"jim gravity" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...
Quoted message said:It looks like Heras dropped Nozal with 4.5km of climbing, and gained about 1'20" by the summit.
About 17 seconds per kilometer.
If it translates into tomorrows climb, Heras wins by more than 3 minutes.
It's flatter though, so maybe Nozal will have an advantage.
But, mountain time trials aren't forgiving to those that go hard at the begining. The first time
check, the steep section in the early kms, the lack of a faithful teammate to pace, and the
"VENGAVENGAVENGA" blasting in his ear are some of the things that will trouble Nozal.
It will be interesting. But direct comparisons are not easy. Consider,
1. Today's climb came at the end of a road stage. Not so tomorrow.
2. The average grade for the last 4.5 km of the climb today was perhaps
3.5%. Tomorrow the overall average will be 5.6% which works in Nozal's favor except for the steep
part going up to 17% at the beginning of the time trial. After that, on paper, the climb is ok
for Nozal.
4. The leader's jersey is a plus but then Roberto can't enjoy the prospect of another 2nd place. At
least it's not fourth.
5. Saiz--could be a plus or a minus. He is well regarded by his riders and perhaps the Latin
temperament mixes well with Nozal. Nozal can always drop his earpiece a al Ullrich.
IMO, the bottom line is that they will both ride with HRMs and will both go as fast as possible
within their limits. I look for Heras to take a chunk of time by the first 3km with Nozal holding
even or gaining a bit back by the end. My prediction is for Nozal to have a 12 to 20 second lead
going into the final day.
