Ullrich at TdS

Robert Chung said:

GC position after each stage:

stage 1: 44
stage 2: 44
stage 3: 29
stage 4: 26
stage 5: 7
stage 6: 3

His climbing speed today, from the last sprint (km 190.0, 1418m, if
tds.ch can be trusted) to the summit of the Albulapass (km 202.4, 2315m):
- Distance: 12.4 km
- Altitude gain: 897 m
- Average grade: 7.2%
- Time: 35'38"
- Speed: 20.9 km/h
- VAM: 1511 m/s
- Rough average power: 410 W (5.5 W/Kg)

Jenko

"Jenko" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Robert Chung said:

GC position after each stage:

stage 1: 44
stage 2: 44
stage 3: 29
stage 4: 26
stage 5: 7
stage 6: 3

His climbing speed today, from the last sprint (km 190.0, 1418m, if
tds.ch can be trusted) to the summit of the Albulapass (km 202.4, 2315m):
- Distance: 12.4 km
- Altitude gain: 897 m
- Average grade: 7.2%
- Time: 35'38"
- Speed: 20.9 km/h
- VAM: 1511 m/s
- Rough average power: 410 W (5.5 W/Kg)

I think Ullrich should take the Tour with Sunday's time trial.

On Thu, 15 Jun 2006 18:32:01 +0200, Jenko <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Robert Chung said:

GC position after each stage:

stage 1: 44
stage 2: 44
stage 3: 29
stage 4: 26
stage 5: 7
stage 6: 3

His climbing speed today, from the last sprint (km 190.0, 1418m, if
tds.ch can be trusted) to the summit of the Albulapass (km 202.4, 2315m):
- Distance: 12.4 km
- Altitude gain: 897 m
- Average grade: 7.2%
- Time: 35'38"
- Speed: 20.9 km/h
- VAM: 1511 m/s
- Rough average power: 410 W (5.5 W/Kg)

Interesting stats, that looks pretty good, how does it compare to TdF
climbs of the past years, if you have that handy ? How do you get the
410W ?

He certainly looked good on his bike yesterday, event though he has
these rather uncosmetic muscles now, wasn't the case in 1997 or even
in 2003, getting old I guess...

"Keith" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

On Thu, 15 Jun 2006 18:32:01 +0200, Jenko <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Robert Chung said:

GC position after each stage:

stage 1: 44
stage 2: 44
stage 3: 29
stage 4: 26
stage 5: 7
stage 6: 3

His climbing speed today, from the last sprint (km 190.0, 1418m, if
tds.ch can be trusted) to the summit of the Albulapass (km 202.4, 2315m):
- Distance: 12.4 km
- Altitude gain: 897 m
- Average grade: 7.2%
- Time: 35'38"
- Speed: 20.9 km/h
- VAM: 1511 m/s
- Rough average power: 410 W (5.5 W/Kg)

Interesting stats, that looks pretty good, how does it compare to TdF
climbs of the past years, if you have that handy ? How do you get the
410W ?

He certainly looked good on his bike yesterday, event though he has
these rather uncosmetic muscles now, wasn't the case in 1997 or even
in 2003, getting old I guess...

He won't win with that wattage and W/Kg. He might no even make the podium.
Take a look at Coyle's book about Armstrong. Lots of that type of info
there.

Robert Chung said:

GC position after each stage:

stage 1: 44
stage 2: 44
stage 3: 29
stage 4: 26
stage 5: 7
stage 6: 3

Year TdS TdF
1997 1 1
1998 10 2
1999 DNF DNS
2000 5 2
2001 DNS 2
2002 DNS DNS
2003 7 2
2004 1 4
2005 3 3

Bob Schwartz

Bob Schwartz said:

Year TdS TdF
1997 1 1
1998 10 2
1999 DNF DNS
2000 5 2
2001 DNS 2
2002 DNS DNS
2003 7 2
2004 1 4
2005 3 3

If we dismiss the obvious outliers, the underlying pattern becomes
much clearer:

1997 1 1
2002 DNS DNS
2005 3 3

--
E. Dronkert

Ewoud Dronkert said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Year TdS TdF
1997 1 1
1998 10 2
1999 DNF DNS
2000 5 2
2001 DNS 2
2002 DNS DNS
2003 7 2
2004 1 4
2005 3 3

If we dismiss the obvious outliers, the underlying pattern becomes
much clearer:

1997 1 1
2002 DNS DNS
2005 3 3

did you try an LDA on the data yet ? :-)

Ewoud Dronkert said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Year TdS TdF
1997 1 1
1998 10 2
1999 DNF DNS
2000 5 2
2001 DNS 2
2002 DNS DNS
2003 7 2
2004 1 4
2005 3 3

If we dismiss the obvious outliers, the underlying pattern becomes
much clearer:

1997 1 1
2002 DNS DNS
2005 3 3

The obvious outlier is 2004. That's the only time his place in the TdF was
lower than his place in the TdS. He does better in July than in June.

So, what's your guess for his place after tomorrow's TT?

Ullrich is becoming more impressive all the time. Ullrich seems to be
riding a defensive TDS. So far we have not seen any major attacks from
him. Age has a lot to do with this, but does bode well for his TDF
chances. It's unclear at this point if Ullrich will be strong enough to
fend off a lot of attacks.

Tom Kunich said:

"Jenko" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Robert Chung said:

GC position after each stage:

stage 1: 44
stage 2: 44
stage 3: 29
stage 4: 26
stage 5: 7
stage 6: 3

His climbing speed today, from the last sprint (km 190.0, 1418m, if
tds.ch can be trusted) to the summit of the Albulapass (km 202.4, 2315m):
- Distance: 12.4 km
- Altitude gain: 897 m
- Average grade: 7.2%
- Time: 35'38"
- Speed: 20.9 km/h
- VAM: 1511 m/s
- Rough average power: 410 W (5.5 W/Kg)

I think Ullrich should take the Tour with Sunday's time trial.

In article <[email hidden]>, "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Ewoud Dronkert said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Year TdS TdF
1997 1 1
1998 10 2
1999 DNF DNS
2000 5 2
2001 DNS 2
2002 DNS DNS
2003 7 2
2004 1 4
2005 3 3

If we dismiss the obvious outliers, the underlying pattern becomes
much clearer:

1997 1 1
2002 DNS DNS
2005 3 3

The obvious outlier is 2004. That's the only time his place in the TdF was
lower than his place in the TdS. He does better in July than in June.

So, what's your guess for his place after tomorrow's TT?

Well, he's only 20 seconds behind Jasksche and it's a 30km TT. Jaksche is a good
TTer but I don't think he can hold off Jan over that distance (for example, he lost
1.02.9 to him in a 30km TT in the 2005 Tour of Deutschland). I think they'll both
move past Koldo Gil. So I'd say it's Ullrich for the overall.

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

Howard Kveck said:

Well, he's only 20 seconds behind Jasksche and it's a 30km TT. Jaksche is a good
TTer but I don't think he can hold off Jan over that distance (for example, he lost
1.02.9 to him in a 30km TT in the 2005 Tour of Deutschland). I think they'll both
move past Koldo Gil. So I'd say it's Ullrich for the overall.

Gil needs a very good ride and he's only "very motivated", not "super
super moticated".

Robert Chung schreef:

Quoted message said:

Ewoud Dronkert said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Year TdS TdF
1997 1 1
1998 10 2
1999 DNF DNS
2000 5 2
2001 DNS 2
2002 DNS DNS
2003 7 2
2004 1 4
2005 3 3

The obvious outlier is 2004. That's the only time his place in the TdF was
lower than his place in the TdS.

I thought about that but wasn't sure 1999 would hold up to scrutiny. So
I went for the joke.

Quoted message said:

So, what's your guess for his place after tomorrow's TT?

2nd. I hear the TT's quite hilly, I think Jaksche will be able to keep
up, there.

--
E. Dronkert

Ewoud Dronkert said:

2nd. I hear the TT's quite hilly, I think Jaksche will be able to keep
up, there.

I think Jan will take the TT and the overall, rather easily.
Looks like preparation for the last week of the Tour.

Stu Fleming said:

Gil needs a very good ride and he's only "very motivated", not "super
super moticated".

If you want to get super moticated you need to spend more time motor
pacing.

Quoted message said:

I think Jaksche will be able to keep up

Hmm.

--
E. Dronkert

Ewoud Dronkert said:

Quoted message said:

I think Jaksche will be able to keep up

Hmm.

That was impressively apocalyptic :-)

The Jan is being back.

Jeff

Bob Schwartz said:

Year TdS TdF
1997 1 1

Agnolutto won TdS in 1997. Ullrich was third.

Jeff

Jeff Jones said:

The Jan is being back.

lol, is that related to this?
http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/2006/jun06/suisse06/index.php?id=/photos/2006/jun06/suisse06/suisse067/34

(i was going to comment on it when i saw it yesterday, but decided to
just giggle to myself, and i haven't read all the posts on rbr yet today..)

gil literally crumpled at the finish line today 🙁 so in a way i wish
jan wasn't being back quite sooOO strong.

h

Jeff Jones said:

The Jan is being back.

The Jan too early is peaking?