Ullrich 25 seconds back

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
realistic about things.

OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.

But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.

--

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about where he's going to
pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few more seconds in
the TTT.

The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not how Ullrich wanted
to start.

M.

Michael said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

Daremo said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
realistic about things.

OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.

But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.

As I've said before, that's time Jan has to make up. He'd be much
better off if it were 2 or 3 seconds. This cushion is like money in the
bank to Lance, as last year there was a crash that held him up and
something like that happening again would be harrowing if he didn't have
that time. It's nice to have, it's a drag if you have to make it up and
then pile more time into your opponenet, where you'd like to be more even.

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
realistic about things.

OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.

But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.

Agreed. How silly to say that this is a big deal for Jan. It is nothing and
the race is young to say the least.

Curt

Quoted message said:

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was there; we had a
dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They were most
definitely not comfortable with what had gone on; in hindsight they regarded
it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that sometimes, not too
often but sometimes, the jersey makes the man. I believe there was some
(although slight) fear that Simon might ride better than he was capable of;
O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if I recall
correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it appears that we
(spectators/those who don't know any better) were more concerned about
O'Grady, because he was someone we knew something about.

Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was there; we had

a

Quoted message said:

dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They were most
definitely not comfortable with what had gone on; in hindsight they

regarded

Quoted message said:

it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that sometimes, not too
often but sometimes, the jersey makes the man. I believe there was some
(although slight) fear that Simon might ride better than he was capable

of;

Quoted message said:

O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if I recall
correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it appears that we
(spectators/those who don't know any better) were more concerned about
O'Grady, because he was someone we knew something about.

Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

You didn't mention the late Kivelev. Wasn't he in that huge break and
wasn't he the last one to yield his advantage? I'm asking 'cuz I don't
exactly recall. I seem to recall him being a threat well into the race ...
longer even than Simon.

Bob C.

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan. He
will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all
over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.

"Richard Adams" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Michael said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about where he's going

to

Quoted message said:

pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few more seconds in
the TTT.

The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not how Ullrich

wanted

Quoted message said:

to start.

M.

Actually, it is precisely how he wants to start. I am sure he wishes Lance
approached it the same way...Jan claims he put safety at the top of his
priority list. Ullrich has not had a lot of bad falls in his career but he
did lose plenty of racing after at least one tumble and this boy knows what
he is doing considering his record here at the Tour, having never finished
lower than second. Another point is that he often lost to riders he beat in
the prolog so he knows precisely how important it is or isn't.

"fstrnu" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...

Quoted message said:

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan. He
will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all
over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.

LOL. Look at how many times Ullrich has been beaten (by one place on GC!!!)
by riders he beat in the prolog. Maybe he considers it a jinx to beat a
favored rider. In 1998 when Ullrich was defending his '97 win he was beaten
by Pantani, who was 181st out of 189 riders and 48 seconds back after the
prolog. Ullrich was 6th in the prolog that year and beat everyone in the
race but Pantani.

The prolog is an early indicator of form. Most agree that this Tour will be
won by the contender who hits form in the third week. Both LA and Jan had
said that they wanted to arrive at this year's Tour a little under their
peak. It looks like Jan did just that and got through the prolog as he
expected.

Richard Adams said:

Daremo said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
realistic about things.

OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.

But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.

As I've said before, that's time Jan has to make up. He'd be much
better off if it were 2 or 3 seconds. This cushion is like money in the
bank to Lance, as last year there was a crash that held him up and
something like that happening again would be harrowing if he didn't have
that time. It's nice to have, it's a drag if you have to make it up and
then pile more time into your opponenet, where you'd like to be more even.

Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin from last year, and
IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both LA and Jan pretend otherwise, and, as
Lance is fond of saying, "anything can happen..." But I'm sure he is happy
to have banked the time. Plus, putting 15 s into Ullrich (and more into
the other contenders) is bound to have a demoralizing effect, even if
slight; this will counteract to some degree the blood-in-the-water
feeding tendencies that LA's seemingly weak performance last year might
have encouraged... Psychological warfare.

--AMG

Agreed. Jan knows exactly how to make 2nd! ROFL...

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time

trial,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about where he's going

to

Quoted message said:

pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few more seconds in
the TTT.

The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not how Ullrich

wanted

Quoted message said:

to start.

M.

Actually, it is precisely how he wants to start. I am sure he wishes Lance
approached it the same way...Jan claims he put safety at the top of his
priority list. Ullrich has not had a lot of bad falls in his career but he
did lose plenty of racing after at least one tumble and this boy knows

what

Quoted message said:

he is doing considering his record here at the Tour, having never finished
lower than second. Another point is that he often lost to riders he beat

in

Quoted message said:

the prolog so he knows precisely how important it is or isn't.

Agreed. If anything, Jan can prove that he knows how to lose. You can't
predict Lance's future based on Jan's past. If anything, this supports that
he's washed up. It's over. Don't murder the messenger. I'm happy he won,
but would have preferred at least some thrill beforehand. Bummed out, for
sure...

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"fstrnu" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...

Quoted message said:

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan.

He

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's

all

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.

LOL. Look at how many times Ullrich has been beaten (by one place on

GC!!!)

Quoted message said:

by riders he beat in the prolog. Maybe he considers it a jinx to beat a
favored rider. In 1998 when Ullrich was defending his '97 win he was

beaten

Quoted message said:

by Pantani, who was 181st out of 189 riders and 48 seconds back after the
prolog. Ullrich was 6th in the prolog that year and beat everyone in the
race but Pantani.

The prolog is an early indicator of form. Most agree that this Tour will

be

Quoted message said:

won by the contender who hits form in the third week. Both LA and Jan had
said that they wanted to arrive at this year's Tour a little under their
peak. It looks like Jan did just that and got through the prolog as he
expected.

Quoted message said:

Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin from last year, and
IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both LA and Jan pretend otherwise, and, as
Lance is fond of saying, "anything can happen..."

I have no doubt that Lance sees "15 seconds" as something more than
symbolic. We've even seen him contest a few sprints lately... there may be
times those finishing bonuses could be a very handy thing to have.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin from last year, and
IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both LA and Jan pretend otherwise, and, as
Lance is fond of saying, "anything can happen..."

I have no doubt that Lance sees "15 seconds" as something more than
symbolic. We've even seen him contest a few sprints lately... there may be
times those finishing bonuses could be a very handy thing to have.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

That's right. It's early and it's 25 seconds. But Ullrich is going to have to wonder
about how this race is going to shape up.

Where else can he make it up? Historically, the only place he has beaten
Armstrong is in the TTs, and only once. Last year, in the second TT, he
took a minute from Armstrong, but not in the final TT, and not in this
Prologue TT. He'll look to have a little better luck in a longer TT.

Team TT? No chance. He'll lose a little time.

The mountain stages? Of course, some time, Armstrong is going to crack
in the mountains. It may happen this year, but his training shows that is
highly unlikely. He's in terrific shape and has enormous confidence. Ullrich
has no history of leaving Armstrong behind in the mountains.

Yes, it's way early, but for Ullrich, 25 seconds looms large.

Mike

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike

how the hell do you know how he wants to race?
Dave

"fstrnu" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...

Quoted message said:

You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan. He
will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all
over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.

dude, go smoke some more crack
Dave

psycholist said:

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was there; we had

a

Quoted message said:

dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They were most
definitely not comfortable with what had gone on; in hindsight they

regarded

Quoted message said:

it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that sometimes, not too
often but sometimes, the jersey makes the man. I believe there was some
(although slight) fear that Simon might ride better than he was capable

of;

Quoted message said:

O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if I recall
correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it appears that we
(spectators/those who don't know any better) were more concerned about
O'Grady, because he was someone we knew something about.

Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

You didn't mention the late Kivelev. Wasn't he in that huge break and
wasn't he the last one to yield his advantage? I'm asking 'cuz I don't
exactly recall. I seem to recall him being a threat well into the race ...
longer even than Simon.

Bob C.

Kivilev finished with a good placing, but it wasn't he who relieved
Simon of the Maillot Jaune. Dangerous to let a ringer go like that,
however.

If you know so much, why don't you call the poor inexperienced Ullrich up
and give him some tips?

Jan is doing just dandy.

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

That's not the way he wants to start this race.

Mike