    reflexive momnts honed by evolution to protect delicate brains from
    falling.

    Quoted message said:

    To be frank, I think that the claim that 'helmets only protect in crashes
    up to Xmph' is such a misreading of the helmet specifications

    Helmets are only /designed to protect/ in crashes. A subtle, but
    important distinction.

    I'm sorry if I've misquoted you, though I still think it would be better
    not to make this claim.

    I don't know the exact thought processes that went into helmet design, but
    I gather the 12mph figure came from someone reading the test
    specifications, not the design brief. The designer may or may not have
    considered that a helmet meeting their test specifications would provide
    useful protection in more severe accidents. If anyone _knows_ how the
    targets for bike helmets were reached I would be interested.

    Incidentally, part of the specifications are about spreading point loads
    (e.g. sharp stones) and not just about energy absorbtion so in any case
    the 12mph claim is not telling the 'whole story'.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    that it
    discredits the anti-helmet-compulsion lobby (with which I largely agree)
    whenever it is aired.

    You have some leanings towards compulsion? !?!

    No, the opposite. I largely agree with the anti-helmet-compulsion lobby,
    not the helmet-compulsion lobby.

    Quoted message said:

    Myself, I now largely am anti-helmet.

    Even when I started out, with the standard 'common sense' pro-helmet
    viewpoint.I was never in favour of helmet compulsion.

    Nor was I, and I'm still not. I even wrote to my MP about it.

    AC

  10. Steve Almond said:

    Very clever. Your attachment to 7 mph is touching. Does 8 mph mean instant
    death? Is it possible that at 11 mph a helmet might mean the difference
    between concussion and brain damage?

    It's /possible/, yes, but the salient point in this argument (which I
    used to use to justify always wearing a helmet, btw) is that since the
    helmet wearing rates went up dramatically in countries following
    mandatory helmets for cyclists there was *no* effect on the
    killed/seriously injured rates in the cycling population. We cannot say
    with any certainty /why/ they haven't helped, that's just conjecture,
    but we do have sound evidence that, for whatever reason, the above
    effect doesn't happen at any degree of significance.

    Quoted message said:

    avoid head injury is not completely successful, but the helmet just makes
    that bit of difference.....?

    Working from the above, either it doesn't make that bit of difference,
    or there are a similar number of cases where it makes things worse (for
    example, the larger volume of the helmet to catch on things and put
    rotations into effect on the neck and spine may make some injuries
    worse, which is again conjecture in terms of what actually happens in
    the accidents but the bottom line is *no change* in KSI with more helmet
    wearing.

    Quoted message said:

    bicycle), I had no say in my bodies attitude when it hit the deck.
    But that's me, many people here have convinced themselves that either:

    1. They are skilful enough to avoid all accidents (30 years without coming
    off.....).
    2. They can defy the laws of physics (I'll keep my head from hitting
    anything hard....).

    There is a significant degree of reflex action involved in protecting
    the head, even in instances where it does no good at all, but this is a
    side issue to the facts I've previously outlined of no improvement in
    KSI with more helmet wearing.

    Quoted message said:

    3. They decide helmets are useless in some defined cases (say, hit a car
    head first which is travelling at 20/30/40 mph), therefore helmets are
    useless in all cases and not worth wearing.

    The data tells us they don't make any difference in KSIs. That isn't to
    say they don't help remove a lot of pain and discomfort resulting from
    less serious injuries, and for that reason alone they should be
    considered. But it's hardly conclusive as arguments go, especially as
    they'll reduce comfort on every trip where they're used.

    Quoted message said:

    And I guess the saddest are the ones who will teach their kids to ride
    properly on a well-maintained bike, thus negating the need for a helmet.
    Said kid is never to have a moment of inattention; never to be reaching into
    back pocket for Mars bar at the moment when the braking tutorial in urgently
    required; never to be admiring the countryside and just have a silly 'off'?

    This suggests that you should always err on the side of "just in case".
    Well, fact is that more kids end up in A&E from falls while playing
    than cycling accidents, so if you /really/ think that then you should
    make your kids wear lids if they're running about. Lots of people get
    into A&E with head injuries from falling downstairs. It's possible
    they'd be mitigated with a helmet, so do you (or your kids) always wear
    crash helmets when using stairs? If not, why not?
    This probably sounds like I'm just being facetious, but it's a real
    question as the same logic /should/ work in both situations. But it
    doesn't, so why doesn't it? I think the answer is that those people
    very familiar with stairs and running around in parks know very well
    that the chances of them being in a nasty accident as a result are very
    slim, so slim that it isn't worth assuming they'll have an accident.
    And the same really does go for cycling if you look at the real injury
    rates.

    Didn't have a helmet on my well maintained bike as a kid, as they didn't
    exist at the time. I did fall off it, usually because of my own
    stupidity trying daft things, but I never had a trip to A&E as a result,
    and I never hit my head. And that was (and more to the point remains) a
    perfectly normal profile for a child cyclist.

    Quoted message said:

    Despite this, I have found the arguments put forward (particularly in the
    references quoted) to be compelling. I, too, thought the matter of helmet
    wearing was black and white; now I see all shades of grey....

    Well, that's about the size of it. What finally tipped me over the edge
    of not bothering very often was looking at how people do things in the
    Netherlands where the cycle culture has never disappeared as it has
    here. People who wear helmets use them for serious sport cycling and
    never bother for utility cycling. The former is far more likely to
    involve falling off in a nasty manner than the latter. Spend a weekend
    in Amsterdam, where you will probably see more bikes and cyclists than
    you have ever seen before in your life, and count the helmets. I think
    I saw 10 the weekend I was there, 7 on roadies heading out for a Sunday
    morning hack, 1 on an MTB in All The Gear, probably also out for a
    sporting hack, and a couple of tourists piled with panniers who almost
    certainly weren't local. If there was a real problem with kids having
    off moments where helmets might Really Help then most Dutch folk you'd
    meet would have their heads covered in scars. But they don't. The
    reason for that is that is that cycling simply isn't nearly as dangerous
    as popular perception in the UK likes to think.

    Pete.
    --
    Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer
    Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital
    Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK
    net [email hidden] http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/

  11. Steve Almond said:

    And I guess the saddest are the ones who will teach their kids to ride
    properly on a well-maintained bike, thus negating the need for a helmet.

    I'd take offence at being called sad but I know you're not talking about
    me because I didn't say anything about "negating the need for a helmet".

    d.

  12. Gawnsoft said:

    Does this invalidate the many studies that show that jumping out of a
    plane in flight without a parachute is a good thing? No.

    I hope you mean "...is *not* a good thing".

    --
    Mark.

  13. in message <[email hidden]>, Graeme

    (') said:

    Gawnsoft <[email hidden]> wrote in
    news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:

    Mm - I don't know. The only falls from many thousands of feet that I
    heard of being survived involved landings onto conifer forests, or
    the snow-covered sides of a mountain. Or both.

    Almost certainly, I've heard of those ones too. However, there were
    some controversial claims that there was evidence of some of the
    Lockerbie victims being alive for at least some time after reaching
    the ground.

    This _is_ true. I have personally spoken to people who were out looking
    for survivors on the night, and some were still alive and conscious
    several minutes after the explosion. The cockpit landed within 150
    yards of a colleague's house.

    Even sadder, there was just one local person on the plane, and her
    father (whom I knew) heard the explosion (although obviously he didn't
    know what it was till later).

    --
    [email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

    ;; When your hammer is C++, everything begins to look like a thumb.

  14. Gawnsoft said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:06:41 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):
    ...

    Quoted message said:

    What do you mean by flukery - the fact that occasionaly an accident
    happens that is not a worst-case scenario? In cycling the situation is
    opposite to that of parachuting.

    That things happen that are statistical outliers. Or at least many
    standard deviations away from the median experience.

    <pedant>Standard deviations are only relevent to the mean, surely.</pedant>

  15. Mark Tranchant said:
    Gawnsoft said:

    Does this invalidate the many studies that show that jumping out of a
    plane in flight without a parachute is a good thing? No.

    I hope you mean "...is *not* a good thing".


    I kind of assume that there are very few formal studies about whether
    it's good to wear a parachute jumping out of a plane. There was one
    pretty conclusive one that it's a good idea when jumping from a
    balloon, but since then, no one's bothered to check that it's still
    the case.

    Ambrose

  16. davek said:
    Steve Almond said:

    And I guess the saddest are the ones who will teach their kids to ride
    properly on a well-maintained bike, thus negating the need for a helmet.

    I'd take offence at being called sad but I know you're not talking
    about me because I didn't say anything about "negating the need for a
    helmet".

    I think he meant 'sad' to apply to the situation, where it means that
    something very regretful is taking place. 'Sad' referring to people is
    a pretty silly word, IMHO.

    A

  17. Ambrose Nankivell <[email hidden]> wrote in
    news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:

    There was one
    pretty conclusive one that it's a good idea when jumping from a
    balloon, but since then, no one's bothered to check that it's still
    the case.

    So you're working on potentially outdated evidence Ambrose possibly with an
    unrepresantively small sample size. I suggest we start a more up to date
    round of testing. As people would get all mushy and sentimental if cuddly
    animals were used I suggest we start with P**l S***h and work our way down
    through to lawyers, estate agents etc. ;-)

    Graeme

  18. On Mon, 26 Jul 2004 16:07:00 +0100, "Steve Almond"
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):
    ....

    Quoted message said:

    And I guess the saddest are the ones who will teach their kids to ride
    properly on a well-maintained bike, thus negating the need for a helmet.

    No - saddest of all are those who teach their kids that riding with a
    helmet on negates the need for either riding properly or a
    well-maintained bike.

    Quoted message said:

    Said kid is never to have a moment of inattention; never to be reaching into
    back pocket for Mars bar at the moment when the braking tutorial in urgently
    required; never to be admiring the countryside and just have a silly 'off'?

    Silly off's seldom cause non-trivial injury.

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  19. On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:44:56 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:
    Gawnsoft said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 06:06:41 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:

    On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 04:32:35 +0000, Gawnsoft wrote:


    ...

    Quoted message said:

    > But then again, there are people who have fallen out of aeroplanes
    > thousands of feet up in the air without a parachute and still survived
    > the landing.
    >
    > Does this invalidate the many

    Are there any?!

    To quote the line you respond to: " there are".

    No, not people... Studies!

    Yes - mainly carried out by forensic examiners...

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  20. On Tue, 27 Jul 2004 07:10:52 +0100, anonymous coward
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):
    ....

    Quoted message said:

    Incidentally, part of the specifications are about spreading point loads
    (e.g. sharp stones) and not just about energy absorbtion so in any case
    the 12mph claim is not telling the 'whole story'.

    True - but most helmets have very large, sharp stone-sized gaps in the
    carapace.

    And the penetration-resistant shell is typically /very/ thin.

    So again, if it's a large sharp stone, it's likely to break the
    helmet. (And they do not protect against impact well during such
    brittle failure modes.)

    If the stone is taller than the the helmet's thickness, it might go
    through the air gaps.

    If the stone is smaller than the helmet's thickness, reflexive ducking
    and letting hands shoulder bum etc take the initial impact is likely
    to protect.

    Best not to be falling off at high uncontrolled speeds, really.

    And if you are, then we're back into the problem of helmets not being
    much cop under such conditions.

    Pretty much, the situations where helmets might be good are when going
    downhill at speed.

    But would you go as fast if you didn't have a helmet on? As Bell's
    proudly say on all their helmet packaging, a helmet is 'Courage for
    your head'(tm).

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

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