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Armstrong miscalculation?

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Road Cycling
Published
21 April 2003
Last activity
29 April 2003
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Andy Coggan
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  1. "Dave" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    The L'Equipe reporter had also interviewed Armstrong:

    Q: We had the feeling that at the end, you were one of the strongest but also one of the most
    marked. Could you have done anything?

    A: Lots of guys were marked. The endgame was very tactical. Everyone was watching for the
    favorites to jump. It's the nature of the game even if,


    in

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    the final analysis, it was negative racing. And when Vinokourov had 200 meters, I knew that it
    was over especially since Kessler was there.


    Telekom

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    is very strong on paper, but it also proved itself on the ground. In the end, I didn't even try
    to sprint. It doesn't really interest me to


    finish

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    second again at this race.

    Yeah nevermind finishing 2nd and picking up a few extra bucks for your


    teammates. 8th is so much

    Quoted message said:

    better

    Roy Stetina was once widely quoted as saying "2nd is no better than 5th" - maybe Armstrong picked up
    the general idea from him.

    Andy Coggan

  2. Tom Kunich <[email hidden]> schreef in berichtnieuws
    [email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Oscar Mannheim" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that


    you

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    don't have cagey thoughts, just nice simple one's like, "that


    [censored]

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    isn't going to do me a third time."

    Come on, give Armstrong a little credit. He just chased the


    strongest

    Quoted message said:

    riders, he followed every move from Boogerd and Kessler. It's just


    that

    Quoted message said:

    simple.

    That's true and he wasn't about to tow them up to Vinokourov. Lance said that when he saw
    Vinokourov go he knew that there was the win dancing away. Why should he tow two strong guys up
    there just to be put down? That was the smart move for him.

    Armstrong lost four seconds to Boogerd in the last half km. If he just did not want to tow the
    others, he would have just stayed in Boogerd's wheel, but he was not able to do that. Looks pretty
    clear to me that the Cauberg was a bridge too far for Armstrong. His claim that he was in good
    enough shape to win just seems silly. It was clear, however, that his chances were very slim when he
    refused to do any work at all in the lead group. Whenever he came in front, he started looking at
    others, drinking from his bottle, etc. That sort of behaviour doesn't make anyone popular, and I
    expected a better sprinter like Rebellin or Di Luca to catch him if he escaped and still outsprint
    him, just out of anger because of Armstrong being such an ass.

  3. "Benjamin Weiner" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Oscar Mannheim said:

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet

    Quoted message said:

    Did you see Boogerd trying to win? If he had been he would have followed Vinokourov.

    Quoted message said:

    Boogerd did go after Vinokourov (didn't you see the race?). The problem


    was

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    that Boogerd was alone, Vinokourov benefited from being part of the strongest team for the day,
    Telekom.

    No he didn't see the race (nor did I). Don't forget that on the west side of the pond, there is
    not live coverage of most races (excepting grand tours on OLN cable, which started only a few
    years ago; they'll show an hour of Amstel on Thursday.) But hey, that never stops Koach K.

    If that's the truth, then it probably means that Kunich followed the race on cyclingnews live report
    which says: "Vinokourov gets a gap, and suddenly Boogerd launches himself from the rear to the front
    and goes after Vino. Armstrong once again marks the move and sets off in pursuit. Vinokourov is
    holding his gap and hammering downhill." and then I don't understand why Kunich is saying that
    Boogerd didn't follow Vinokourov.........

  4. "James P Spooner" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:

    See previous post by Robert Chung. I don't think Lance is the kind of guy that would compromise
    his chances for victory. I also don't think he would ride himself into the ground for 260 km just
    to see Boogerd lose. After Lance is no longer a Tour contender (which might not ever happen), I'd
    like to see him dedicate a season chasing classics. I could see him doing well in RvV potentially.
    Lemond did 'em.

    James, I think lance is exactly the guy that would compromise his chance at victory in this race if
    it could help him in the tour. I believe the race was open to for him to sell if the opportunity was
    right ( I don't believe he did this year). I do 100% believe he did 01. I think he knew he was going
    to lose to Dekker, but Dekker wasn't a 100% sure, so he told him you win, but when the tour comes
    your guys will help us on the front. I think Lance is exactly the kind of guy who would sell his
    teammates out for the tour and his chance at glory (actually I think they already know, so it isn't
    selling out and if your are on the tour team it means less work in July). I think he is exactly the
    guy who doesn't have a 100% confidence in his team this year and races are for sale. I think if he
    could have made a deal with one of the teams he would have. I think he is the kind of guy who would
    hold a grudge toward Rabobank, and I think he does. I also know that if you are presented with a
    situation were Vino wins, or Booger it is no choice. I also think he is the kind of guy who list
    palmares page 59th place at Tour of Flanders, and pack finish at Paris-Nice (why because he only
    does 10 races a year) and sometime his tactics could be questioned, and he could have just made a
    tactical error, or wasn't strong enough. I could be wrong, I hope I am wrong about the race selling,
    but I think that this is cycling and I have heard this from too many people for it not to be true.
    Everyone on this list whines about drugs, at least I can understand drugs. Win at all cost I can
    deal with. What I don't understand and don't care for are the politics of bike racing. The race
    fixing, and race selling. That is the [censored] that bugs me. The hey 3x prize money [censored] that pros do in
    order to win. The let us win this, and we will help you next week (goes with win at all cost I
    guess). I know it is the heritage of bike racing, but it is does give bike racing a slimy feeling.

    RVD

  5. "James P Spooner" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:

    See previous post by Robert Chung. I don't think Lance is the kind of guy that would compromise
    his chances for victory. I also don't think he would ride himself into the ground for 260 km just
    to see Boogerd lose. After Lance is no longer a Tour contender (which might not ever happen), I'd
    like to see him dedicate a season chasing classics. I could see him doing well in RvV potentially.
    Lemond did 'em.

    James P. Spooner

    Or ignore what I wrote and read from cyclingnews the booger quote.

    Boogerd was angry at himself, but also at Lance Armstrong, who was in the leading group too and
    closely marking Boogerd. "I got the impression Lance didn't really want me personally to lose, but
    the Rabobank team. I don't know why. Ask him. I don't want any quarrels."

    RVD

  6. "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote

    Quoted message said:

    I think lance is exactly the guy that would compromise his chance at victory in this race if it
    could help him in the tour. [...] Everyone on this list whines about drugs, at least I can
    understand drugs. Win at all cost I can deal with. What I don't understand and don't care for are
    the politics of bike racing. The race fixing, and race selling. That is the [censored] that bugs me. The
    hey 3x prize money [censored] that pros do in order to win. The let us win this, and we will help you
    next week (goes with win at all cost I guess). I know it is the heritage of bike racing, but it is
    does give bike racing a slimy feeling.

    Good lord, this is what I like the most. It's n-person game theory in action, with time perdurance
    on agreements, temporary coalitions, side payments, reneging on bargains, bluffs, calls,
    unenforceable contracts,

    more interesting than who was doping. This is what makes bike racing much, much better than sports
    where there are only two teams on the field at a time.

  7. "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote

    Quoted message said:

    I think lance is exactly the guy that would compromise his chance at victory in this race if it
    could help him in the tour. [...] Everyone on this list whines about drugs, at least I can
    understand drugs. Win at all cost I can deal with. What I don't understand and don't care for
    are the politics of bike racing. The race fixing, and race selling. That is the [censored] that bugs
    me. The hey 3x prize money [censored] that pros do in order to win. The let us win this, and we will
    help you next week (goes with win at all cost I guess). I know it is the heritage of bike
    racing, but it is does give bike racing a slimy feeling.

    Good lord, this is what I like the most. It's n-person game theory in action, with time perdurance
    on agreements, temporary coalitions, side payments, reneging on bargains, bluffs, calls,
    unenforceable contracts,

    Quoted message said:

    more interesting than who was doping. This is what makes bike racing much, much better than sports
    where there are only two teams on the field at a time.

    Agreed. Much prefer complex events with rich, nuanced, very human outcomes. Or we could just have
    TT's all the time. Zzzzzz......

  8. "Dave" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    Yeah nevermind finishing 2nd and picking up a few extra bucks for your


    teammates. 8th is so much

    Quoted message said:

    better

    Dave

    Armstrong picks up more money for his teammates during the month of July than most teams
    get all year.

    -T

  9. Steve Blankenship said:


    But that's bike racing. It happens. And it doesn't diminish Vinokourov's win at all; he made the
    perfect move given the circumstances and it paid off. That's why I love one-day races; no matter
    who's the strongest, you just never know.


    Vinokourov's win was magnificent. He now has confidence that he can win one days as well as stage
    races. I hope he capitalizes on this confidence many more times.

  10. I liked Vinokourov's Dekkerish move. He stole the race.

    Ken

    "Steve Blankenship" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Boyd Speerschneider" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in
    :"]news:[email hidden]:

    <snip>

    > I have to agree with you. Can you imagine how Armstrong's teammates feel after working their
    > butt off all day to put him into position


    to

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > win, then not only does he play the "anybody but Boogerd" game, but then doesn't even
    > contest the final sprint?
    >
    > Of course, we're assuming that Armstrong was deliberately racing negatively...it could be
    > that he thought Vinokourov would come back
    > w/o anyway, and he was doing his best to avoid a three-peat.
    >
    > Andy Coggan

    Maybe Armstrong was just cooked?

    Which is what I asked at the outset.

    Quoted message said:

    Or maybe he was just feigning to be cooked so the others would chase?

    Which is why I titled the thread "Armstrong miscalculation?" (since his ploy, if it were one,
    didn't work).

    Andy Coggan

    Yup, a momentary lapse for both LA and Boogerd; but it also speaks to the caginess of Vinokourov's
    move, knowing they would be marking each other heavily. Which makes sense, knowing the LA/Rabo
    history at Amstel. Vinokourov also said he had to do it since he wouldn't have had a chance


    if

    Quoted message said:

    he'd gotten to the Cauberg in the same bunch with those guys. The right move at the right time -
    gotta love it. Bit of Zoetemelk in there, don't you think?

    SB

  11. "Dave" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    Yeah nevermind finishing 2nd and picking up a few extra bucks for


    your teammates. 8th is so much

    Quoted message said:

    better

    Yeah, there's nothing that motivates a guy more than taking a chance of getting hurt in a small race
    instead of peaking at the right time and winning a big one.

  12. Err, don't you recognize sarcasm when you read it?

    "Steve Blankenship" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote

    Quoted message said:

    I think lance is exactly the guy that would compromise his


    chance at

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    victory in this race if it could help him in the tour. [...] Everyone on this list whines
    about drugs, at least I can understand drugs. Win at all cost I


    can

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    deal with. What I don't understand and don't care for are the


    politics

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    of bike racing. The race fixing, and race selling. That is the


    [censored]

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    that bugs me. The hey 3x prize money [censored] that pros do in order


    to

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    win. The let us win this, and we will help you next week (goes


    with

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    win at all cost I guess). I know it is the heritage of bike


    racing,

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    but it is does give bike racing a slimy feeling.

    Good lord, this is what I like the most. It's n-person game theory


    in

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    action, with time perdurance on agreements, temporary coalitions,


    side

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    payments, reneging on bargains, bluffs, calls, unenforceable


    contracts,

    great. Much

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    more interesting than who was doping. This is what makes bike


    racing much,

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    much better than sports where there are only two teams on the


    field at a

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    time.

    Agreed. Much prefer complex events with rich, nuanced, very human


    outcomes.

    Quoted message said:

    Or we could just have TT's all the time. Zzzzzz......

  13. Maybe it was the quote of Boogerd's: "I was the strongest but I didn't win. I really hate this
    feeling. I gambled on waiting, but my sprint was too late." Or maybe it was the posting somewhere
    here during the race that said that Vinokourov went and the other's just looked back and forth at
    each other.

    Oh, but hey, you saw it on TV so Michael must be full of [censored].

    "Oscar Mannheim" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Benjamin Weiner" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Oscar Mannheim said:

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    > Did you see Boogerd trying to win? If he had been he would


    have

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > followed Vinokourov.

    Quoted message said:

    Boogerd did go after Vinokourov (didn't you see the race?). The


    problem

    Quoted message said:

    was

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    that Boogerd was alone, Vinokourov benefited from being part of


    the

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    strongest team for the day, Telekom.

    No he didn't see the race (nor did I). Don't forget that on the west side of the pond, there is
    not live coverage of most races (excepting grand tours on OLN cable, which started only a few


    years

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    ago; they'll show an hour of Amstel on Thursday.) But hey, that never stops Koach K.

    If that's the truth, then it probably means that Kunich followed the


    race on

    Quoted message said:

    cyclingnews live report which says: "Vinokourov gets a gap, and


    suddenly

    Quoted message said:

    Boogerd launches himself from the rear to the front and goes after


    Vino.

    Quoted message said:

    Armstrong once again marks the move and sets off in pursuit.


    Vinokourov is

    Quoted message said:

    holding his gap and hammering downhill." and then I don't understand


    why

    Quoted message said:

    Kunich is saying that Boogerd didn't follow Vinokourov.........

  14. message "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Oscar Mannheim said:

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that


    you

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    don't have cagey thoughts, just nice simple one's like, "that


    [censored]

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    isn't going to do me a third time."

    Boogerd beat Armstrong _once_ in Amstel Gold - the other time Dekker beat Armstrong, even though
    Dekker did most of the work.

    I was talking about Rabobank.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Come on, give Armstrong a little credit. He just chased the


    strongest

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    riders, he followed every move from Boogerd and Kessler. It's just


    that

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    simple.

    Armstrong rode a very passive race for certain. I don't know what he was hoping for as he knew
    that Boogerd could beat him in an uphill sprint. Armstrong was following and chasing but he never
    attacked. Perhaps the fact that A-G came a week earlier means that Armstrong was not in top form.
    Let's see what he does in L-B-L.

    Armstong knew that the race wasn't hard enough for long enough to be selective enough for him. He
    rode at the front with the best guys. Why should he contend a sprint he couldn't win?

  15. Do you, o' wise one? ;-)

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Err, don't you recognize sarcasm when you read it?

    "Steve Blankenship" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote
    > I think lance is exactly the guy that would compromise his


    chance at

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > victory in this race if it could help him in the tour. [...] Everyone on this list whines
    > about drugs, at least I can understand drugs. Win at all cost I


    can

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > deal with. What I don't understand and don't care for are the


    politics

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > of bike racing. The race fixing, and race selling. That is the


    [censored]

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > that bugs me. The hey 3x prize money [censored] that pros do in order


    to

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > win. The let us win this, and we will help you next week (goes


    with

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > win at all cost I guess). I know it is the heritage of bike


    racing,

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > but it is does give bike racing a slimy feeling.

    Good lord, this is what I like the most. It's n-person game theory


    in

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    action, with time perdurance on agreements, temporary coalitions,


    side

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    payments, reneging on bargains, bluffs, calls, unenforceable


    contracts,

    Quoted message said:

    great. Much

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    more interesting than who was doping. This is what makes bike


    racing much,

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    much better than sports where there are only two teams on the


    field at a

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    time.

    Agreed. Much prefer complex events with rich, nuanced, very human


    outcomes.

    Quoted message said:

    Or we could just have TT's all the time. Zzzzzz......


  16. What's the record for one person posting consecutive posts to one thread?

    Peter

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Err, don't you recognize sarcasm when you read it?

    "Steve Blankenship" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote
    > I think lance is exactly the guy that would compromise his


    chance at

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > victory in this race if it could help him in the tour. [...] Everyone on this list whines
    > about drugs, at least I can understand drugs. Win at all cost I


    can

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > deal with. What I don't understand and don't care for are the


    politics

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > of bike racing. The race fixing, and race selling. That is the


    [censored]

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > that bugs me. The hey 3x prize money [censored] that pros do in order


    to

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > win. The let us win this, and we will help you next week (goes


    with

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > win at all cost I guess). I know it is the heritage of bike


    racing,

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > but it is does give bike racing a slimy feeling.

    Good lord, this is what I like the most. It's n-person game theory


    in

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    action, with time perdurance on agreements, temporary coalitions,


    side

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    payments, reneging on bargains, bluffs, calls, unenforceable


    contracts,

    Quoted message said:

    great. Much

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    more interesting than who was doping. This is what makes bike


    racing much,

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    much better than sports where there are only two teams on the


    field at a

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    time.

    Agreed. Much prefer complex events with rich, nuanced, very human


    outcomes.

    Quoted message said:

    Or we could just have TT's all the time. Zzzzzz......


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