2004 tdf picks

Bob Schwartz <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

xzzy said:

I agree. If Beloki heals well then I would pick him to win

Beloki sold out his chances when he signed with BLB. It doesn't show up well on the highlight
video but LANCE had a big advantage over Ullrich this year in having much more of a say in how the
early parts of critical stages were run. In '04 Beloki will be in the boat Ullrich was in in '03,
hoping for the best in the TTT and reacting to rather than initiating strategic moves at many
other key points.

As JT put it, it was all about the Benjamins.

I am not knocking him for it. USP has used the oversupply of poorly paid Spanish speaking climbers
to great tactical avdantage so I am not going to slam Beloki for deciding to get what he can while
he is able to. But he is going into this year's Tour in a position similar to that of Lemond in
'89 with ADR. He had a much better shot the past several years with ONCE.

He turned 30 last month. I don't think it is reasonable to expect a large degree of physical
improvement over the guy that has never come within 7 minutes of LANCE, which is what you'd need
if you were giving up a lot of team support.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

Still...

The one major problem all of those other teams have is that they all have more than one person who
conceivably be the team leader (except Beloki, but his team is weak at best). Postal only has one
leader for the Tour, and we all know that's Lance. Whatever he says, goes. Everyone knows that
coming in, a and everyone accepts what their job is on the team, and they are well paid for it. It's
definitely not chance that they've won the last 5 in a row. Telekom, oops, excuse me, T-Mobile is an
entire team of potential leaders (Vino, Evans, Botero, and others), and don't think that Zabel
doesn't want the green jersey again after a couple of years of not having it. I'm sure he's dying to
have that thing again, and that would change the whole perspective. Postal's only perspective is to
get Lance in yellow, and for him to win. I don't think any other team approaches the Tour like that
(at least at this point in time). Look for Lance to take
#6, even though I'd rather see Jan take it.

Tom

"JTN" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

so where is the list?

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

Well, this pick may be pretty far-fetched, but Ivan Basso...

CSC have the goods with a host of strongmen for the TTT. Sastre, Jaksche and even Peron are
more than capable of delivering Basso into position for the final selection on the mountains,
and his (admittedly kind of boring) tactics of following in the wheels of the superteams should
serve him well.

Ivan has been improving all the time, and similar improvment, coupled with the foretold drop-off of
Lance's ability (I'll believe THAT when I see it), too much pluralism in Telekom, and Beloki never
quite actually being able to win anything, and the scene looks bright.

I'm stupid? Maybe.. but it's no fun to pick the obvious. And remember you heard it here first...

George

------------
George Chapman [email hidden]

"JayofMontreal" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

For a guy who's been around cycling for a long time you don't know a hell

of

Quoted message said:

a lot.

Lance is done. I've heard through the grapevine that even NOW he's complaining of knee and hip
pain. He won't be training in Europe, he's

got

Quoted message said:

a family in crisis and even with the Azevedo pick up, his team is not as strong as it was two
years ago.

If Lance were to screw up I'm think that Azevedo has at least as much chance of hitting the podium
as Vino. Azevedo has shown himself to be dynamite more than once. Doesn't he have a fifth in the
Giro without support?

Tom Kunich said:

If Lance were to screw up I'm think that Azevedo has at least as much chance of hitting the podium
as Vino. Azevedo has shown himself to be dynamite more than once. Doesn't he have a fifth in the
Giro without support?

Vino has a third in the Tour and a win in Paris Nice. He's the stronger candidate.

Tom's assertion brings up an interesting question. If Ullrich and Lance crash into each other
warming up for the prologue, taking each other out of the race, T-Mobile supports Vino, and Postal
supports...? Or due they just scatter, confused and despirited, like the hosts of Mordor after the
destruction of the ring? 🙂

Obvious candidates are Beltran, Azevedo, and Rubiera. I'd take Beltran.

Dan

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Dan Connelly

BTom Kunich said:

If Lance were to screw up I'm think that Azevedo has at least as much chance of hitting the podium
as Vino. Azevedo has shown himself to be dynamite more than once. Doesn't he have a fifth in the
Giro without support?

Vino has a third in the Tour and a win in Paris Nice. He's the stronger candidate.

Tom's assertion brings up an interesting question. If Ullrich and Lance crash into each other
warming up for the prologue, taking each other out of the race, T-Mobile supports Vino, and Postal
supports...? Or due they just scatter, confused and despirited, like the hosts of Mordor after the
destruction of the ring? 🙂

Obvious candidates are Beltran, Azevedo, and Rubiera. I'd take Beltran.

Dan [/B]

Yeah, I'd say Beltran too.
Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot as not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Here's a reminder.

1 ARMSTRONG
2 ULLRICH
3 VINOKOUROV
4 HAMILTON
5 ZUBELDIA
6 MAYO
7 BASSO
8 MOREAU
9 SASTRE
10 MANCEBO

I'm going to have to think about this one.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Dan Connelly

BTom Kunich said:

If Lance were to screw up I'm think that Azevedo has at least as much chance of hitting the podium
as Vino. Azevedo has shown himself to be dynamite more than once. Doesn't he have a fifth in the
Giro without support?

Vino has a third in the Tour and a win in Paris Nice. He's the stronger candidate.

Tom's assertion brings up an interesting question. If Ullrich and Lance crash into each other
warming up for the prologue, taking each other out of the race, T-Mobile supports Vino, and Postal
supports...? Or due they just scatter, confused and despirited, like the hosts of Mordor after the
destruction of the ring? 🙂

Obvious candidates are Beltran, Azevedo, and Rubiera. I'd take Beltran.

Dan [/B]

Yeah, I'd say Beltran too.
Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot as not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Here's a reminder.

1 ARMSTRONG
2 ULLRICH
3 VINOKOUROV
4 HAMILTON
5 ZUBELDIA
6 MAYO
7 BASSO
8 MOREAU
9 SASTRE
10 MANCEBO

I'm going to have to think about this one.

Quoted message said:

Dumbass -

Vino can't TT like Ullrich - not even close.

Thanks for the compliment. I did mention that Ullrich would already be out of the game for this
scenario to play out.

Regarding time trials, Vino was 2.06 off the pace (good enough for 3rd place) in the Stage 12 TT,
and 1.56 off for the final. In a fractured race, could Vino gain four minutes on his rivals in the
mountains? I'm thinkin' YES!

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles chainreactionbicycles.comchainreactionbicycles.comOpen ↗

Tom Arsenault said:

Telekom, oops, excuse me, T-Mobile is an entire team of potential leaders (Vino, Evans, Botero,
and others), and don't think that Zabel doesn't want the green jersey again after a couple of
years of not having it. I'm sure he's dying to have that thing again, and that would change the
whole perspective. Postal's only perspective is to get Lance in yellow, and for him to win. I
don't think any other team approaches the Tour like that (at least at this point in time). Look
for Lance to take
#6, even though I'd rather see Jan take it.

Team T has no history of internal conflict. Not even when Riis and Ullrich rode together. They have
had many opportunities to break ranks and it hasn't happened. It seems to be a trait that they have
selected in the teams that they've built.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

DiabloScott <[email hidden]> schreef in berichtnieuws
[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Dan Connelly said:

Tom Kunich said:

If Lance were to screw up I'm think that Azevedo has at least as

much

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

chance of hitting the podium as Vino. Azevedo has shown himself to

be

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

dynamite more than once. Doesn't he have a fifth in the Giro without support?

Vino has a third in the Tour and a win in Paris Nice. He's the

stronger

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

candidate. Tom's assertion brings up an interesting question. If Ullrich and

Lance

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

crash into each other warming up for the prologue, taking each other

out

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

of the race, T-Mobile supports Vino, and Postal supports...? Or due

they

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

just scatter, confused and despirited, like the hosts of Mordor after the destruction of the
ring? 🙂 Obvious candidates are Beltran, Azevedo, and Rubiera. I'd take

Beltran.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Dan

Yeah, I'd say Beltran too. Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-
shot? Define long-shot as not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Perhaps you should add: 'and not Heras', who I think is a likely top 10 candidate. More likely than
at least four or five of the names below. Valverde would be my favorite outsider, but apparently
he's not even participating.

Quoted message said:

Here's a reminder.

1 ARMSTRONG 2 ULLRICH 3 VINOKOUROV 4 HAMILTON 5 ZUBELDIA 6 MAYO 7 BASSO 8 MOREAU 9 SASTRE
10 MANCEBO

I'm going to have to think about this one.

--

DiabloScott <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot as
not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Here's a reminder.

1 ARMSTRONG 2 ULLRICH 3 VINOKOUROV 4 HAMILTON 5 ZUBELDIA 6 MAYO 7 BASSO 8 MOREAU 9 SASTRE
10 MANCEBO

I'm going to have to think about this one.

Millar

"jim gravity" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

DiabloScott <[email hidden]> wrote in message

news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot
as not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Here's a reminder.

1 ARMSTRONG 2 ULLRICH 3 VINOKOUROV 4 HAMILTON 5 ZUBELDIA 6 MAYO 7 BASSO 8 MOREAU 9 SASTRE 10
MANCEBO

I'm going to have to think about this one.

Millar

Except for the fact that Millar has tried to stake his claim for the Olympics, and probably won't be
racing for GC results in the TdF, I might agree with you.

Andy Coggan

On 1/16/04 9:22 AM, in article
[email hidden], "jim gravity"

Quoted message said:

DiabloScott <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot as
not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Here's a reminder.

1 ARMSTRONG 2 ULLRICH 3 VINOKOUROV 4 HAMILTON 5 ZUBELDIA 6 MAYO 7 BASSO 8 MOREAU 9 SASTRE 10
MANCEBO

I'm going to have to think about this one.

Millar

Henry's parrot.........

DiabloScott <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Yeah, I'd say Beltran too. Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-
shot? Define long-shot as not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

David Michael Anthony

DiabloScott said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot
as not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Steve said:

Henry's parrot.........

Well if pets are allowed, I'd say VDB's dog would be a good bet if it has not suffered from a heart
attack yet.

"Donald Munro" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

DiabloScott said:

Quoted message said:

> Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot
> as not in the 2003

top

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> 10, and not Beloki.
>

Steve said:

Henry's parrot.........

Well if pets are allowed, I'd say VDB's dog would be a good bet if it has not suffered from a
heart attack yet.

If in France the summer of '04 is anything like the summer of '03, I'd bet against the dog: no
sweat glands.

Andy Coggan

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Jtn
so where is the list?

Ulrich is my choice, with Armstrong finishing a distant third.....

If any of you experts can accurately tell what the score of the super bowl will be and who will win I will take your predictions of the TDF next summer seriously. Super Bowl is only two weeks away. Should be an easy prediction in comparison.

Steve said:

On 1/16/04 9:22 AM, in article [email hidden], "jim gravity" <jim_gravity@my-

deja.com said:

DiabloScott <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Here's a more fun question though: Who will be the highest placed long-shot? Define long-shot as
not in the 2003 top 10, and not Beloki.

Here's a reminder.

1 ARMSTRONG 2 ULLRICH 3 VINOKOUROV 4 HAMILTON 5 ZUBELDIA 6 MAYO 7 BASSO 8 MOREAU 9 SASTRE 10
MANCEBO

I'm going to have to think about this one.

Millar

Henry's parrot.........

Miller's going to target the flat time trials (prologue + the other one).

Since I already posted my top 10, this one's easy. Just remove the above riders:

6. Heras: free at last, free at last, ....
7. Simoni: if you can win the Giro, you should at least be able to come in eighth in the Tour
8. Leipheimer: riding as team second this year, like '01 Vuelta.

My pick is Heras.

Dan

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by jhuskey
If any of you experts can accurately tell what the score of the super bowl will be and who will win I will take your predictions of the TDF next summer seriously. Super Bowl is only two weeks away. Should be an easy prediction in comparison.

New England 31
Philly 24

:p

Predicting the SuperBowl is a lot harder than predicting the Tour. There are only so many people that can legitimately win the Tour ...... And with all the rumors/reports of Armstrong with his family difficulties, his strange training schedule, and Sheryl Crowe issues, he is NOT the odds on favorite this year. He has even said that his kids are the most important thing (and as a father of two boys, I wholeheartedly agree with that!).

The guy has more money than anyone would really need, so if he throws away this tour because he needs to take care of his family, I applaud him for that.

But Ullrich is still going to kick his azz if he does show up on the starting line ........

I know Millar's style is to lay claim to a race long in advance, then to do everything to try to win it, but I think there's a good chance he'll find himself in a good place and we'll see him racing.

I'm still "betting" he'll get third overall though.

Daremo said:

New England 31 Philly 24

Well, now I know who's playing, anyway.

Seriously, indicating any knowledge about football (US or international) here is poor form. Even
today, I couldn't predict the winner of LAST year's SuperBowl. I like it that way.

Dan