Wild idea but ...

yes but...

if there are splits , they will more likely result from crashes in the
nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by the cobbles themselves.
P-R has a backdoor exit selection throughout the day, here it will be like a
mass sprint buildup towards the first section.

Bart Van Hoorebeeck said:

yes but...

if there are splits , they will more likely result from crashes in the
nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by the cobbles themselves.
P-R has a backdoor exit selection throughout the day, here it will be
like a mass sprint buildup towards the first section.

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995 when Indurain
surprised everyone by making a break on a hill with 30km left in the race.
No one could keep up with him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by
them as well. One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel. Lucky for
him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the line and took the yellow
jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the stage win was Lance
Armstrong. The rider who kept on Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey
and the stage win- Johan Bruyneel.

trg said:

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995 when Indurain
surprised everyone by making a break on a hill with 30km left in the race.
No one could keep up with him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by
them as well. One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel. Lucky for
him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the line and took the yellow
jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the stage win was Lance
Armstrong. The rider who kept on Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey
and the stage win- Johan Bruyneel.

That stage had a complete different profile from what we'll see
tomorrow..

The route in 1995 was more like a Luik-Bastenaken-Luik (from start tot
finish), with a lot of climbs. While tomorrow, one can expect a little
piece of like Paris-Roubaix. (no more than two difficult passages
with cobbles)

Greets,
Arne Vogel.

Bird said:

trg said:

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995 when
Indurain surprised everyone by making a break on a hill with 30km
left in the race. No one could keep up with him. He bridged up to
the break ahead and blew by them as well. One rider from the break
managed to hold his wheel. Lucky for him too because he outsprinted
Indurain at the line and took the yellow jersey and the stage as
well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the stage win
was Lance Armstrong. The rider who kept on Indurain's wheel and
captured the jersey and the stage win- Johan Bruyneel.

That stage had a complete different profile from what we'll see
tomorrow..

The route in 1995 was more like a Luik-Bastenaken-Luik (from start tot
finish), with a lot of climbs. While tomorrow, one can expect a little
piece of like Paris-Roubaix. (no more than two difficult passages
with cobbles)

Greets,
Arne Vogel.

Profile is different but idea is the same, the patron makes a break in a
spot 25km from the end where he can put some distance between him and his
rivals, motors to the end. Maybe Armstrong can eliminate Mayo from the mix.
It's after all Carrefour de l'Arbre, which I doubt Mayo can handle very
well, given his weight and experience.

Anyway tomorrow's forecast is for sun, so that will reduce the chances of a
pileup in the pavé.

Bird said:

trg said:

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995 when Indurain
surprised everyone by making a break on a hill with 30km left in the race.
No one could keep up with him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by
them as well. One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel. Lucky for
him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the line and took the yellow
jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the stage win was Lance
Armstrong. The rider who kept on Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey
and the stage win- Johan Bruyneel.

That stage had a complete different profile from what we'll see
tomorrow..

The route in 1995 was more like a Luik-Bastenaken-Luik (from start tot
finish), with a lot of climbs. While tomorrow, one can expect a little
piece of like Paris-Roubaix. (no more than two difficult passages
with cobbles)

I was under the impression that these sections of cobble were rebuilt
specifically because of their Tour inclusion. No doubt they'll still
rattle the teeth, but no big potholes and probably have the surface
evened out a bit.

"trg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was thinking back to the

crash

Quoted message said:

on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively eliminated Lance's main
competitor Zulle from contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time while Zulle was the
best of the rest (Ullrich missed that year and Zulle was had the best GT
record by far although he had been out on a suspension from the Festina
affair). During that time, nobody really had any reason to think Lance would
finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km
from the finish tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong and a
teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter the cobbles to avoid
problems. What would happen if the two of them took off as soon as they
entered the cobbles? The entire peleton, GC teams as well as sprinter

teams

Quoted message said:

would be threatened and give chase. It could very well provoke a crash in
the peleton (especially if it's wet) and one or more main contenders could
have a very bad day (think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with them and who lost
how much time, they could give a big effort the final 20k to the line.

Lance

Quoted message said:

and Eki alone could even try a 2 man TT if the gap is big enough.

Down side is going at full effort for the last 25k the day before the TTT,
but since the most they will likely pick up in the TTT is 10 seconds
(assuming they don't intentionally come in second to CSC to get Bjarne's
boys spend the energy to keep Voigt in yellow), might be worth the bet to
see who gets caught out on the wrong side of the split. At the very worst,
it won't be Armstrong.

He probably thinks he has no reason to take a chance at a break like you
suggest but that is what the Tour organizers intended when they set up the
course for this year's Tour. This Tour will most likely be won by the
boldest of the top racers. I doubt Tyler would be allowed to get away with a
break like last year but that is just the kind of thing that could actually
set up the winner in Paris this year.

Wasn't that a stage onto Leige in 1995? And I remember it well, one
rider went with Indurian and stated it was like following a
motorcycle.

trg said:

Bart Van Hoorebeeck said:

yes but...

if there are splits , they will more likely result from crashes in the
nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by the cobbles themselves.
P-R has a backdoor exit selection throughout the day, here it will be
like a mass sprint buildup towards the first section.

True, but the same theory applies.

I was thinking back to a "flat" stage in the tour in 1995 when Indurain
surprised everyone by making a break on a hill with 30km left in the race.
No one could keep up with him. He bridged up to the break ahead and blew by
them as well. One rider from the break managed to hold his wheel. Lucky for
him too because he outsprinted Indurain at the line and took the yellow
jersey and the stage as well.

Indurain picked up a minute on his nearest rival.

The rider leading the chase group who had hopes for the stage win was Lance
Armstrong. The rider who kept on Indurain's wheel and captured the jersey
and the stage win- Johan Bruyneel.

Chris said:

"trg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was thinking back to
the crash on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively eliminated
Lance's main competitor Zulle from contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time while Zulle
was the best of the rest (Ullrich missed that year and Zulle was had
the best GT record by far although he had been out on a suspension
from the Festina affair). During that time, nobody really had any
reason to think Lance would finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km
from the finish tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong
and a teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter the
cobbles to avoid problems. What would happen if the two of them took
off as soon as they entered the cobbles? The entire peleton, GC
teams as well as sprinter teams would be threatened and give chase.
It could very well provoke a crash in the peleton (especially if
it's wet) and one or more main contenders could have a very bad day
(think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with them and
who lost how much time, they could give a big effort the final 20k
to the line. Lance and Eki alone could even try a 2 man TT if the
gap is big enough.

Down side is going at full effort for the last 25k the day before
the TTT, but since the most they will likely pick up in the TTT is
10 seconds (assuming they don't intentionally come in second to CSC
to get Bjarne's boys spend the energy to keep Voigt in yellow),
might be worth the bet to see who gets caught out on the wrong side
of the split. At the very worst, it won't be Armstrong.

He probably thinks he has no reason to take a chance at a break like
you suggest but that is what the Tour organizers intended when they
set up the course for this year's Tour. This Tour will most likely be
won by the boldest of the top racers. I doubt Tyler would be allowed
to get away with a break like last year but that is just the kind of
thing that could actually set up the winner in Paris this year.

The safest thing to do sometimes is to attack. But even if it's not the
safest thing, I've heard Bruyneel say, "Lance wins because he's willing to
risk losing."

"trg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was thinking back to the crash
on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively eliminated Lance's main
competitor Zulle from contention. There is a section of cobbles at 25 km
from the finish tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong and a
teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter the cobbles to avoid
problems. What would happen if the two of them took off as soon as they
entered the cobbles? The entire peleton, GC teams as well as sprinter teams
would be threatened and give chase. It could very well provoke a crash in
the peleton (especially if it's wet) and one or more main contenders could
have a very bad day (think Mayo).

PelOton. 'O' as in "oh!"

McEewen is in yellow today -- now THAT is wild!
The cobbles and crashes and stuff split up the
bunch and now all those favoring Mayo before
the Tour started have their hopes completely crushed.

Lance in Yellow tomorrow then after the TTT.

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with them and who lost
how much time, they could give a big effort the final 20k to the line. Lance
and Eki alone could even try a 2 man TT if the gap is big enough.

Down side is going at full effort for the last 25k the day before the TTT,
but since the most they will likely pick up in the TTT is 10 seconds
(assuming they don't intentionally come in second to CSC to get Bjarne's
boys spend the energy to keep Voigt in yellow), might be worth the bet to
see who gets caught out on the wrong side of the split. At the very worst,
it won't be Armstrong.

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote ...

Quoted message said:

"ANONYMOUS trg" <[email protected]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was thinking back to the

crash

Quoted message said:

on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively eliminated Lance's main
competitor Zulle from contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time while Zulle was the
best of the rest (Ullrich missed that year and Zulle was had the best GT
record by far although he had been out on a suspension from the Festina
affair). During that time, nobody really had any reason to think Lance would
finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

People who followed Lance's build-up in 1999 were not surprised.
You're wrong when you say "nobody has any reason..." B.S.!
(go back and read RBR during the 1999 season Chris)
((esp. after Lance's 4th place in Vuelta in '98))

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km
from the finish tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong and a
teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter the cobbles to avoid
problems. What would happen if the two of them took off as soon as they
entered the cobbles? The entire peleton, GC teams as well as sprinter

teams

Quoted message said:

would be threatened and give chase. It could very well provoke a crash in
the peleton (especially if it's wet) and one or more main contenders could
have a very bad day (think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with them and who lost
how much time, they could give a big effort the final 20k to the line.

Lance.......

Bart Van Hoorebeeck <[email hidden]> wrote on Monday:

Quoted message said:

yes but...

Quoted message said:

if there are splits , they will more likely result from crashes in the
nervous rush towards the cobbles, then by the cobbles themselves.
P-R has a backdoor exit selection throughout the day, here it will be like a
mass sprint buildup towards the first section.

Bart gets maximum points for prediction, but is fined CHF 20
for not wearing his UCI-regulation CAPS LOCK MAN jersey.

"K. J. Papai" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote ...

Quoted message said:

"ANONYMOUS trg" <[email protected]...

Quoted message said:

Could we see Armstrong in a break tomorrow? I was thinking back to the

crash

Quoted message said:

on the cobbles at Gois in '99 which effectively eliminated Lance's

main

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

competitor Zulle from contention.

Lance was only a surprising prolog winner at that time while Zulle was

the

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

best of the rest (Ullrich missed that year and Zulle was had the best GT
record by far although he had been out on a suspension from the Festina
affair). During that time, nobody really had any reason to think Lance

would

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

finish anywhere near the top of the GC.

People who followed Lance's build-up in 1999 were not surprised.
You're wrong when you say "nobody has any reason..." B.S.!

You are such a damn silly homer. Show me some articles you posted where you
picked Lance to win. Are they dated prior to the first mountain stage in
1999? If so, I will be impressed. Until then, please read on.

Quoted message said:

(go back and read RBR during the 1999 season Chris)
((esp. after Lance's 4th place in Vuelta in '98))

-Ken

Ken,

Every year there are at least a half dozen guys that are featured discussing
the reasons for their confidence in their bid to win (eve even place well up
on GC) the Tour. That does not mean that anyone beleives them. Yes, Lance
indicated he would tackle GC but he was not a favorite for yellow in Paris.
Review your own videos (I know you have them) and look at how surprised
Lance is both after the first (long) ITT (not just the prolog) and the first
mountain stage. Only then did Lance have the confidence that he would win.
He was a dark horse contender up to that point. Sometimes those guys win but
that does not make them a favorite retroactively.

Also, don't give me this [censored] that Armstrong always knew he would win the
Tour. There were only a small handful of people that (correctly) knew Lance
had what it took. Nobody knew how long it would be or under what
circumstances. I am the only that pointed out Lance was hired by Cyrille
Guimard in 1996 for the 1997 Cofidis team with the idea of getting him to
the Tour as a contender for GC. None of that makes him a favorite for the
1999 edition. It just is not true. Look at how many people have won (not
just 4th!) the Vuelta and or the Giro and never even got on the podium (some
have never even cranked the top 10!) of the Tour. You do not get the benefit
of hindsight unless you can show me documented evidence that you had money
on him winning in 1999 dated before the first mountain stage. Everyone knew
afterwards, um duh.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

There is a section of cobbles at 25 km
from the finish tomorrow. No one would be surprised to see Armstrong

and a

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

teammate like George or Eki at the front as the enter the cobbles to

avoid

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

problems. What would happen if the two of them took off as soon as

they

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

entered the cobbles? The entire peleton, GC teams as well as sprinter

teams

Quoted message said:

would be threatened and give chase. It could very well provoke a crash

in

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

the peleton (especially if it's wet) and one or more main contenders

could

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

have a very bad day (think Mayo).

Then, when they hit the asphalt, depending on who's with them and who

lost

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

how much time, they could give a big effort the final 20k to the line.

Lance.......