another first time marathon question

<[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Try doing a 10k after you've trained for a couple of months and plug
that into one of the calculators out on the web. They're supposed to
give a fairly good estimate of your marathon time. Only thing is over
time your times should improve therefore the calculators will create
faster predictions as you continue training. That is if you are a new
runner. Thats the way it's been working for me. My 5k time said I'd do
the marathon in 4 hrs but a couple of months later I did a 10k and the
calculator predicted a 3:37 marathon. I assume its because the training
is causing my speed to increase significantly.

Nice suggestion and an intermediate goal to work toward. Thanks for the
tip.

<[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Try doing a 10k after you've trained for a couple of months and plug
that into one of the calculators out on the web. They're supposed to
give a fairly good estimate of your marathon time. Only thing is over
time your times should improve therefore the calculators will create
faster predictions as you continue training. That is if you are a new
runner. Thats the way it's been working for me. My 5k time said I'd do
the marathon in 4 hrs but a couple of months later I did a 10k and the
calculator predicted a 3:37 marathon. I assume its because the
training
is causing my speed to increase significantly.

Using those tables to go from the 5 or 10k to the marathon are a crock
of manure. Even the 1/2 marathon to the full is smoke job. A Ojai board
or tarot cards are just as well.

-DF

Quoted message said:

Try doing a 10k after you've trained for a couple of months and plug
that into one of the calculators out on the web. They're supposed to
give a fairly good estimate of your marathon time.

They're a good estimate given a certain set of assumptions. Unless you
understand what these assumptions are, and know how to determine whether
or not they apply to you, you're probably better off without the calculator.

For example, most of them don't make any adjustments for heat (has a greater
effect in long races), or course difficulty. Most of them assume that you have
the same performance curve as an elite athlete, with rescaling of course
(probably true across the 5k-20k range, but dangerous assumption for a
marathon)

Quoted message said:

Only thing is over time your times should improve therefore the calculators
will create faster predictions as you continue training.

Yes, what you're doing is using the marathon calculator as a "performance
grader" by converting everything to a common distance. Much like using WAVA
or Gardner-Purdy or Jack Daniels VDOT performance scores to compare times
across different distances.

And that's all fine and good for comparing 5k to 5 mile to 10k to 7 mile to
4 mile times. Times for distances in the 5k-half marathon range tend to predict
each other quite reliably. For example, if you can run a a sub 41 10k, I would
say with some confidence that you can go sub 20 in the 5k. But where you will
start running into trouble is where you start to assume that because you can
run an 18:30 5k, you can run a sub 3 marathon (for example). Marathon times
aren't very predictable, especially when you're not doing much milage (most
people who run marathons are not doing much milage)

For your first marathon, your best bet is to just run a little faster than
you'd do a long training run.

Quoted message said:

runner. Thats the way it's been working for me. My 5k time said I'd do
the marathon in 4 hrs but a couple of months later I did a 10k and the
calculator predicted a 3:37 marathon. I assume its because the training
is causing my speed to increase significantly.

That's great, but if I were you, I'd make sub 4 my starting goal.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/

"Doug Freese" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Using those tables to go from the 5 or 10k to the marathon are a crock
of manure. Even the 1/2 marathon to the full is smoke job. A Ojai board
or tarot cards are just as well.

Douglas, you're increasingly negative and downbeat nature of late is
beginning to concern me. Is Wobbot worrying you? Had duelling with Donny
damaged your self esteem? Are you less-than-optimistic about Ozzies
return? (I am. He's given up here and amuses himself on other forums)

C'mon, let '05 see a return of the Douglas of old. Combative. Ever-ready
with a quip. Dishing out ultra advice with a ladle. I miss him. He was
fun.

Roger.

"Doug Freese" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Using those tables to go from the 5 or 10k to the marathon are a crock of
manure. Even the 1/2 marathon to the full is smoke job. A Ojai board or
tarot cards are just as well.

I know if I used one of those tables, using my *worst* 5k-10mi results, I'd
get a "you will take *at least* [censored] time to do a marathon" answer -- and it
wouldn't be wrong, either.
Best wishes to all for speedy 2005.
bj