So here's my response: you guys are neglecting the fact that all of the numbers in these lab tests are measured with error. The power output, for example, could easily be 3-5% off, as could the other numbers. You need to take this into account when you interpret the data.
gregf83 said:
You need to be clear on whether you're talking about gross efficiency or delta efficiency. According to "No differences in cycling efficiency between world-class and recreational cyclists." [Int J Sports Med. 2004] - PubMed result the mean Gross Efficiency @ 165W was around 18.6% for all athletes tested (some were over 22%, some in the 14-15% range).
You're right about this. His 18kcal/minute is gross not delta, so that's part of the difference, but the numbers are still pretty extreme. His gross efficiency was measured at 17.5%, less than any subject in either that article or in the well known Coyle 1992 article (citation 8 in the article you cited).
Furthermore, let's imagine that Tony's base metabolism is a pretty high 2400kcal/day (this would be for someone about 6'4" and 230 lbs). That would put his delta efficiency at 18%, again lower than any subject in either article.
Now, remember these things are MEASURED WITH ERROR, both in Tony's case and in the data in the articles. That means that if you cherry pick the lowest number in the data sample, you have with probability approaching one (as the sample increases) chosen the one with the biggest underestimate. This means that the min in the sample is a biased and inconsistent estimate of the true population min (i.e., it is not a good estimate, it is downward biased, and the bigger the sample the worse the bias so a larger sample will not get you the right answer).
You can't therefore say that in the data there was one person with a DE of 18.3% and declare that as the reasonable range for humans. You picked the data point that with very high probability had the largest downward error in it. It is very very likely that that person's true DE was actually higher than 18.3%.
OK so you can make of this what you want. The fact that Tony's number is even smaller than the min in either sample suggests that his data is in error. However, that said, like all things in statistics, we can't know for sure. All we can say is that it's highly unlikely. He can go on believing that he's burning 1150kcal from 220w (actually even then it's only 1050kcal because 100kcal would be his base metabolism), but I'm pretty sure he isn't. My reasoning: noone else is, and lab tests are pretty noisy so it's more likely that the test was wrong than that Tony is some super-special guy.