Ullrich 25 seconds back

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial, with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get realistic about things.

OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.

But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.

Michael said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year
was it, 2001? where several riders had a 35 minute gap on
the peleton and were just allowed to get away? Resulted in
Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon wearing the Maillot
Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped it off
Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8
mile time trial, with light mist in certain areas and some
sharp turns.

It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about
where he's going to pick that back up because he knows he
may lose a few more seconds in the TTT.

The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not
how Ullrich wanted to start.

M.

Daremo said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8
mile time trial, with light mist in certain areas and some
sharp turns.

People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue,
need to get realistic about things.

OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would
be important.

But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is
going to do it with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents,
not seconds like last year.

As I've said before, that's time Jan has to make up. He'd be
much better off if it were 2 or 3 seconds. This cushion is
like money in the bank to Lance, as last year there was a
crash that held him up and something like that happening
again would be harrowing if he didn't have that time. It's
nice to have, it's a drag if you have to make it up and then
pile more time into your opponenet, where you'd like to be
more even.

Quoted message said:

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year
was it, 2001? where several riders had a 35 minute gap on
the peleton and were just allowed to get away? Resulted in
Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon wearing the Maillot
Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped it off
Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was
there; we had a dinner that night with one of the team
support guys. They were most definitely not comfortable with
what had gone on; in hindsight they regarded it as a serious
tactical error. The problem is that sometimes, not too often
but sometimes, the jersey makes the man. I believe there was
some (although slight) fear that Simon might ride better
than he was capable of; O'Grady wasn't considered such a big
issue by the team, if I recall correctly. However, in
looking at my notes, it appears that we (spectators/those
who don't know any better) were more concerned about
O'Grady, because he was someone we knew something about.

Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8
mile time trial, with light mist in certain areas and some
sharp turns.

People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue,
need to get realistic about things.

OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would
be important.

But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is
going to do it with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents,
not seconds like last year.

Agreed. How silly to say that this is a big deal for Jan. It
is nothing and the race is young to say the least.

Curt

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What
year was it, 2001? where several riders had a 35 minute
gap on the peleton and were just allowed to get away?
Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon wearing
the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally
ripped it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was
there; we had

a

Quoted message said:

dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They
were most definitely not comfortable with what had gone
on; in hindsight they

regarded

Quoted message said:

it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that
sometimes, not too often but sometimes, the jersey makes
the man. I believe there was some (although slight) fear
that Simon might ride better than he was capable

of;

Quoted message said:

O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if
I recall correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it
appears that we (spectators/those who don't know any
better) were more concerned about O'Grady, because he was
someone we knew something about.

Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

You didn't mention the late Kivelev. Wasn't he in that
huge break and wasn't he the last one to yield his
advantage? I'm asking 'cuz I don't exactly recall. I seem
to recall him being a threat well into the race ... longer
even than Simon.

Bob C.

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put
pressure on Jan. He will have to make a move and Armstrong
can just recline on his bike and draft all the way up the
climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all over now.
Sucks that it's over so soon.

"Richard Adams" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Michael said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year
was it, 2001? where several riders had a 35 minute gap on
the peleton and were just allowed to get away? Resulted in
Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon wearing the Maillot
Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped it off
Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8
mile time trial, with light mist in certain areas and
some sharp turns.

It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about
where he's going

to

Quoted message said:

pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few more
seconds in the TTT.

The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not
how Ullrich

wanted

Quoted message said:

to start.

M.

Actually, it is precisely how he wants to start. I am sure
he wishes Lance approached it the same way...Jan claims he
put safety at the top of his priority list. Ullrich has not
had a lot of bad falls in his career but he did lose plenty
of racing after at least one tumble and this boy knows what
he is doing considering his record here at the Tour, having
never finished lower than second. Another point is that he
often lost to riders he beat in the prolog so he knows
precisely how important it is or isn't.

"fstrnu" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...

Quoted message said:

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put
pressure on Jan. He will have to make a move and Armstrong
can just recline on his bike and draft all the way up the
climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all over now.
Sucks that it's over so soon.

LOL. Look at how many times Ullrich has been beaten (by one
place on GC!!!) by riders he beat in the prolog. Maybe he
considers it a jinx to beat a favored rider. In 1998 when
Ullrich was defending his '97 win he was beaten by Pantani,
who was 181st out of 189 riders and 48 seconds back after
the prolog. Ullrich was 6th in the prolog that year and beat
everyone in the race but Pantani.

The prolog is an early indicator of form. Most agree that
this Tour will be won by the contender who hits form in the
third week. Both LA and Jan had said that they wanted to
arrive at this year's Tour a little under their peak. It
looks like Jan did just that and got through the prolog as
he expected.

Agreed. If anything, Jan can prove that he knows how to
lose. You can't predict Lance's future based on Jan's past.
If anything, this supports that he's washed up. It's over.
Don't murder the messenger. I'm happy he won, but would
have preferred at least some thrill beforehand. Bummed out,
for sure...

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"fstrnu" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...

Quoted message said:

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put
pressure on Jan.

He

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline
on his bike and draft all the way up the climbs. Short
of a crash by Armstrong, it's

all

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.

LOL. Look at how many times Ullrich has been beaten (by
one place on

GC!!!)

Quoted message said:

by riders he beat in the prolog. Maybe he considers it a
jinx to beat a favored rider. In 1998 when Ullrich was
defending his '97 win he was

beaten

Quoted message said:

by Pantani, who was 181st out of 189 riders and 48 seconds
back after the prolog. Ullrich was 6th in the prolog that
year and beat everyone in the race but Pantani.

The prolog is an early indicator of form. Most agree that
this Tour will

be

Quoted message said:

won by the contender who hits form in the third week. Both
LA and Jan had said that they wanted to arrive at this
year's Tour a little under their peak. It looks like Jan
did just that and got through the prolog as he expected.

Agreed. Jan knows exactly how to make 2nd! ROFL...

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message -"]news:[email hidden]-
kc.rr.com...

Quoted message said:

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in
message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8
mile time

trial,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about
where he's going

to

Quoted message said:

pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few
more seconds in the TTT.

The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is
not how Ullrich

wanted

Quoted message said:

to start.

M.

Actually, it is precisely how he wants to start. I am
sure he wishes Lance approached it the same way...Jan
claims he put safety at the top of his priority list.
Ullrich has not had a lot of bad falls in his career but
he did lose plenty of racing after at least one tumble
and this boy knows

what

Quoted message said:

he is doing considering his record here at the Tour,
having never finished lower than second. Another point is
that he often lost to riders he beat

in

Quoted message said:

the prolog so he knows precisely how important it is
or isn't.

Quoted message said:

Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin from
last year, and IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both LA and
Jan pretend otherwise, and, as Lance is fond of saying,
"anything can happen..."

I have no doubt that Lance sees "15 seconds" as something
more than symbolic. We've even seen him contest a few
sprints lately... there may be times those finishing bonuses
could be a very handy thing to have.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin
from last year, and IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both
LA and Jan pretend otherwise, and, as Lance is fond of
saying, "anything can happen..."

I have no doubt that Lance sees "15 seconds" as something
more than symbolic. We've even seen him contest a few
sprints lately... there may be times those finishing
bonuses could be a very handy thing to have.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

That's right. It's early and it's 25 seconds. But Ullrich
is going to have to wonder about how this race is going
to shape up.

Where else can he make it up? Historically, the only place
he has beaten Armstrong is in the TTs, and only once. Last
year, in the second TT, he took a minute from Armstrong, but
not in the final TT, and not in this Prologue TT. He'll look
to have a little better luck in a longer TT.

Team TT? No chance. He'll lose a little time.

The mountain stages? Of course, some time, Armstrong is
going to crack in the mountains. It may happen this year,
but his training shows that is highly unlikely. He's in
terrific shape and has enormous confidence. Ullrich has no
history of leaving Armstrong behind in the mountains.

Yes, it's way early, but for Ullrich, 25 seconds looms
large.

Mike

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

how the hell do you know how he wants to race? Dave

"fstrnu" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...

Quoted message said:

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put
pressure on Jan. He will have to make a move and Armstrong
can just recline on his bike and draft all the way up the
climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all over now.
Sucks that it's over so soon.

dude, go smoke some more crack Dave

If you know so much, why don't you call the poor
inexperienced Ullrich up and give him some tips?

Jan is doing just dandy.

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message -"]news:[email hidden]-
kc.rr.com...

Quoted message said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

Think I mentioned that in another post. Though it's good to
have 15 seconds, the next battleground will be the TTT.

fstrnu said:

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put
pressure on Jan. He will have to make a move and Armstrong
can just recline on his bike and draft all the way up the
climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all over now.
Sucks that it's over so soon.

"Richard Adams" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Michael said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year
was it, 2001? where several riders had a 35 minute gap on
the peleton and were just allowed to get away? Resulted in
Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon wearing the Maillot
Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped it off
Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

psycholist said:

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year
was it, 2001? where several riders had a 35 minute gap on
the peleton and were just allowed to get away? Resulted
in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon wearing the
Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally
ripped it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was
there; we had

a

Quoted message said:

dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They
were most definitely not comfortable with what had gone
on; in hindsight they

regarded

Quoted message said:

it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that
sometimes, not too often but sometimes, the jersey makes
the man. I believe there was some (although slight) fear
that Simon might ride better than he was capable

of;

Quoted message said:

O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if
I recall correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it
appears that we (spectators/those who don't know any
better) were more concerned about O'Grady, because he was
someone we knew something about.

Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

You didn't mention the late Kivelev. Wasn't he in that
huge break and wasn't he the last one to yield his
advantage? I'm asking 'cuz I don't exactly recall. I seem
to recall him being a threat well into the race ... longer
even than Simon.

Bob C.

Kivilev finished with a good placing, but it wasn't he who
relieved Simon of the Maillot Jaune. Dangerous to let a
ringer go like that, however.