Wild idea but ...

yes but...

if there are splits , they will more likely result from
crashes in the nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by the
cobbles themselves. P-R has a backdoor exit selection
throughout the day, here it will be like a mass sprint
buildup towards the first section.

Bart Van Hoorebeeck said:

yes but...

if there are splits , they will more likely result from
crashes in the nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by
the cobbles themselves. P-R has a backdoor exit selection
throughout the day, here it will be like a mass sprint
buildup towards the first section.

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995
when Indurain surprised everyone by making a break on a hill
with 30km left in the race. No one could keep up with him.
He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by them as well.
One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel. Lucky
for him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the line and
took the yellow jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the
stage win was Lance Armstrong. The rider who kept on
Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey and the stage win-
Johan Bruyneel.

trg said:

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995
when Indurain surprised everyone by making a break on a
hill with 30km left in the race. No one could keep up with
him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by them as
well. One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel.
Lucky for him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the
line and took the yellow jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the
stage win was Lance Armstrong. The rider who kept on
Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey and the stage win-
Johan Bruyneel.

That stage had a complete different profile from what we'll
see tomorrow..

The route in 1995 was more like a Luik-Bastenaken-Luik (from
start tot finish), with a lot of climbs. While tomorrow, one
can expect a little piece of like Paris-Roubaix. (no more
than two difficult passages with cobbles)

Greets, Arne Vogel.

Bird said:

trg said:

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995
when Indurain surprised everyone by making a break on a
hill with 30km left in the race. No one could keep up
with him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by
them as well. One rider from the break managed to hold
his wheel. Lucky for him too because he outsprinted
Indurain at the line and took the yellow jersey and the
stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the
stage win was Lance Armstrong. The rider who kept on
Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey and the stage
win- Johan Bruyneel.

That stage had a complete different profile from what
we'll see tomorrow..

The route in 1995 was more like a Luik-Bastenaken-Luik
(from start tot finish), with a lot of climbs. While
tomorrow, one can expect a little piece of like Paris-
Roubaix. (no more than two difficult passages with
cobbles)

Greets, Arne Vogel.

Profile is different but idea is the same, the patron makes
a break in a spot 25km from the end where he can put some
distance between him and his rivals, motors to the end.
Maybe Armstrong can eliminate Mayo from the mix. It's after
all Carrefour de l'Arbre, which I doubt Mayo can handle very
well, given his weight and experience.

Anyway tomorrow's forecast is for sun, so that will reduce
the chances of a pileup in the pavé.

Bird said:

trg said:

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995
when Indurain surprised everyone by making a break on a
hill with 30km left in the race. No one could keep up with
him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by them as
well. One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel.
Lucky for him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the
line and took the yellow jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the
stage win was Lance Armstrong. The rider who kept on
Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey and the stage win-
Johan Bruyneel.

That stage had a complete different profile from what
we'll see tomorrow..

The route in 1995 was more like a Luik-Bastenaken-Luik
(from start tot finish), with a lot of climbs. While
tomorrow, one can expect a little piece of like Paris-
Roubaix. (no more than two difficult passages with
cobbles)

I was under the impression that these sections of cobble
were rebuilt specifically because of their Tour inclusion.
No doubt they'll still rattle the teeth, but no big potholes
and probably have the surface evened out a bit.

"trg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was thinking
back to the

crash

Quoted message said:

on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively eliminated
Lance's main competitor Zulle from contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time while
Zulle was the best of the rest (Ullrich missed that year and
Zulle was had the best GT record by far although he had been
out on a suspension from the Festina affair). During that
time, nobody really had any reason to think Lance would
finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km from the finish
tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong and a
teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter the
cobbles to avoid problems. What would happen if the two of
them took off as soon as they entered the cobbles? The
entire peleton, GC teams as well as sprinter

teams

Quoted message said:

would be threatened and give chase. It could very well
provoke a crash in the peleton (especially if it's wet)
and one or more main contenders could have a very bad day
(think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with
them and who lost how much time, they could give a big
effort the final 20k to the line.

Lance

Quoted message said:

and Eki alone could even try a 2 man TT if the gap is
big enough.

Down side is going at full effort for the last 25k the day
before the TTT, but since the most they will likely pick
up in the TTT is 10 seconds (assuming they don't
intentionally come in second to CSC to get Bjarne's boys
spend the energy to keep Voigt in yellow), might be worth
the bet to see who gets caught out on the wrong side of
the split. At the very worst, it won't be Armstrong.

He probably thinks he has no reason to take a chance at a
break like you suggest but that is what the Tour organizers
intended when they set up the course for this year's Tour.
This Tour will most likely be won by the boldest of the top
racers. I doubt Tyler would be allowed to get away with a
break like last year but that is just the kind of thing that
could actually set up the winner in Paris this year.

Wasn't that a stage onto Leige in 1995? And I remember it
well, one rider went with Indurian and stated it was like
following a motorcycle.

trg said:

Bart Van Hoorebeeck said:

yes but...

if there are splits , they will more likely result from
crashes in the nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by
the cobbles themselves. P-R has a backdoor exit selection
throughout the day, here it will be like a mass sprint
buildup towards the first section.

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995
when Indurain surprised everyone by making a break on a
hill with 30km left in the race. No one could keep up with
him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by them as
well. One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel.
Lucky for him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the
line and took the yellow jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the
stage win was Lance Armstrong. The rider who kept on
Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey and the stage win-
Johan Bruyneel.

Chris said:

"trg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was
thinking back to the crash on the cobbles at Gois in '99
which effectively eliminated Lance's main competitor
Zulle from contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time
while Zulle was the best of the rest (Ullrich missed that
year and Zulle was had the best GT record by far although
he had been out on a suspension from the Festina affair).
During that time, nobody really had any reason to think
Lance would finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km from the finish
tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong and
a teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter
the cobbles to avoid problems. What would happen if the
two of them took off as soon as they entered the cobbles?
The entire peleton, GC teams as well as sprinter teams
would be threatened and give chase. It could very well
provoke a crash in the peleton (especially if it's wet)
and one or more main contenders could have a very bad day
(think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with
them and who lost how much time, they could give a big
effort the final 20k to the line. Lance and Eki alone
could even try a 2 man TT if the gap is big enough.

Down side is going at full effort for the last 25k the
day before the TTT, but since the most they will likely
pick up in the TTT is 10 seconds (assuming they don't
intentionally come in second to CSC to get Bjarne's boys
spend the energy to keep Voigt in yellow), might be worth
the bet to see who gets caught out on the wrong side of
the split. At the very worst, it won't be Armstrong.

He probably thinks he has no reason to take a chance at a
break like you suggest but that is what the Tour
organizers intended when they set up the course for this
year's Tour. This Tour will most likely be won by the
boldest of the top racers. I doubt Tyler would be allowed
to get away with a break like last year but that is just
the kind of thing that could actually set up the winner in
Paris this year.

The safest thing to do sometimes is to attack. But even if
it's not the safest thing, I've heard Bruyneel say, "Lance
wins because he's willing to risk losing."

"trg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was thinking
back to the crash on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which
effectively eliminated Lance's main competitor Zulle from
contention. There is a section of cobbles at 25 km from
the finish tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see
Armstrong and a teammate like George or Eki at the front
as the enter the cobbles to avoid problems. What would
happen if the two of them took off as soon as they entered
the cobbles? The entire peleton, GC teams as well as
sprinter teams would be threatened and give chase. It
could very well provoke a crash in the peleton (especially
if it's wet) and one or more main contenders could have a
very bad day (think Mayo).

PelOton. 'O' as in "oh!"

McEewen is in yellow today -- now THAT is wild! The cobbles
and crashes and stuff split up the bunch and now all those
favoring Mayo before the Tour started have their hopes
completely crushed.

Lance in Yellow tomorrow then after the TTT.

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with
them and who lost how much time, they could give a big
effort the final 20k to the line. Lance and Eki alone
could even try a 2 man TT if the gap is big enough.

Down side is going at full effort for the last 25k the day
before the TTT, but since the most they will likely pick
up in the TTT is 10 seconds (assuming they don't
intentionally come in second to CSC to get Bjarne's boys
spend the energy to keep Voigt in yellow), might be worth
the bet to see who gets caught out on the wrong side of
the split. At the very worst, it won't be Armstrong.

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote ...

Quoted message said:

"ANONYMOUS trg" <[email protected]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was
thinking back to the

crash

Quoted message said:

on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively
eliminated Lance's main competitor Zulle from
contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time
while Zulle was the best of the rest (Ullrich missed that
year and Zulle was had the best GT record by far although
he had been out on a suspension from the Festina affair).
During that time, nobody really had any reason to think
Lance would finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

People who followed Lance's build-up in 1999 were not
surprised. You're wrong when you say "nobody has any
reason..." B.S.! (go back and read RBR during the 1999
season Chris) ((esp. after Lance's 4th place in Vuelta in
'98))

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km from the finish
tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong and
a teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter
the cobbles to avoid problems. What would happen if the
two of them took off as soon as they entered the cobbles?
The entire peleton, GC teams as well as sprinter

teams

Quoted message said:

would be threatened and give chase. It could very well
provoke a crash in the peleton (especially if it's wet)
and one or more main contenders could have a very bad
day (think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with
them and who lost how much time, they could give a big
effort the final 20k to the line.

Lance.......

Bart Van Hoorebeeck <[email hidden]> wrote on Monday:

Quoted message said:

yes but...

Quoted message said:

if there are splits , they will more likely result from
crashes in the nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by
the cobbles themselves. P-R has a backdoor exit selection
throughout the day, here it will be like a mass sprint
buildup towards the first section.

Bart gets maximum points for prediction, but is fined CHF 20
for not wearing his UCI-regulation CAPS LOCK MAN jersey.

"K. J. Papai" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote ...

Quoted message said:

"ANONYMOUS trg" <[email protected]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was
thinking back to the

crash

Quoted message said:

on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively
eliminated Lance's

main

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

competitor Zulle from contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time
while Zulle was

the

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

best of the rest (Ullrich missed that year and Zulle was
had the best GT record by far although he had been out
on a suspension from the Festina affair). During that
time, nobody really had any reason to think Lance

would

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

People who followed Lance's build-up in 1999 were not
surprised. You're wrong when you say "nobody has any
reason..." B.S.!

You are such a damn silly homer. Show me some articles you
posted where you picked Lance to win. Are they dated prior
to the first mountain stage in 1999? If so, I will be
impressed. Until then, please read on.

Quoted message said:

(go back and read RBR during the 1999 season Chris) ((esp.
after Lance's 4th place in Vuelta in '98))

-Ken

Ken,

Every year there are at least a half dozen guys that are
featured discussing the reasons for their confidence in
their bid to win (eve even place well up on GC) the Tour.
That does not mean that anyone beleives them. Yes, Lance
indicated he would tackle GC but he was not a favorite for
yellow in Paris. Review your own videos (I know you have
them) and look at how surprised Lance is both after the
first (long) ITT (not just the prolog) and the first
mountain stage. Only then did Lance have the confidence that
he would win. He was a dark horse contender up to that
point. Sometimes those guys win but that does not make them
a favorite retroactively.

Also, don't give me this [censored] that Armstrong always knew he
would win the Tour. There were only a small handful of
people that (correctly) knew Lance had what it took. Nobody
knew how long it would be or under what circumstances. I am
the only that pointed out Lance was hired by Cyrille
Guimard in 1996 for the 1997 Cofidis team with the idea of
getting him to the Tour as a contender for GC. None of that
makes him a favorite for the 1999 edition. It just is not
true. Look at how many people have won (not just 4th!) the
Vuelta and or the Giro and never even got on the podium
(some have never even cranked the top 10!) of the Tour. You
do not get the benefit of hindsight unless you can show me
documented evidence that you had money on him winning in
1999 dated before the first mountain stage. Everyone knew
afterwards, um duh.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km from the finish
tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong

and a

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter
the cobbles to

avoid

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

problems. What would happen if the two of them took
off as soon as

they

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

entered the cobbles? The entire peleton, GC teams as
well as sprinter

teams

Quoted message said:

would be threatened and give chase. It could very well
provoke a crash

in

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

the peleton (especially if it's wet) and one or more
main contenders

could

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

have a very bad day (think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's
with them and who

lost

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

how much time, they could give a big effort the final
20k to the line.

Lance.......