Indurain redux?

"Scott" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

It seems from Basso's recent comments re: losing time in the TT's to
Ullrich that he may not be able to make up in the mountains, that we
may be seeing a return to the Indurain model: crush 'em in the TTs and
stay close in the mountains.

I'm hoping that while Basso tries everything to shake Ullrich he sets
up Floyd for the win. After reading the current Outside magazine
article on Floyd I find myself pulling for him to win even more.

That's undoubtedly Jan's best chance plan.

Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.

Quoted message said:

Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.

I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
are out of the race. But not likely.

in message <[email hidden]>, Scott

(') said:

It seems from Basso's recent comments re: losing time in the TT's to
Ullrich that he may not be able to make up in the mountains, that we
may be seeing a return to the Indurain model: crush 'em in the TTs and
stay close in the mountains.

H'mmm... I'm skeptical. At this level, a good TT performance can be worth
a couple of minutes at best, but a good mountain break is at least twice
that; and there are more mountain stages than time trials. 'Stay close
in the mountains' is fine if you can, but once you're off the back you
are losing time fast. The only person who consistently stayed with Basso
in the mountains in the Giro was Piepoli, and, as others have pointed
out, he's not starting the Tour.

Ullrich will take a minute at most out of Basso in each individual time
trial - stage 7 and stage 19. Basso will take more out of Ullrich on
each of stage 11 (Val d'Aran) stage 15 (Alpe d'Huez), stage 16 (la
Toussuire). Therefore Basso will have the yellow jersey in Paris.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

to err is human, to lisp divine
;; attributed to Kim Philby, oddly enough.

T Ruth said:

Quoted message said:

Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.

I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
are out of the race. But not likely.

Oh.
I had my top 3 for the Tour as Ullrich, Basso, Landis.

T Ruth said:

Quoted message said:

Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.

I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
are out of the race. But not likely.

I'm going to bookmark these posts.

Simon Brooke said:

in message <[email hidden]>, Scott

(') said:

It seems from Basso's recent comments re: losing time in the TT's to
Ullrich that he may not be able to make up in the mountains, that we
may be seeing a return to the Indurain model: crush 'em in the TTs and
stay close in the mountains.

H'mmm... I'm skeptical. At this level, a good TT performance can be worth
a couple of minutes at best, but a good mountain break is at least twice
that; and there are more mountain stages than time trials. 'Stay close
in the mountains' is fine if you can, but once you're off the back you
are losing time fast. The only person who consistently stayed with Basso
in the mountains in the Giro was Piepoli, and, as others have pointed
out, he's not starting the Tour.

Ullrich will take a minute at most out of Basso in each individual time
trial - stage 7 and stage 19. Basso will take more out of Ullrich on
each of stage 11 (Val d'Aran) stage 15 (Alpe d'Huez), stage 16 (la
Toussuire). Therefore Basso will have the yellow jersey in Paris.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

As for the folks who say Floyd can't TT with Ullrich or climb with
Basso, I think we'll see in a few weeks that you're wrong on both
counts.

Quoted message said:

Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.

In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
swinging in '98.

Quoted message said:

As for the folks who say Floyd can't TT with Ullrich or climb with
Basso, I think we'll see in a few weeks that you're wrong on both
counts.

If nothing else, it should be an interesting TdF...which is more than
you can say about the last few years editions.

gym.gravity said:

T Ruth said:

Quoted message said:

Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.

I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
are out of the race. But not likely.

I'm going to bookmark these posts.

The logic was flawed. He doesn't need to out time trial Ullrich, just gain more
time on climbs than Ullrich gains in time trials, and gain more time in time trials
than Basso gains in mountains.

But it won't happen. He might get second, but Basso is a rock solid lock for
first.

Dan

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.

In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
swinging in '98.

While I can't/won't say whether Ullrich is/was clean, we know pretty
certainly that Pantani wasn't. His ability to put Ullrich under such
pressure as to lead to his cracking on that day could very well have
been artificially inspired.

Regardless, we're not talking about the Ullrich of '98, we're talking
about the more recent Ullrich who's shown much more maturity and
tenacity in the mountains. Having said that, anyone can crack (yes,
even Basso) so on a given day who knows how things will turn out.

Barring unforseen circumstances, I don't see Basso putting so much
pressure on Ullrich that he rides himself into blowing up. A more
likely scenario is that Ullrich diesels along as always, limiting his
losses. Who knows, with the team of climbers he's bringing with him,
he may put Basso into trouble.

Either way, I'm still rooting for Floyd!

Simon Brooke said:

in message <[email hidden]>, Scott
([email hidden]'😉 wrote:

Quoted message said:

Ullrich will take a minute at most out of Basso in each individual time
trial - stage 7 and stage 19. Basso will take more out of Ullrich on
each of stage 11 (Val d'Aran) stage 15 (Alpe d'Huez), stage 16 (la
Toussuire). Therefore Basso will have the yellow jersey in Paris.

Stage 11's finish is 13km at a lowly 5.5% - I don't think that's going
to be steep enough for Basso to get much of an advantage.
Stage 15, might not be as decisive either if things go like 2003
Alpe d'Huez match ups:
2003: Basso 1:24 faster than Ullrich
2004: (ITT) Ullrich 1:22 faster than Basso

Stage 16 will be hard for Ullrich, but the finishing climb is 18.4 @6%
- not as steep as Plateau de Beille in 2004 where Ullrich lost 2:42,
and similar to Courchevel where Ulle held Basso to 1:12 in 2005.

I'm betting on Ullrich using the two long TT's to put time into the
rest, and holding his own in the mountains, limiting his losses to less
than a minute on these 3 stages and taking the yellow into Paris. I'm
betting on Basso having one catastrophic TT where he loses 2+ minutes
(but not as bad as the 6' he lost in '03).

Finally, bumbles bounce. This year the first real mountains don't come
until stage 10. Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash. The man went
through the back window of a car and finished on the podium of the
tour. Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.

Scott said:

While I can't/won't say whether Ullrich is/was clean, we know pretty
certainly that Pantani wasn't. His ability to put Ullrich under such
pressure as to lead to his cracking on that day could very well have
been artificially inspired.

Yeah Pantani probably was on the juice but Ullrich still cracked open
like a watermelon dropped off an 8-story building. All he had to do
was "ride within himself" and limit the damage but he couldn't do it.

That episode probably doesn't mean much for the 2006 Tour other than
one bad day in the mountains can cost you lots of time and maybe the
race. A bad TT, OTOH, is less likely to cost you as much. (See LA's
supposed "worst day ever on the bike"-- the TT in 2003 where Jan smoked
him. He got killed but "only" by 90 seconds. That was hardly the 9 or
10 minutes he lost to Pantani on the Galibier in '98).

Quoted message said:

Regardless, we're not talking about the Ullrich of '98, we're talking
about the more recent Ullrich who's shown much more maturity and
tenacity in the mountains. Having said that, anyone can crack (yes,
even Basso) so on a given day who knows how things will turn out.

Quoted message said:

Barring unforseen circumstances, I don't see Basso putting so much
pressure on Ullrich that he rides himself into blowing up. A more
likely scenario is that Ullrich diesels along as always, limiting his
losses. Who knows, with the team of climbers he's bringing with him,
he may put Basso into trouble.

Agreed, but Jan is at that point where "maturity" can quickly turn the
into "over-the-hill". The fact is, if Basso (or anyone else) ramps up
the pace in the midst of a climb, Jan will not be able to go with them.
He will have to "diesel along" and hope the the protaganist dies.

Quoted message said:

Either way, I'm still rooting for Floyd!

Floyd is the man!

I like Basso, but I'm a little concerned that he might have burnt his
matches in the Giro. I think there are two possible outcomes for Basso
in the tour - he rides like he did in the Giro and dominates, or he
gets sick and becomes pack fodder. I'm guessing it's the latter.

I also have one more prediction for this year's tour: everyone will be
Time Trialing like Floyd with their bars angled up next year because
Floyd will win one of the TTs this year (thank goodness you don't need
a good team to be a good time trialist).

yeahyeah said:

Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash.

yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
to go look at the stage details though.)

Quoted message said:

Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.

wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.
(http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.racing/msg/1cb1397940777406?hl=en&)

or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.

heather

in message <[email hidden]>,

(') said:

Scott said:

While I can't/won't say whether Ullrich is/was clean, we know pretty
certainly that Pantani wasn't. His ability to put Ullrich under such
pressure as to lead to his cracking on that day could very well have
been artificially inspired.

Yeah Pantani probably was on the juice but Ullrich still cracked open
like a watermelon dropped off an 8-story building. All he had to do
was "ride within himself" and limit the damage but he couldn't do it.

He is /much/ more experienced now. Still, the wheels can still come off
him in the mountains, as we saw with the dreadfully fissile T-Mo of last
year. Here's hoping that T-Mo can at least ride as if they were all on
the same team this year - the biggest improvement to Ullrich's chances
is the departure of Vinokourov.

Quoted message said:

That episode probably doesn't mean much for the 2006 Tour other than
one bad day in the mountains can cost you lots of time and maybe the
race. A bad TT, OTOH, is less likely to cost you as much. (See LA's
supposed "worst day ever on the bike"-- the TT in 2003 where Jan smoked
him. He got killed but "only" by 90 seconds. That was hardly the 9 or
10 minutes he lost to Pantani on the Galibier in '98).

Exactly, that's what I believe. Someone who's a great climber but a so-so
time trialler is always going to beat someone who is a great time
trialler but a so-so climber on general classification, because the time
you tend to lose when things go wrong is so much higher in the
mountains.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Barring unforseen circumstances, I don't see Basso putting so much
pressure on Ullrich that he rides himself into blowing up. A more
likely scenario is that Ullrich diesels along as always, limiting his
losses. Who knows, with the team of climbers he's bringing with him,
he may put Basso into trouble.

Agreed, but Jan is at that point where "maturity" can quickly turn the
into "over-the-hill". The fact is, if Basso (or anyone else) ramps up
the pace in the midst of a climb, Jan will not be able to go with them.
He will have to "diesel along" and hope the the protaganist dies.

Ullrich basically has to ride steadily in the hope of Basso getting ill
or crashing. Both of which are, let's face it, possible.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

The trouble with Simon is that he only opens his mouth to change feet.
;; of me, by a 'friend'

h squared said:

yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
to go look at the stage details though.)

heather

Yea, but Floyd is a descending mofo, a skill he learned as a mountain
biker. Ullrich may sink like a stone, but he doesn't descend like one.
I doubt Basso has the stones to follow Floyd down the more perilous
descents, especially if it's raining.

If the situation presents itself, there's NO way Floyd would pull a
Simoni and agree to take it easy. I imagine he'd more likely flip him
the bird as he pulled away into the next hairpin.

BTW, if you haven't yet, read the article on Floyd in the current issue
of 'Outside'. What a character!

h squared said:

yeahyeah said:

Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man.

wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.
or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.

Or rather, connected?

--
E. Dronkert

h squared said:

yeahyeah said:

Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man.

wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.
or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.

Or rather, connected?

--
E. Dronkert

in 508895 20060621 204800 Dan Connelly d_j_c_o_n_n_e_l@i_e_e_e.o_r_g said:

gym.gravity said:

T Ruth said:

> Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
> the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.
I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
are out of the race. But not likely.

I'm going to bookmark these posts.

The logic was flawed. He doesn't need to out time trial Ullrich, just gain more
time on climbs than Ullrich gains in time trials, and gain more time in time trials
than Basso gains in mountains.

But it won't happen. He might get second, but Basso is a rock solid lock for
first.

Dan

I predict Landis will not be in the top 6.

in 508895 20060621 204800 Dan Connelly d_j_c_o_n_n_e_l@i_e_e_e.o_r_g said:

gym.gravity said:

T Ruth said:

> Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
> the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.
I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
are out of the race. But not likely.

I'm going to bookmark these posts.

The logic was flawed. He doesn't need to out time trial Ullrich, just gain more
time on climbs than Ullrich gains in time trials, and gain more time in time trials
than Basso gains in mountains.

But it won't happen. He might get second, but Basso is a rock solid lock for
first.

Dan

I predict Landis will not be in the top 6.