Kloden is less than a minute behind Piti and more than 1.5 min in front of Vino. And he's the better TTist IMHO. His chances depend on Astana's team orders. Contador is in a somewhat similar position (wrt. Leipheimer) although I think the Disco team is more sensible.
I wouldn't discount Piti and Evans yet. They should've tried to put more time into Kloden. They messed that up but they're both in a comfortable position otherwise.
1) Kloden (unless his injury is worse than I think, or he has to sacrifice himself for Vino) 2) Contador 3) Evans 4) Piti
Not much being heard of Menchov these days but i also think he might just be looking stronger than most people expect. He's definately in good position at the moment and has a more than decent ITT. He wont loose much time anywhere and might be able to grab a bit in the pyrenees. Downside is that he has not got a very heroic style of riding and he usually gets his decent final standings in absolute anonymousity.
That being said I got my fingers crossed for another good day by the Chicken tomorrow. The second HC is one hell of a climb and I am hoping for a battlefield there. There might be 40 kM of decent before the finnish but if the field really cracks then it remains to be seen how much time can be made up there.
Heard quite a few coments in the style of "but they wont allow the chicken to escape tomorrow" on the site but on the second HC of tomorrow i dont think there will be much allowing of anyone to anyone. It steep with averaging 6,8 % and if he climbs like he did last Sunday he'll ride everyone to bits there. I also doubt he'll loose as much time on the first ITT as is expected. The first ITT is quite hilly and i dont expect him to loose too much actually. The second ITT he'll get roasted of course..
I am having faith in Rabo this tour. If the Chicken comes through the next two days in the way i hope he will I see him as a favourite. If he doesnt I ll put my cards on Menchov. But between the two the Chicken is so incredibly much more fun to watch and cheer for that i really hope he can at least keep the tention strong untill the second ITT.
There is still so much time to be exchanged with two TTs and the grueling pyrenees. Vino will pull a Landis on one of the stages and win by 6 minutes. (Without the testosterone plaster.) Also, people are discounting Vino's TT'ing but I think it was dauphine where he won recently.
I picked Menchov as a darkhorse in my fantasy pool, but as of right now, he's got a free ride. Everyone has to attack Rasmussen. In doing so, they will surely drag Menchov in with them. All he needs is to sit and wait. He has a decent TT. He can climb. So long as he doesn't have a bad day I think he can quietly knock people off the podium. He's got decent help also in Boogerd and Thomas Dekker.
Well, at least we have an interesting and unpredictable TdF.
My heart says Kloden but I feel a few more days pulling Vino to the line like Stage 8 will doom his chances.
I'd like to see some fireworks courtesy of the Chicken tomorrow. Let's see if he can blow the races up and have some of the GC contenders panic in response.
So based on this highly scientific sampling the winner will be one of
Vino Kloden Valverde or Menchov
With Rasmussen as a slight possibility
Not much different I suppose from predicitons we might have made before the prologue, except Leipiheimer has gone completely unmentioned and Vino is not such a hot favourite. Sastre not mentioned either.
