2004 tdf picks

JTN said:

so where is the list?

There was a bit of a flurry about a week ago, instigated by Dan Connelly. You aren't alone in
dissin' Lance.

Quoted message said:

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

On my list, Lance would still be the most-likely to win, but no way would I say it's a lock, and if
I had to put a percentage on it, it would be under 50%.

Think Vino. That guy's had a steady rise over the past several years, and can cook up a lot of steam
in short order when required. I see Vino as a much more dangerous threat to Lance than Ulrich,
primarily because Ulrich isn't likely to do something really surprising. Vino, on the other hand,
could have a spectacular day and blow things wide open. And then do it again the next day.

Lance's worst nightmare, in my book, would be if something happened to Ulrich such that T-Mobile
mobilized behind Vino.

I would love to see Lance win #6, but it's going to be an awesome race no matter who wins.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles chainreactionbicycles.comchainreactionbicycles.comOpen ↗

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

On my list, Lance would still be the most-likely to win, but no way would I say it's a lock, and
if I had to put a percentage on it, it would be under 50%.

Think Vino. That guy's had a steady rise over the past several years, and can cook up a lot of
steam in short order when required. I see Vino as a much more dangerous threat to Lance than
Ulrich, primarily because Ulrich isn't likely to do something really surprising.

<snip>

Dumbass -

Vino can't TT like Ullrich - not even close.

"JTN" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

so where is the list?

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

Hmmm ... Guess ALL his girl friends HAS hurt him;-)

s boardnbike.comboardnbike.comOpen ↗

For a guy who's been around cycling for a long time you don't know a hell of a lot.

Lance is done. I've heard through the grapevine that even NOW he's complaining of knee and hip pain.
He won't be training in Europe, he's got a family in crisis and even with the Azevedo pick up, his
team is not as strong as it was two years ago.

I would love to see Lance do it again, but the reality is -- Telekom has a much stronger team, they
will kick USPS on the TT. Once the show starts, Ullrich has Vino working for him, he can send him
out to punish LA then be there to pick over the corpse.

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

On my list, Lance would still be the most-likely to win, but no way would

I

Quoted message said:

say it's a lock, and if I had to put a percentage on it, it would be under 50%.

Think Vino. That guy's had a steady rise over the past several years, and can cook up a lot of
steam in short order when required. I see Vino as a much more dangerous threat to Lance than
Ulrich, primarily because Ulrich isn't likely to do something really surprising. Vino, on the
other hand, could have a spectacular day and blow things wide open. And then do it again the
next day.

Lance's worst nightmare, in my book, would be if something happened to Ulrich such that T-Mobile
mobilized behind Vino.

I would love to see Lance win #6, but it's going to be an awesome race no matter who wins.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles chainreactionbicycles.comchainreactionbicycles.comOpen ↗

---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (grisoft.comgrisoft.comOpen ↗).
Version: 6.0.560 / Virus Database: 352 - Release Date: 1/8/2004

"JTN" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

so where is the list?

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

I'd like to see Beloki on last years form again. We'll never know how far he might have gone, but he
looked good in 2003. Maybe his new team will lose too much in the TTT.

---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (grisoft.comgrisoft.comOpen ↗).
Version: 6.0.560 / Virus Database: 352 - Release Date: 08/01/2004

"JTN" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

so where is the list?

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

Armstrong can't get third, Millar is going to get third.

JayofMontreal said:

Lance is done. I've heard through the grapevine that even NOW he's complaining of knee and hip
pain. He won't be training in Europe, he's got a family in crisis and even with the Azevedo pick
up, his team is not as strong as it was two years ago.

Is this the same grapevine that said that Steels' wife made him give up dope and that's why the
sucks now?

I would be very skeptical of the 'knee and hip pain' thing. Hip problems, other than Beloki's, are
pretty rare in the sport.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Jtn
so where is the list?

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

I'll 2nd Ulrich with Lance off the podium. (Would like to see Tyler back up there though). 😉

Who cares?

Andy Coggan

Tom Paterson said:

Quoted message said:

From: "Kurgan Gringioni"

(snipped salutation):

Quoted message said:

Vino can't TT like Ullrich - not even close.

Not saying that this applies to Vino, but we have seen at least one TdF winner who was a no-hope
TT'er improve said TT'ing. The condition was posed that Ullrich is out of the picture, remember?
--Tom Paterson

Elephantino was on EPO when he placed third in the final TT.

I'll bet even less than 50% for LA .......... probably closer to 30% or so .......

He's going to have a hell of a time. Ullrich is younger, and looks to be fit and lean already ....... as long as he doesn't burn out, or hurt himself before the tdf, he should have it in the bag with Vino as his Lt.

As someone already said, send Vino out to punish LA, and then Ullrich can toy with him all he wants.

Going to be a very dramatic tour ...........

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Daremo
I'll bet even less than 50% for LA .......... probably closer to 30% or so .......

He's going to have a hell of a time. Ullrich is younger, and looks to be fit and lean already ....... as long as he doesn't burn out, or hurt himself before the tdf, he should have it in the bag with Vino as his Lt.

As someone already said, send Vino out to punish LA, and then Ullrich can toy with him all he wants.

Going to be a very dramatic tour ...........

So if Jan sends Vino out and he stays away to take the yellow jersey... does Vino do water bottle duty on the next stage?

Vino and the whole Telekom team absolutely are going to be a huge advantage for Ullrich. Could be though that Armstrong-Ullrich battles open the door for Beloki and other pretenders to the throne.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Kurgan Gringion

Dumbass -

Vino can't TT like Ullrich - not even close. [/B]

Does that go for TT's up AdH too?

As Heras showed in the Vuelta, a pure climber can make up quite a bit of time on a hill TT.

But Armstrong is certainly no slouch going up hill, especially AdH ........ he's only ridden it in the Tour like 7 or 8 times ...........

But an opportunist who is in the hunt may be able to take some decent time out of LA on that stage ......

[email hidden] (jim gravity) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"JTN" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

so where is the list?

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

Armstrong can't get third, Millar is going to get third.

I really want to see what Fassa puts together this year. I hope they will include Danielson on the
TDF team. That guy is an unbelievable climber and should be relatively new enough to get a stage win
or two before he becomes a marked man.

Phillip

Phillip said:

I really want to see what Fassa puts together this year. I hope they will include Danielson on the
TDF team.

No chance, as he's doing his first grand tour at the Giro.

Dan

I agree. If Beloki heals well then I would pick him to win

John Bickmore www.BicycleCam.com www.Feed-Zone.com

"DiabloScott" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Daremo said:

I'll bet even less than 50% for LA .......... probably closer to 30%

or

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

so ....... He's going to have a hell of a time. Ullrich is younger, and looks to be fit and
lean already ....... as long as he doesn't burn out, or hurt himself before the tdf, he should
have it in the bag with Vino as his Lt. As someone already said, send Vino out to punish LA,
and then Ullrich can toy with him all he wants. Going to be a very dramatic tour ...........

So if Jan sends Vino out and he stays away to take the yellow jersey... does Vino do water bottle
duty on the next stage?

Vino and the whole Telekom team absolutely are going to be a huge advantage for Ullrich. Could be
though that Armstrong-Ullrich battles open the door for Beloki and other pretenders to the throne.

--

xzzy said:

I agree. If Beloki heals well then I would pick him to win

Beloki sold out his chances when he signed with BLB. It doesn't show up well on the highlight
video but LANCE had a big advantage over Ullrich this year in having much more of a say in how the
early parts of critical stages were run. In '04 Beloki will be in the boat Ullrich was in in '03,
hoping for the best in the TTT and reacting to rather than initiating strategic moves at many
other key points.

As JT put it, it was all about the Benjamins.

I am not knocking him for it. USP has used the oversupply of poorly paid Spanish speaking climbers
to great tactical avdantage so I am not going to slam Beloki for deciding to get what he can while
he is able to. But he is going into this year's Tour in a position similar to that of Lemond in '89
with ADR. He had a much better shot the past several years with ONCE.

He turned 30 last month. I don't think it is reasonable to expect a large degree of physical
improvement over the guy that has never come within 7 minutes of LANCE, which is what you'd need if
you were giving up a lot of team support.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]