Indurain redux?

in 508894 20060621 204506 said:

Quoted message said:

Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.

In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
swinging in '98.

It wasn't Pantani that beat Ullrich on the Deux Alpes stage but the weather.
How many riders have the power to arrange a cold wet day then make the
most of it?

in 508894 20060621 204506 said:

Quoted message said:

Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.

In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
swinging in '98.

It wasn't Pantani that beat Ullrich on the Deux Alpes stage but the weather.
How many riders have the power to arrange a cold wet day then make the
most of it?

Bob Martin said:

It wasn't Pantani that beat Ullrich on the Deux Alpes stage but the weather.
How many riders have the power to arrange a cold wet day then make the
most of it?

A puncture at the bottom of the climb wasn't particularly helpful to
Ullrich's cause either. If it had been LANCE presumably all the LANCE
tifosi would have said that Pantani should have waited.

Bob Martin said:

It wasn't Pantani that beat Ullrich on the Deux Alpes stage but the weather.
How many riders have the power to arrange a cold wet day then make the
most of it?

A puncture at the bottom of the climb wasn't particularly helpful to
Ullrich's cause either. If it had been LANCE presumably all the LANCE
tifosi would have said that Pantani should have waited.

h squared said:

yeahyeah said:

Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash.

yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
to go look at the stage details though.)

Quoted message said:

Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.

wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.
(http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.racing/msg/1cb1397940777406?hl=en&)

or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.

heather

Actually, the girly man thing was a reference to that fake Ullrich
Myspace page... I still think Basso is adorable, but he just dominated
too much in the Giro to make it fun. I just want ol' Ulle to finally
get his 2nd TdF win.

On 21 Jun 2006 14:14:48 -0700, "jeremy" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

I like Basso, but I'm a little concerned that he might have burnt his
matches in the Giro. I think there are two possible outcomes for Basso
in the tour - he rides like he did in the Giro and dominates, or he
gets sick and becomes pack fodder. I'm guessing it's the latter.

I also have one more prediction for this year's tour: everyone will be
Time Trialing like Floyd with their bars angled up next year because
Floyd will win one of the TTs this year (thank goodness you don't need
a good team to be a good time trialist).

The first doesn't really qualify as a prediction - its a guess. A
prediction is that Basso did 'burn the matches' and he will finish no
better than sixth - behind Ullrich, behind Landis, behind others.

Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

Bob Martin said:

in 508894 20060621 204506 said:

Quoted message said:

Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.

In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
swinging in '98.

It wasn't Pantani that beat Ullrich on the Deux Alpes stage but the weather.
How many riders have the power to arrange a cold wet day then make the
most of it?

And have precisely the correct dope combination for the day.

Ron

in message <[email hidden]>,

yeahyeah (') said:

h squared said:

yeahyeah said:

Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash.

yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
to go look at the stage details though.)

Quoted message said:

Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.

wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.

(http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.racing/msg/1cb1397940777406?hl=en&)

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.

Actually, the girly man thing was a reference to that fake Ullrich
Myspace page... I still think Basso is adorable, but he just dominated
too much in the Giro to make it fun. I just want ol' Ulle to finally
get his 2nd TdF win.

To be honest, so do I. He's worked so hard for it over so many years and
won't have many more chances. But I don't think he will. Essentially
he's a second Poulidor - a great cyclist who spent his best years in the
shadow of a greater cyclist (much as it pains me to say that). Basso is
taking the role of Merckx - the rising star to take over from
Headstrong's Anquetil. Not that I'm suggesting that Headstrong is fit to
fill Monsieur Chrono's boots, of course.

It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't alter
the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does fail.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

[ This .sig subject to change without notice ]

Scott said:

h squared said:

yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
to go look at the stage details though.)

heather

Yea, but Floyd is a descending mofo, a skill he learned as a mountain
biker. Ullrich may sink like a stone, but he doesn't descend like one.

Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
descender...
I seem to recall a certain muscular German attacking on the descent a
couple years ago (wasn't that the stage where Pants outsprinted
Kloden?).
Floyd is a good descender, but not as fast as Savoldelli. What about
the Falcon? We probably shouldn't discount him in this tour. I doubt
he'll be domestique for George by stage 16.

Quoted message said:

I doubt Basso has the stones to follow Floyd down the more perilous
descents, especially if it's raining.

If the situation presents itself, there's NO way Floyd would pull a
Simoni and agree to take it easy. I imagine he'd more likely flip him
the bird as he pulled away into the next hairpin.

BTW, if you haven't yet, read the article on Floyd in the current issue
of 'Outside'. What a character!

Here's another guess.

1. Ullrich
2. Cadel Evans
3. Floyd
4. Valverde
5. Leipheimer
6. Vino
7. Menchov
8. Vandevelde
9. Karpets
10. Savoldelli

DNF - Basso

Bookmark it!

jeremy

Curtis L. Russell said:

On 21 Jun 2006 14:14:48 -0700, "jeremy" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

I like Basso, but I'm a little concerned that he might have burnt his
matches in the Giro. I think there are two possible outcomes for Basso
in the tour - he rides like he did in the Giro and dominates, or he
gets sick and becomes pack fodder. I'm guessing it's the latter.

I also have one more prediction for this year's tour: everyone will be
Time Trialing like Floyd with their bars angled up next year because
Floyd will win one of the TTs this year (thank goodness you don't need
a good team to be a good time trialist).

The first doesn't really qualify as a prediction - its a guess. A
prediction is that Basso did 'burn the matches' and he will finish no
better than sixth - behind Ullrich, behind Landis, behind others.

Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

yeahyeah said:

Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
descender...

the humor of the incident makes it memorable 🙂

Quoted message said:

I seem to recall a certain muscular German attacking on the descent a
couple years ago (wasn't that the stage where Pants outsprinted
Kloden?).
Floyd is a good descender, but not as fast as Savoldelli. What about
the Falcon? We probably shouldn't discount him in this tour. I doubt
he'll be domestique for George by stage 16.

mmmm, muscular, outsprinted, descender, tour, domestique...good talk.

heather

yeahyeah said:

Quoted message said:

Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
descender...

fred.garvin said:

but you suck one [censored] and you're Joe [censored] till the day
you die.

Thats a bit of a below the belt attack on poor heather.

On 22 Jun 2006 08:14:30 -0700, "jeremy" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Here's another guess.

1. Ullrich
2. Cadel Evans
3. Floyd
4. Valverde
5. Leipheimer
6. Vino
7. Menchov
8. Vandevelde
9. Karpets
10. Savoldelli

DNF - Basso

Bookmark it!

jeremy

I'll buy this as a good guess and even a prediction. Not sure who I'm
putting between Ullrich and Floyd, but think I'm more likely to swap
your number 2 and 4. Nah, don't think I can pick Evans in the top 10.
Maybe top 15, with Beloki (wishful thinking).

So I'll go this far...

1. Ullrich
2. Valverde
3. Landis
4. Hincapie
5. Vino
6. Menchov
7. Basso
8. Leipheimer
9. Kloden
10. Michael Rogers (to have an Aussie in the top ten)

I think that 9 and 10 will happen because protecting the Diesel is
easier than launching LA up the mountain day after day.

Rasmussen to repeat in the mountains, but I'll pass on points leader
this year, partly because I really don't care for once.

Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

jeremy said:

Here's another guess.

1. Ullrich
2. Cadel Evans
3. Floyd
4. Valverde
5. Leipheimer
6. Vino
7. Menchov
8. Vandevelde
9. Karpets
10. Savoldelli

DNF - Basso

Bookmark it!

jeremy

You can take your candyass picks over to
http://www.fantasycyclinggame.com - apparently the prize list will be
up later on today.

It's reminiscent of the old Performance Bike game in concept: very
simple pick a team and go with it. None of this swapping riders
mid-Tour, etc.

Donald Munro said:

yeahyeah said:

Quoted message said:

Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
descender...

fred.garvin said:

but you suck one [censored] and you're Joe [censored] till the day
you die.

Thats a bit of a below the belt attack on poor heather.

Or "above the navel attack", it depends.

h squared said:

h (unwilling to sign full name to this post) h

You could always sign yourself as hugh then, however you is probably the
correct rbr fonetic speling.

Quoted message said:

You can take your candyass picks over to http://www.fantasycyclinggame.com

If I understand the rbr definition of 'candyass' correctly, then I
would pick Basso to win on my fantasy team.

jeremy

Simon Brooke said:

It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't alter
the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does fail.

--

Okay, I'll bite: If Basso fails and Ullrich won't win, then who does?

in message <[email hidden]>, Scott

(') said:

Simon Brooke said:

It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't
alter the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does
fail.

Okay, I'll bite: If Basso fails and Ullrich won't win, then who does?

Somebody who can climb. Which means, of course, on this years form, not
Hincapie, not Savoldeli, not di Luca, not Simoni... Oh, and not
Rasmussen either, since although being able to climb is important, being
able to time trial also matters. Sandy Casar? It would cheer the French
up a bit.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
Iraq war: it's time for regime change...
... go now, Tony, while you can still go with dignity.
[update 18 months after this .sig was written: it's still relevant]

Simon Brooke said:

Scott (') said:

Simon Brooke said:

It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't
alter the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does
fail.

Okay, I'll bite: If Basso fails and Ullrich won't win, then who does?

Somebody who can climb. Which means, of course, on this years form, not
Hincapie, not Savoldeli, not di Luca, not Simoni... Oh, and not
Rasmussen either, since although being able to climb is important, being
able to time trial also matters. Sandy Casar? It would cheer the French
up a bit.

Alexandre,

If Sandy Casar outclimbs Ullrich with any consistency, even
L'Equipe's belief in the peloton-at-two-speeds theory will be
severely tested.

Last year, how many people consistently outclimbed Ullrich?
Perhaps Armstrong, Rasmussen, Basso; with Mancebo,
Leipheimer, Vino coming in a little behind Ullrich on average. Then
Landis, Kloden, Evans, maybe Christophe-Moreau-of-all-people.
Valverde could have been better, but he didn't finish and we didn't
get a sense of his consistency.

The fact is, in July, Ullrich has been a damn good climber for a
Sausage Creature. That doesn't mean he will win, but it means
somebody has to be a top-of-the-line climber _and_ not lose much
in the time trials to compete with Der Wurstjunge.

I wouldn't say Ullrich "deserves" the win - nobody deserves a Tour
win, they have to earn it. Well, okay, maybe Pou-Pou or Zoetemelk
deserved it. If Jan does manage to win it, it may be in spite of
himself, but you shouldn't count him out early.