Unless there is a crash, is the GC over?

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in message
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

Either a mountain stage or the long ITT. Ullrich and other GC contenders
will be watching Lance closely in the mountains to see if he has a bad
day. If so (and if he's not bluffing), they will attack hard. Lance sometimes
has a bad day, so it's possible (but not likely) that he will lose some time
in one of the mountain stages.

In the long ITT, Ullrich and Hamilton are both excellent, but Lance is even
better when he's in good form. Once again, it's possible that Ullrich will gain
significant time as he did last year, but it's not likely.

Mike

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy. Maybe it will be
harder to pull off than it looks at the moment.

Doh! I'm trying to work and watch at the same time - I mis-heard the TTT
results for the GC standings. He does not have a minute. Of course what a
big difference that makes in my initial comments.

Hamilton is only 36 seconds behind (new timing for TTT) ........ that
ain't squat.

And there is the 60 km ITT as the penultimate stage. Ullrich's
forte there.

To think that is over is just assinine ....... obviously you know little
to nothing about stage racing.

--

Quoted message said:

To think that is over is just assinine ....... obviously you know little
to nothing about stage racing.

Obviously you know little about grammar. I was asking the question as to
whether or not it's over (crashes withstanding). Not making a statement
that it is indeed over.

Also, I already corrected myself on the GC standings.

But thanks for the enlightement anyway.

Super Fred timlambert @ mindspring . com said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)

Quoted message said:

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

Quoted message said:

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy. Maybe it will be
harder to pull off than it looks at the moment.

Ullrich pulled back more time than this in the two TTs last year. The
times from Nantes might not be an accurate gauge of ability since
Ullrich was under pressure to take risks and LANCE was under pressure
to ride conservatively. But if LANCE just follows wheels both Ullrich
and Hamilton are in a position to smoke him.

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more than capable
of riding away from the great climbers. Pantani won nothing that year
until he had gotten his butt kicked often enough that Jan didn't have
to watch him that closely.

This Tour will be close. My wife wants to spend Saturday the 24th in
Geneva. I have informed her that there is a distinct possibility that
I will have to bail and go to Besancon to see history be made.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> a écrit dans le message de
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy. Maybe it will be
harder to pull off than it looks at the moment.

Yeah, it's over. Go on home. Nothing here to see.

Bob Schwartz said:

This Tour will be close.

But the podium is still Lance, Jan, and Tyler, probably in that order.
The losses of a healthy Vinokourov and Belocki really dilutes the GC
contending talent and makes for a less exciting race. That, and the
likes of Mayo and Moreau losing so much time early.
--dt

Quoted message said:

Ullrich was under pressure to take risks and LANCE was under pressure
to ride conservatively. But if LANCE just follows wheels both Ullrich
and Hamilton are in a position to smoke him.

And how do you figure this? Posties have a much stronger team so far and
smoked all today.
And since when doed LA simply follow wheels? He appears in much better form
than last year.
Dogging the Dauphine appears to have paid off. Just watch the race unfold.

Quoted message said:

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more than capable
of riding away from the great climbers. Pantani won nothing that year
until he had gotten his butt kicked often enough that Jan didn't have
to watch him that closely.

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my grandmother had wheels,
she'd be a wagon.
Jan has shown us very little, except for his cheap words about no longer
wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF again.
I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The old days
of riding into form are over.

Look, I want Lance to win, but I am not an LA apologist. Every year we hear
talk about how this is the year he can be beat, and then he wins again. I am
just tired of all the JU apologists making excuses. Next thing we will be
talking about JU virtual TDF wins.

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in message
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy. Maybe it will be
harder to pull off than it looks at the moment.

After the 2003 TTT, Ullrich was 38 seconds down on Armstrong. Hamilton was
1'44"down.
This year Tyler is down by 36" with Ullrich down by 55"

It's far from over. Between, the time bonuses and the 2'30" maximum time
loss, Leblanc has made it a more open race. Too bad there aren't more
mountains this year.

Brian P said:

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my grandmother had
wheels, she'd be a wagon.
Jan has shown us very little, except for his cheap words about no
longer wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF
again.
I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The
old days of riding into form are over.

How else is a rider going to do it? A couple of needle [censored] a week alone
isn't enough.

Kyle Legate said:

Brian P said:

I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The
old days of riding into form are over.

How else is a rider going to do it? A couple of needle [censored] a week alone
isn't enough.

Oh I think it is very clear that the days of racing into shape are long
gone. I best technique seems to be *not* racing into shape. That is, you
spend some time away from the dope tests so that you can do the sort of
super-intensive training that the needle [censored] allow you to do. Give
yourself some time for things to clear from your system and you're good
to go.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

Brian P said:

Quoted message said:

Ullrich was under pressure to take risks and LANCE was under pressure
to ride conservatively. But if LANCE just follows wheels both Ullrich
and Hamilton are in a position to smoke him.

And how do you figure this? Posties have a much stronger team so far and
smoked all today.
And since when doed LA simply follow wheels? He appears in much better form
than last year.
Dogging the Dauphine appears to have paid off. Just watch the race unfold.

What I meant is that LANCE still needs to ride aggressively in the
mountains. If he doesn't pick up additional time there he is vulnerable.
And I appear to be the only one to think that his gaining time there is
not a given. But I don't think it's a given.

Let me put it this way. How much time in total did LANCE gain on Ullrich
in the two TTs last year?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more than capable
of riding away from the great climbers. Pantani won nothing that year
until he had gotten his butt kicked often enough that Jan didn't have
to watch him that closely.

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my grandmother had wheels,
she'd be a wagon.
Jan has shown us very little, except for his cheap words about no longer
wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF again.
I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The old days
of riding into form are over.

And what exactly are you expecting to be shown by this stage of the Tour?

What is different for Ullrich this year is that his run in to the Tour has
been incident free. No knee problems. His tendency to gain weight has been
addressed. No imploding sponsor.

When was the last time his Tour prep looked like that?

When was the last time he had a decent result in one of the HC stage races
leading into the Tour?

What happened in the Tour that year?

He's got a stronger team. His self-destructive tendencies appear to be
curbed. As you say, just watch the race unfold.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

In article <PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53>, [email hidden] says...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)
Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?
I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy. Maybe it will be
harder to pull off than it looks at the moment.

There is still a lot of racing left. Right now Lance is in a great position
to make history. We know he can TT. The real question is can he climb like
he has in years past? We won't know for a few days.
-------------
Alex

"Bob Schwartz" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Brian P said:

Quoted message said:

> > And since when doed LA simply follow wheels? He appears in much

better form

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

than last year.
Dogging the Dauphine appears to have paid off. Just watch the race

unfold.

Quoted message said:

What I meant is that LANCE still needs to ride aggressively in the
mountains. If he doesn't pick up additional time there he is vulnerable.
And I appear to be the only one to think that his gaining time there is
not a given. But I don't think it's a given.

Let me put it this way. How much time in total did LANCE gain on Ullrich
in the two TTs last year?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more than capable
of riding away from the great climbers. Pantani won nothing that year
until he had gotten his butt kicked often enough that Jan didn't have
to watch him that closely.

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my grandmother had wheels,
she'd be a wagon.
Jan has shown us very little, except for his cheap words about no longer
wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF again.
I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The old

days

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

of riding into form are over.

And what exactly are you expecting to be shown by this stage of the Tour?

What is different for Ullrich this year is that his run in to the Tour has
been incident free. No knee problems. His tendency to gain weight has been
addressed. No imploding sponsor.

When was the last time his Tour prep looked like that?

When was the last time he had a decent result in one of the HC stage races
leading into the Tour?

What happened in the Tour that year?

He's got a stronger team. His self-destructive tendencies appear to be
curbed. As you say, just watch the race unfold.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

Apparently, with the rain it was probably a better idea for Tmobile not to
go all out just yet, but I hope he hasn't lost too much time. Same thing in
the prologue. One of his teammates crashed and Ullrich was told not to take
risks with the slippery pavement and the curves.

I just wish LA would go away! It'snot just that he's won, but everything is
a lance-fest, even the coverage. ANd the interviews with his girlfriend and
the Lance Chronicles. Why bother, the whole network is the lance chronicles.
Not hard to forget who is sponsoring his team, that's for sure. THe tour has
become the same thing every year it seems, and the coverage is making it
worse! I wish we got Eurosport or France 2. Maybe it's dopey bu I keep
thinking, accch...another predictable tour. At least the Giro, you never
know who's going to win, that's why it's s much more fun!

However, I was also curious so I went back and looked at the results of the
1996 tour, when Indurain was going for 6. He and Riis were only a second
apart, right up until they got into the alps,which was stage 7, and that was
when poor Indurain had such a terrible time. Of course, the gap here is
somewhat bigger, but Riis was very patient and didn't take all kinds of
risks right off- he was very cool and waited until he saw the signs of
weakness. I don't think it was just bonking, I think it was the pressure
that got to him.

On Wed, 7 Jul 2004 16:58:31 -0400, Marlene Blanshay <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

"Bob Schwartz" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Brian P said:

> > > And since when doed LA simply follow wheels? He appears in much

better form

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

than last year.
Dogging the Dauphine appears to have paid off. Just watch the race

unfold.

Quoted message said:

What I meant is that LANCE still needs to ride aggressively in the
mountains. If he doesn't pick up additional time there he is vulnerable.
And I appear to be the only one to think that his gaining time there is
not a given. But I don't think it's a given.

Let me put it this way. How much time in total did LANCE gain on Ullrich
in the two TTs last year?

Quoted message said:

> If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more than

capable

Quoted message said:

> of riding away from the great climbers. Pantani won nothing that year
> until he had gotten his butt kicked often enough that Jan didn't have
> to watch him that closely.
Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my grandmother had

wheels,

Quoted message said:

she'd be a wagon.
Jan has shown us very little, except for his cheap words about no

longer

Quoted message said:

wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF again.
I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The old

days

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

of riding into form are over.

And what exactly are you expecting to be shown by this stage of the
Tour?

What is different for Ullrich this year is that his run in to the Tour
has
been incident free. No knee problems. His tendency to gain weight has
been
addressed. No imploding sponsor.

When was the last time his Tour prep looked like that?

When was the last time he had a decent result in one of the HC stage
races
leading into the Tour?

What happened in the Tour that year?

He's got a stronger team. His self-destructive tendencies appear to be
curbed. As you say, just watch the race unfold.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

Apparently, with the rain it was probably a better idea for Tmobile not
to
go all out just yet, but I hope he hasn't lost too much time. Same thing
in
the prologue. One of his teammates crashed and Ullrich was told not to
take
risks with the slippery pavement and the curves.

I just wish LA would go away! It'snot just that he's won, but everything
is
a lance-fest, even the coverage. ANd the interviews with his girlfriend
and
the Lance Chronicles. Why bother, the whole network is the lance
chronicles.
Not hard to forget who is sponsoring his team, that's for sure. THe tour
has
become the same thing every year it seems, and the coverage is making it
worse! I wish we got Eurosport or France 2. Maybe it's dopey bu I keep
thinking, accch...another predictable tour. At least the Giro, you never
know who's going to win, that's why it's s much more fun!

However, I was also curious so I went back and looked at the results of
the
1996 tour, when Indurain was going for 6. He and Riis were only a second
apart, right up until they got into the alps,which was stage 7, and that
was
when poor Indurain had such a terrible time. Of course, the gap here is
somewhat bigger, but Riis was very patient and didn't take all kinds of
risks right off- he was very cool and waited until he saw the signs of
weakness. I don't think it was just bonking, I think it was the pressure
that got to him.

But Indurain was overweight and out of shape (relatively speaking -- he'd
still kick my butt). Lance isn't (or doesn't seem to be).

--
Bob in CT
Remove ".x" to reply

The fat lady is not even in the country yet...

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in message
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy. Maybe it will be
harder to pull off than it looks at the moment.

Agreed. Though I am rooting for LA (not "routing" as suggested in
another thread), this TDF is far from over. Mayo, being as far down
as he is at the moment, will likely take some huge chances in the
mountains. Hamilton and Ullrich have shown good form thus far as well
(though their teams are not as strong as Postal) so my bet is that it
will still be a very interesting race yet....

Mike C

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

The fat lady is not even in the country yet...

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in message
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let anyone of
significance completely ride away from Lance in the flats? And will Lance
let anyone of signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy. Maybe it will be
harder to pull off than it looks at the moment.

Quoted message said:

This Tour will be close. My wife wants to spend Saturday the 24th in
Geneva. I have informed her that there is a distinct possibility that
I will have to bail and go to Besancon to see history be made.

I just checked the SNCF website; getting to Besancon doesn't look to be a
problem, but leaving does. You might have to do some very creative routing
to get out of town if you want to leave after the final rider finishes.

On the other hand, there are earlier options (such as a train leaving around
16:40 if I recall correctly) that would allow you to see the last rider
leave, but you wouldn't be able to see him finish.

Cost is about 60 euros, and the tickets are refundable. If you're seriously
entertaining the possibility of seeing the final TT, I'd order up tickets
quickly. My experience in Macon two years ago was that *nothing* will be
available as you near the date of the race.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Bob Schwartz said:

Kyle Legate said:

Brian P said:

I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The
old days of riding into form are over.

How else is a rider going to do it? A couple of needle [censored] a week
alone isn't enough.

Oh I think it is very clear that the days of racing into shape are long
gone. I best technique seems to be *not* racing into shape. That is,
you spend some time away from the dope tests so that you can do the
sort of super- intensive training that the needle [censored] allow you to
do. Give yourself some time for things to clear from your system and
you're good to go.
Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

I can not do anything else but agree

*Lemond* *Dekker after dispension* *Ulrich after kneeproblems*
etc. etc. etc.

Yeah I imply Lance is taking.... but to be just as fair, so are the
others, so I do not care *shrug*

--