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Armstrong miscalculation?

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Road Cycling
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21 April 2003
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29 April 2003
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Andy Coggan
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  1. "Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Boyd Speerschneider" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in
    :"]news:[email hidden]:

    <snip>

    Quoted message said:

    I have to agree with you. Can you imagine how Armstrong's teammates feel after working their
    butt off all day to put him into position to win, then not only does he play the "anybody but
    Boogerd" game, but then doesn't even contest the final sprint?

    Of course, we're assuming that Armstrong was deliberately racing negatively...it could be that
    he thought Vinokourov would come back
    w/o anyway, and he was doing his best to avoid a three-peat.

    Andy Coggan

    Maybe Armstrong was just cooked?

    Which is what I asked at the outset.

    Quoted message said:

    Or maybe he was just feigning to be cooked so the others would chase?

    Which is why I titled the thread "Armstrong miscalculation?" (since his ploy, if it were one,
    didn't work).

    Andy Coggan

    Yup, a momentary lapse for both LA and Boogerd; but it also speaks to the caginess of Vinokourov's
    move, knowing they would be marking each other heavily. Which makes sense, knowing the LA/Rabo
    history at Amstel. Vinokourov also said he had to do it since he wouldn't have had a chance if he'd
    gotten to the Cauberg in the same bunch with those guys. The right move at the right time - gotta
    love it. Bit of Zoetemelk in there, don't you think?

    SB

  2. "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message


    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:


    Quoted message said:


    So while Armstrong was marking Boogerd, Vinokourov slipped away for the eventual win. Question
    is, was this just a tactical error on Armstrong's part (w/ hindsight of course being 20-20), or
    did he just not have the


    legs

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    to win himself?

    Maybe it is because Lance sold the race last year to Rabo for some work at the tour. Then Rabo
    screwed them first chance they had at the tour. Then lance and Rabo made up (kiss kiss), and he
    lets Booger win stage 16 in exchange for some more time on the front. Then Rabo screws Postal
    again by not working the next day, and puttin two GC guys in the break pissing them off more.
    Fastforward to the tour of Holland when on stage 4 postal let the break go and refuse to chase
    even thought they were in the lead thus forcing Rabo to work, and continuing the bad blood. Or
    maybe lance just sucks cause he races like 10 times a year, but my money is on hate for Rabo. RVD

    My money is on-

    a) Lance wants a classic win this year;
    b) He missed the break, and did not want to tow up the rest, &
    c) Why go for second or third?

    Lets see LBL.

    Simon

    Lance for 6!

  3. "Simon" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message


    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:


    Quoted message said:


    So while Armstrong was marking Boogerd, Vinokourov slipped away for


    the

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    eventual win. Question is, was this just a tactical error on


    Armstrong's

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    part (w/ hindsight of course being 20-20), or did he just not have the


    legs

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    to win himself?

    Maybe it is because Lance sold the race last year to Rabo for some work at the tour. Then Rabo
    screwed them first chance they had at the tour. Then lance and Rabo made up (kiss kiss), and
    he lets Booger win stage 16 in exchange for some more time on the front. Then Rabo screws
    Postal again by not working the next day, and puttin two GC guys in the break pissing them off
    more. Fastforward to the tour of Holland when on stage 4 postal let the break go and refuse to
    chase even thought they were in the lead thus forcing Rabo to work, and continuing the bad
    blood. Or maybe lance just sucks cause he races like 10 times a year, but my money is on hate
    for Rabo. RVD

    My money is on-

    a) Lance wants a classic win this year;
    b) He missed the break, and did not want to tow up the rest, &
    c) Why go for second or third?

    wrong on all counts - RVD's theory is backed up by some of BoogerD's post-race comments.

  4. WooGoogle said:

    OTOH, maybe Armstrong was remembering those two(?) classics wins that Boogerd got by sitting on
    Armstrong's wheel.

    One for Boogerd (sitting on A's wheel), one for Dekker (cooperating and leading out the sprint).

  5. See previous post by Robert Chung. I don't think Lance is the kind of guy that would compromise his
    chances for victory. I also don't think he would ride himself into the ground for 260 km just to
    see Boogerd lose. After Lance is no longer a Tour contender (which might not ever happen), I'd like
    to see him dedicate a season chasing classics. I could see him doing well in RvV potentially.
    Lemond did 'em.

    James P. Spooner

    "Simon" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Rik Van Diesel" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message


    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:


    Quoted message said:


    So while Armstrong was marking Boogerd, Vinokourov slipped away for


    the

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    eventual win. Question is, was this just a tactical error on


    Armstrong's

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    part (w/ hindsight of course being 20-20), or did he just not have the


    legs

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    to win himself?

    Maybe it is because Lance sold the race last year to Rabo for some work at the tour. Then Rabo
    screwed them first chance they had at the tour. Then lance and Rabo made up (kiss kiss), and
    he lets Booger win stage 16 in exchange for some more time on the front. Then Rabo screws
    Postal again by not working the next day, and puttin two GC guys in the break pissing them off
    more. Fastforward to the tour of Holland when on stage 4 postal let the break go and refuse to
    chase even thought they were in the lead thus forcing Rabo to work, and continuing the bad
    blood. Or maybe lance just sucks cause he races like 10 times a year, but my money is on hate
    for Rabo. RVD

    My money is on-

    a) Lance wants a classic win this year;
    b) He missed the break, and did not want to tow up the rest, &
    c) Why go for second or third?

    Lets see LBL.

    Simon

    Lance for 6!

  6. "Ewoud Dronkert" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    WooGoogle said:

    OTOH, maybe Armstrong was remembering those two(?) classics wins that Boogerd got by sitting on
    Armstrong's wheel.

    One for Boogerd (sitting on A's wheel), one for Dekker (cooperating and leading out the sprint).


    Armstrong was *een klein beetje* nonplussed at the start of the Amstel when Mart Smeets was chatting
    to him in front of thousands of fans and said something like "You've been beaten twice by Rabobank
    riders: Boogerd beat your ass and Dekker beat your ass - what are you going to do this year?"

    Despite this he was actually in quite a good mood at the start.

    Jeff

  7. "Oscar Mannheim" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    OTOH, maybe Armstrong was remembering those two(?) classics wins


    that

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Boogerd got by sitting on Armstrong's wheel. This time, he was


    making

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    sure it wasn't Boogerd?

    I think this is the reason indeed

    Then Armstrong is silly and unprofessional. He should try to win and


    not

    Quoted message said:

    hold grudge for something that happened years ago, especially since


    Boogerd

    Quoted message said:

    never did anything wrong, he just practised basic team tactics.

    Did you see Boogerd trying to win? If he had been he would have followed Vinokourov.

  8. "Kurgan Gringioni" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    Personal relations are as much a part of professional bike racing as


    they

    Quoted message said:

    are in any other profession.

    Is that why YOU have all those wins and that team who keeps asking you back? :-)

  9. "WooGoogle" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    I didn't mean to imply he would let anybody else but Boogerd (that's possible) win but that he
    didn't want to lose to Boogerd the same


    way

    Quoted message said:

    thrice, so he would make Boogerd do a fair share of the chasing, if they were going to chase.

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that you don't have cagey thoughts, just
    nice simple one's like, "that [censored] isn't going to do me a third time."

  10. "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Then Armstrong is silly and unprofessional. He should try to win and


    not

    Quoted message said:

    hold grudge for something that happened years ago, especially since


    Boogerd

    Quoted message said:

    never did anything wrong, he just practised basic team tactics.

    Did you see Boogerd trying to win? If he had been he would have followed Vinokourov.

    Boogerd did go after Vinokourov (didn't you see the race?). The problem was that Boogerd was alone,
    Vinokourov benefited from being part of the strongest team for the day, Telekom.

  11. "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that you don't have cagey thoughts,
    just nice simple one's like, "that [censored] isn't going to do me a third time."

    Come on, give Armstrong a little credit. He just chased the strongest riders, he followed every move
    from Boogerd and Kessler. It's just that simple.

  12. "Oscar Mannheim" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Then Armstrong is silly and unprofessional. He should try to win


    and

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    not

    Quoted message said:

    hold grudge for something that happened years ago, especially


    since

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Boogerd

    Quoted message said:

    never did anything wrong, he just practised basic team tactics.

    Did you see Boogerd trying to win? If he had been he would have followed Vinokourov.

    Boogerd did go after Vinokourov (didn't you see the race?). The


    problem was

    Quoted message said:

    that Boogerd was alone, Vinokourov benefited from being part of the strongest team for the day,
    Telekom.

    Too little and too late. Boogerd figured on dropping everyone and that's why he went so late and so
    hard. But not hard enough by two seconds. He got what he deserved.

  13. "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    The L'Equipe reporter had also interviewed Armstrong:

    Q: We had the feeling that at the end, you were one of the strongest but also one of the most
    marked. Could you have done anything?

    A: Lots of guys were marked. The endgame was very tactical. Everyone was watching for the
    favorites to jump. It's the nature of the game even if, in the final analysis, it was negative
    racing. And when Vinokourov had 200 meters, I knew that it was over especially since Kessler
    was there. Telekom is very strong on paper, but it also proved itself on the ground. In the
    end, I didn't even try to sprint. It doesn't really interest me to finish second again at this
    race.

    Yeah nevermind finishing 2nd and picking up a few extra bucks for your teammates. 8th is so
    much better

    Dave

  14. "Oscar Mannheim" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that


    you

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    don't have cagey thoughts, just nice simple one's like, "that


    [censored]

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    isn't going to do me a third time."

    Come on, give Armstrong a little credit. He just chased the


    strongest

    Quoted message said:

    riders, he followed every move from Boogerd and Kessler. It's just


    that

    Quoted message said:

    simple.

    That's true and he wasn't about to tow them up to Vinokourov. Lance said that when he saw Vinokourov
    go he knew that there was the win dancing away. Why should he tow two strong guys up there just to
    be put down? That was the smart move for him.

  15. Oscar Mannheim said:


    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that you don't have cagey thoughts,
    just nice simple one's like, "that [censored] isn't going to do me a third time."


    Boogerd beat Armstrong _once_ in Amstel Gold - the other time Dekker beat Armstrong, even though
    Dekker did most of the work.

    Quoted message said:

    Come on, give Armstrong a little credit. He just chased the strongest riders, he followed every
    move from Boogerd and Kessler. It's just that simple.

    Armstrong rode a very passive race for certain. I don't know what he was hoping for as he knew that
    Boogerd could beat him in an uphill sprint. Armstrong was following and chasing but he never
    attacked. Perhaps the fact that A-G came a week earlier means that Armstrong was not in top form.
    Let's see what he does in L-B-L.

    steve

  16. Steve Blankenship said:


    Yup, a momentary lapse for both LA and Boogerd; but it also speaks to the caginess of Vinokourov's
    move, knowing they would be marking each other heavily. Which makes sense, knowing the LA/Rabo
    history at Amstel. Vinokourov also said he had to do it since he wouldn't have had a chance if
    he'd gotten to the Cauberg in the same bunch with those guys. The right move at the right time -
    gotta love it. Bit of Zoetemelk in there, don't you think?


    Telekom had 2 guys in the front group, Vino and Kessler. Vino told Kessler he didn't have the legs
    for a sprint, so Kessler said he would handle the sprint. Vino took off with 5 kms to go to soften
    up Boogerd and make it easier for Kessler. Until the base of the climb I think he was expecting to
    get caught. Once he hit the climb he probably thought, "What the hell, this race might be mine if I
    give it everything".

  17. Oscar Mannheim said:

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that you don't have cagey thoughts,
    just nice simple one's like, "that [censored] isn't going to do me a third time."

    Come on, give Armstrong a little credit. He just chased the strongest riders, he followed every
    move from Boogerd and Kessler. It's just that simple.

    But he didn't chase the strongest rider. If the Lance tifosi think it was a tactical error and he
    was was simply playing to screw over BoogerD, he should have at least placed second.

  18. LA & Boogerd both know they made an error in letting Vinokourov get too much room at the wrong time.
    Boogerd just chose to sprint for second when he knew it was over, while Armstrong didn't bother. He
    said himself it was all or nothing.

    But that's bike racing. It happens. And it doesn't diminish Vinokourov's win at all; he made the
    perfect move given the circumstances and it paid off. That's why I love one-day races; no matter
    who's the strongest, you just never know.

    "Kyle Legate" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Oscar Mannheim said:

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I'm convinced you're correct. In the heat of a moment like that you don't have cagey thoughts,
    just nice simple one's like, "that [censored] isn't going to do me a third time."

    Come on, give Armstrong a little credit. He just chased the strongest riders, he followed every
    move from Boogerd and Kessler. It's just that simple.

    But he didn't chase the strongest rider. If the Lance tifosi think it was


    a

    Quoted message said:

    tactical error and he was was simply playing to screw over BoogerD, he should have at least
    placed second.

  19. steve robertson said:

    Boogerd beat Armstrong _once_ in Amstel Gold - the other time Dekker beat Armstrong, even though
    Dekker did most of the work.

    Well, a lot of work for sure. I was going to write how he bridged a 1 minute gap to LA and (?) but
    then I decided to look it up: cyclingnews.comresults.shtml

    Quoted message said:

    Perhaps the fact that A-G came a week earlier means that Armstrong was not in top form. Let's see
    what he does in L-B-L.

    That's certainly what he himself said in a pre-race interview.

  20. Oscar Mannheim said:

    "Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> skrev i meddelandet

    Quoted message said:

    Did you see Boogerd trying to win? If he had been he would have followed Vinokourov.

    Quoted message said:

    Boogerd did go after Vinokourov (didn't you see the race?). The problem was that Boogerd was
    alone, Vinokourov benefited from being part of the strongest team for the day, Telekom.

    No he didn't see the race (nor did I). Don't forget that on the west side of the pond, there is not
    live coverage of most races (excepting grand tours on OLN cable, which started only a few years ago;
    they'll show an hour of Amstel on Thursday.) But hey, that never stops Koach K.

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