Valverde

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him? I was
shocked how bad he did today. If he goes on the attack tomorrow, they
will still mark him pretty close so I'm not sure he can recuperate
much of the time he lost. The main threats now must be Kloden and
Evans, The skeleton....something's going on with the skeleton (much
better nickname than Chicken), I think he'll still crack somewhere
along the line.

Wanna bet that Chicken's got /more/ than a minutte to Evans, and more
than 3 minuttes to Klöden and Contador after the Pyraneas?

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

Morten Reippuert Knudsen said:

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him? I was
shocked how bad he did today. If he goes on the attack tomorrow, they
will still mark him pretty close so I'm not sure he can recuperate
much of the time he lost. The main threats now must be Kloden and
Evans, The skeleton....something's going on with the skeleton (much
better nickname than Chicken), I think he'll still crack somewhere
along the line.

Wanna bet that Chicken's got /more/ than a minutte to Evans, and more
than 3 minuttes to Klöden and Contador after the Pyraneas?

I won't bet against you on that! After such a good show with the 2005
fiasco wiped from his memory, and with the confidence he has and the
magic yellow jersey effect, I expect Kyllingen to put the hurt on
tommorow in a big way. I think he'll take more than you suggest out of
those guys in one day. I should go out for a ride, but I'm gonna watch
every minute!

Joseph

in message <[email hidden]>, Morten Reippuert Knudsen

(') said:

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him? I was
shocked how bad he did today. If he goes on the attack tomorrow, they
will still mark him pretty close so I'm not sure he can recuperate
much of the time he lost. The main threats now must be Kloden and
Evans, The skeleton....something's going on with the skeleton (much
better nickname than Chicken), I think he'll still crack somewhere
along the line.

Wanna bet that Chicken's got /more/ than a minutte to Evans,

Yes.

Quoted message said:

and more
than 3 minuttes to Klöden

Not necessarily.

Quoted message said:

and Contador after the Pyraneas?

Yes.

The Chicken ain't a team player, and in any case doesn't have a team who
can support/protect him in the mountains. Evans doesn't either. Rasmussen
can climb away from the whole peloton, and so is a good bet to win 14 and
16 (mountain top finish). Stage 15, however, doesn't benefit Rasmussen
nearly so much - it has only one HC and a descent to the end. So strong
teams will help.

Looking at the Astana situation, Vino can only win now if he goes in a
break. So he will go in a break, probably on 15. But a Vino/Rasmussen
break on either 14 or 16 isn't impossible, although it wouldn't stay
together to the end (and I wouldn't know which way to call it).

So Astana will be able to support Kloden on the day(s) Vino goes for it,
and Astana is far and away the strongest team this year. And this is a
good strategy for the team because if Vino's break succeeds he can get
time back, but if it fails Kloden's good for the win.

Vino isn't a team player, anyway. It's better for him as well as better for
the team if he's off as a lone wolf, doing his usual crazy things. He's
the most complete individual cyclist in this year's tour, the only one who
can climb with the very best and timetrial with the very best. It's /much/
too early to write him off (but it would also be foolish to bet your shirt
on him to win).

Contador's a different case. He's shown he has an amazing uphill sprint. If
a 'leaders group' do climb together on the last climb of either 14 or 16,
Contador could take seconds off the rest of the leaders. I don't think he
can take minutes. I don't think he can stay away for long in the
mountains, and I certainly don't think he could stay with Rasmussen and/or
Vino on a charge.

We shouldn't be surprised by Rasmussen's time trial of today. What he does
on his extraordinary individual mountain charges fundamentally is extreme
time trialling. He can stay focussed, alone, at high output for long
periods. He doesn't need a rabbit to chase, and he doesn't need riders to
protect him. His dreadful 2005 stage 20 time trial was a combination of
nerves and unfamiliarity with the bike. With each successive crash he lost
confidence; and we all remember that and say 'oh, Rasmussen can't time
trial'. We forget that he won stage 8 this year as a time trial, stage 9
in 2005 as a time trial, and stage 16 in 2006 as a time trial. The guy is
a super time-triallist, he just doesn't normally do it on a time trial
bike.

I'd like to see Sastre do something in the Pyrenees, but he's left it
awfully late, and I'm not convinced he can counter Rasmussen. Tomorrow's
stage, though, is going to be a good one.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

Wise man with foot in mouth use opportunity to clean toes.
;; the Worlock

On Jul 21, 12:24 pm, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him? I was
shocked how bad he did today. If he goes on the attack tomorrow, they
will still mark him pretty close so I'm not sure he can recuperate
much of the time he lost. The main threats now must be Kloden and
Evans, The skeleton....something's going on with the skeleton (much
better nickname than Chicken), I think he'll still crack somewhere
along the line.

Wanna bet that Chicken's got /more/ than a minutte to Evans, and more
than 3 minuttes to Klöden and Contador after the Pyraneas?

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

He may gain a few seconds on Evans but I don't think he'll gain
anything on Kloden. Plus some Spanish rider will probably take yellow
after the Pyrenees.

Andre

On 07/21/2007 02:11 PM, in article
[email hidden], "Simon Brooke"

Quoted message said:

The Chicken ain't a team player, and in any case doesn't have a team who
can support/protect him in the mountains. Evans doesn't either. Rasmussen
can climb away from the whole peloton, and so is a good bet to win 14 and
16 (mountain top finish). Stage 15, however, doesn't benefit Rasmussen
nearly so much - it has only one HC and a descent to the end. So strong
teams will help.

Astana has 3 riders in the top-ten, and Discovery has 2 in the top 5 (along
with Popovych in 15th).

Except for Menchov, back in 16th, Rabobank has nobody anywhere near the top
of the standings, and haven't really been doing well in the mountains
(Ass-munchin the doper excepted).

If Astana and Discovery are smart, they use their strength in numbers to
keep sending riders on the attack ... Ass-munchin will have to cover each
and every move himself; which is sure to wear him out ... if not tomorrow,
then in the following stages, especially after his effort today.

--
Steven L. Sheffield
stevens at veloworks dot com
bellum pax est libertas servitus est ignoratio vis est
ess ay ell tea ell ay kay ee sea eye tee why you ti ay aitch
aitch tee tea pea colon [for word] slash [four ward] slash double-you
double-yew double-ewe dot flahute dot com [foreword] slash

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him?

Dumbass -

No.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him?

Dumbass -

No.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

And I suppose you're poo-pooing Vino too?

Steven L. Sheffield said:

Quoted message said:

The Chicken ain't a team player, and in any case doesn't have a team who
can support/protect him in the mountains. Evans doesn't either. Rasmussen
can climb away from the whole peloton, and so is a good bet to win 14 and
16 (mountain top finish). Stage 15, however, doesn't benefit Rasmussen
nearly so much - it has only one HC and a descent to the end. So strong
teams will help.

Quoted message said:

Astana has 3 riders in the top-ten, and Discovery has 2 in the top 5 (along
with Popovych in 15th).

Quoted message said:

Except for Menchov, back in 16th, Rabobank has nobody anywhere near the top
of the standings, and haven't really been doing well in the mountains

Dekker, Nierman will do well, Boogerd has before proven that he's able
to kill himself in the mountains when helping Menchov and Rasmussen. I
don't expect a lot of help from Menchov. Rasmussen will be on his own
halfway on final climbs on stage 14 and 16, but so will the rest of
the favorites except for Astana.

Astana is all about Vinokurov. Kloeden will only be alowed to defend
(witch i think will be enough to stay within striking range before the
last TT)

Quoted message said:

(Ass-munchin the doper excepted).

?? show me a recent positive doping test. Or show me a rider active
before 05 without any rumors or any connections to doping. Any rider
with ties to Once, Telekom, Discovery, CSC, Phonak, Mapai, Kelme,
Cofidis, Fassa Bortolo etc is under suspicion - only Kirchen and
Kashechkin among the current top 10 are without ties to those teams.

Quoted message said:

If Astana and Discovery are smart, they use their strength in numbers to
keep sending riders on the attack ... Ass-munchin will have to cover each
and every move himself; which is sure to wear him out ... if not tomorrow,
then in the following stages, especially after his effort today.

The only one dangerous enough on an attack from the distance is
Vinokurov, and Rasmussen might even be bold enough to go with him.
Rasmussen is the only one besides Vinokurov with the stamina to
finnish such an attack.

None of the Discovery boys has the stamina to finnish an attack from
the distance except Popovitch and he is 8 minuttes away, it's more
likely that he will be used as a target man for Contador as seen on
Galibie. Neither Evans or Sastre have the guts to go out on an attack
like that.

Rasmussens real problem is that he needs to contain Contador the final
2km of the two mt. top finnnishes, take a minutte or two on Kloeden
and Evans and stay with Vinokurov when he attacks from far away.

The Vino problem might be Rasmussens advantage and the lest to
difficult to overcome, plus it will eliminat the danger from Contador
getting bonus secconds.

If Rasmussen is on status quo after the rest day he will reive
additional help from those teams in 2.nd and 3.d as they will begin
defending their podium spots instead of attacking the jersy.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

Simon Brooke said:

Quoted message said:

Wanna bet that Chicken's got /more/ than a minutte to Evans,

Quoted message said:

Yes.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

and more
than 3 minuttes to Klöden

Quoted message said:

Not necessarily.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

and Contador after the Pyraneas?

Quoted message said:

Yes.

Quoted message said:

The Chicken ain't a team player, and in any case doesn't have a team who
can support/protect him in the mountains. Evans doesn't either. Rasmussen
can climb away from the whole peloton, and so is a good bet to win 14 and
16 (mountain top finish). Stage 15, however, doesn't benefit Rasmussen
nearly so much - it has only one HC and a descent to the end. So strong
teams will help.

Niermann and Dekker will do a lot of pulling on the first part of the
stages, Boogerd has during 05 and 06 proven that he can kill himself
in order to protect a teamleader in the mountains - he's TT yesterday
proved that he has the strength. Secondly there is a special
relationship between Rasmussen and Boogerd. In his first years with
Rabobank Rasmussen did a lot of work for Boogerd in the late autum
worldcup classics. I don't expect Menchov to be of any help.

Quoted message said:

Looking at the Astana situation, Vino can only win now if he goes in a
break. So he will go in a break, probably on 15. But a Vino/Rasmussen
break on either 14 or 16 isn't impossible, although it wouldn't stay
together to the end (and I wouldn't know which way to call it).

Thats the scenario i think Rasmussen is hoping for and Evans, Sastre,
Kloeden and Discovery fear the most: Rasmussen and Vino on an attack
from the distance.
Even if Vino drops him with a minutte by the end, he will still have a
4 minutte lead before the final TT, he will eliminate the danger
Contadors getting bouns seconds and put distance between him and
Evans/Kloeden.

Quoted message said:

So Astana will be able to support Kloden on the day(s) Vino goes for it,
and Astana is far and away the strongest team this year. And this is a
good strategy for the team because if Vino's break succeeds he can get
time back, but if it fails Kloden's good for the win.

Quoted message said:

Vino isn't a team player, anyway. It's better for him as well as better for
the team if he's off as a lone wolf, doing his usual crazy things. He's
the most complete individual cyclist in this year's tour, the only one who
can climb with the very best and timetrial with the very best. It's /much/
too early to write him off (but it would also be foolish to bet your shirt
on him to win).

Vinokurov doesn't need to be a teamplayer since he basicly owns the
team. He's even more in control with team than Armstrong where in
control with USP/Discovery. Astana is all about Vinokurov and Kloeden
is aware of it, the only reason Vino let Kloeden go on the Galibie
stage was that Vinokurov considered abbandoning the race at that moment.

Quoted message said:

Contador's a different case. He's shown he has an amazing uphill sprint. If
a 'leaders group' do climb together on the last climb of either 14 or 16,
Contador could take seconds off the rest of the leaders. I don't think he
can take minutes. I don't think he can stay away for long in the
mountains,

Agree; Rasmussen, Evans and Astana needs to contain Contador on the
last 2km on stage 14 and 16.

Quoted message said:

and I certainly don't think he could stay with Rasmussen and/or
Vino on a charge.

Actually, i think an early attack by Vino _and_ Rasmussen is a very likly
scenario on stage 15 or 16.

Quoted message said:

We shouldn't be surprised by Rasmussen's time trial of today. What he does
on his extraordinary individual mountain charges fundamentally is extreme
time trialling. He can stay focussed, alone, at high output for long
periods. He doesn't need a rabbit to chase, and he doesn't need riders to
protect him. His dreadful 2005 stage 20 time trial was a combination of
nerves and unfamiliarity with the bike. With each successive crash he lost
confidence; and we all remember that and say 'oh, Rasmussen can't time
trial'. We forget that he won stage 8 this year as a time trial, stage 9
in 2005 as a time trial, and stage 16 in 2006 as a time trial. The guy is
a super time-triallist, he just doesn't normally do it on a time trial
bike.

Quoted message said:

I'd like to see Sastre do something in the Pyrenees, but he's left it
awfully late, and I'm not convinced he can counter Rasmussen. Tomorrow's
stage, though, is going to be a good one.

Sastre wont win the race this year :-( but he will improve his
position to at least top 5 and he still has a fair shot at the 3rd
spot on the podium in Paris.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

On Jul 22, 12:43 am, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Actually, i think an early attack by Vino _and_ Rasmussen is a very likly
scenario on stage 15 or 16.

Dumbass -

Pull your head out of your Danish ass.

Vino is racing to win. He won't work w/ Rasmussen - he'll be attacking
him.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

On Sat, 21 Jul 2007 08:58:31 -0700, Andre <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him? I was
shocked how bad he did today. If he goes on the attack tomorrow, they
will still mark him pretty close so I'm not sure he can recuperate
much of the time he lost.

Getting passed by skeletor at the line in the TT was the final
spanking, knocking him form 2nd to out of the top 10. Wow. I'm going
to lose mega points in my betting pool over this flame out.

The guy has to pull today or tomorrow what Vino did in the TT to
regain enough time to re-establish his credibility, but he's out of
the money for the podium. Skeletor, Evans, Kloden, Contador, - even
Levi and Sastre- won't crack bad enough to allow him back in.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him? I was
shocked how bad he did today. If he goes on the attack tomorrow, they
will still mark him pretty close so I'm not sure he can recuperate
much of the time he lost. The main threats now must be Kloden and
Evans, The skeleton....something's going on with the skeleton (much
better nickname than Chicken), I think he'll still crack somewhere
along the line.

Andre

IMHO, Skeletor is even better...

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skeletor>

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Quoted message said:

Actually, i think an early attack by Vino _and_ Rasmussen is a very likly
scenario on stage 15 or 16.

Dumbass -

Pull your head out of your Danish ass.

Vino is racing to win. He won't work w/ Rasmussen - he'll be attacking
him.

Well Vinokuruv is finnished, i didn't see that comming. Rasmussen
almost bagged the Jersy until Paris today. Guess he doesn't need
Vinokurov.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

Morten Reippuert Knudsen said:

Andre said:

Is there any chance of a comeback in the next week for him? I was
shocked how bad he did today. If he goes on the attack tomorrow, they
will still mark him pretty close so I'm not sure he can recuperate
much of the time he lost. The main threats now must be Kloden and
Evans, The skeleton....something's going on with the skeleton (much
better nickname than Chicken), I think he'll still crack somewhere
along the line.

Quoted message said:

Wanna bet that Chicken's got /more/ than a minutte to Evans, and more
than 3 minuttes to Klöden and Contador after the Pyraneas?

After the first day in the pyraneas he is almost there:

2:34 to Contador
3:04 to Evans
4.38 to Kloeden.

It might be enough.

I don't see Leipheimer, Sastre or Kasheckin catching him.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

Morten Reippuert Knudsen said:

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Quoted message said:

Actually, i think an early attack by Vino _and_ Rasmussen is a very likly
scenario on stage 15 or 16.

Quoted message said:

Dumbass -

Quoted message said:

Pull your head out of your Danish ass.

Quoted message said:

Vino is racing to win. He won't work w/ Rasmussen - he'll be attacking
him.

Well Vinokuruv is finnished, i didn't see that comming. Rasmussen
almost bagged the Jersy until Paris today. Guess he doesn't need
Vinokurov.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

Easy for me to say it now, but I kind of suspected Vino was going to
blow up. He raced a great TT, but the reason he won was he didn't
crash, so it wasn't quite spectacular enough for me to overlook how
much he was hurting in the previous mountain stages.

Joseph

Fred Fredburger said:

Moran,

I was unaware that RBR charter required that one stay STRICTLY on the
topic of the 1st post in a thread.

Dumbass,
I thought your abiding dream was to be insulted on rbr, and now its
finally happened.

Simon Brooke said:

The Chicken ain't a team player, and in any case doesn't have a team who
can support/protect him in the mountains.

I thought Rabobank were pretty amazing today. Boogerd is one tough cookie,
the way he was dropped and then came back to put in another pull and
Thomas Dekker put in a massive amount of work.

Morten Reippuert Knudsen said:

Steven L. Sheffield said:

(Ass-munchin the doper excepted).

?? show me a recent positive doping test. Or show me a rider active
before 05 without any rumors or any connections to doping. Any rider
with ties to Once, Telekom, Discovery, CSC, Phonak, Mapai, Kelme,
Cofidis, Fassa Bortolo etc is under suspicion - only Kirchen and
Kashechkin among the current top 10 are without ties to those teams.

There's more to doping than getting away with it. Ass-Munchkin proved
himself to be a schmuck of the highest order when he tried to have
Whitney Richards act as his unwitting mule. It's one thing to dope,
it's another to have a purported friend possibly serve jail time by
getting popped in customs with _your_ [censored].

Your hero is an [censored], regardless of his nationality or palmares.
Come to terms with it.

R

in message <[email hidden]>, Kurgan

Gringioni (') said:

On Jul 22, 12:43 am, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Actually, i think an early attack by Vino _and_ Rasmussen is a very
likly scenario on stage 15 or 16.

Vino is racing to win. He won't work w/ Rasmussen - he'll be attacking
him.

Yes, of course. But Vino would have had to break the rest of the GC
contenders to do that, and his best chance of doing that was a one-stage
tactical alliance with Rasmussen, who has the same need to distance the
others. Rasmussen would have preferred Vino as a tactical ally today to
Contador, both because Vino is stronger and could have gone on a flyer
from further out, and because Contador's closer on GC. I'm using past
tense, because Vino cracked, and so Rasmussen had to use the one potential
tactical ally he had.

Tomorrow, they won't be allies.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; So, before proceeding with definitive screwing, choose the
;; position most congenital.
-- instructions for fitting bicycle handlebars