On Tue, 30 Dec 2003 08:27:22 +0000, Zog The Undeniable <[email hidden]>
wrote:
Emailed Damian Green, copy to my MP (Jane Griffiths):
<http://chapmancentral.demon.co.uk/Web/public.nsf/Documents/Damian_Green>
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You said: "The whole debate about speed cameras needs to be based on facts rather than emotion."
I am delighted to hear it.
Fact: the probability of fatality in a crash increases with the fourth power of speed (Joksch).
Fact: the probability of crashing increases with speed (Taylor, Lynam and Baruya; Solomon; West and
Dunn; Cirillo etc.).
Fact: drivers with speeding convictions are more likely to crash (Lynn and Lockwood; Broughton,
Baughan, Pearce, Smith and Buckle).
Fact: speed is a major causative factor in a third of all crashes, and is a prime determinant in the
severity of outcome of any crash (TRL, various authors).
Fact: most drivers overestimate their own level of skill (Lex Automotive Group)
Fact: the risk of fatal injury is currently increasing on those roads least likely to have cameras,
a reversal of previous trends (DfT).
Fact: there is no financial link between the bodies which set speed limits and (non-profit) safety
camera partnerships which manage cameras (PACTS).
Fact: Most people in the UK support speed cameras (MORI).
Fact: exceeding the speed limit is illegal, and has been since before most drivers started
driving (DfT).
Some years ago I decided to stop speeding. Since then I have found that I notice hazards which I
never did before, I rarely have to brake, and I have had very few close calls. The difference to my
journey times is trivially small, the difference to my stress levels is anything but. In debating
this issue I have been told with great confidence that driving at 10mph over the limit is "perfectly
safe" - you will be aware that this commonly-held view is a pernicious falsehood, that any moving
vehicle poses some risk, and that this risk increases with speed.
Fines are no deterrent. Automatic bans dramatically reduced the incidence of drink-driving, where
fines had not. The fact that drivers are complaining about cameras is clear evidence that they work,
that points work, and that speeding drivers are being deterred. There is no down side. Your licence
is at no risk if you drive within the law.
Restricting cameras to areas with "many pedestrians" misses the point. Many drivers speed where they
consider the risk of encountering a pedestrian to be small, for example on rural A roads. Such roads
(which rarely have footways) may be used by horse riders, cyclists and pedestrians.
The speed limit is part of the social contract, it's society's way of telling drivers the maximum
level of risk which we are prepared to tolerate on a certain piece of road, because all the benefit
of speeding accrues to the driver while much of the danger falls on others. Supporting
"speedophiles" in their campaigns against cameras sends a clear message that speeding is perfectly
acceptable, and that the roads of the UK may be legitimately treated as a personal racetrack. It
validates the speeders' feeling that what they are doing is not really wrong and that their
transient personal convenience is the only thing that matters.
A Transport Minister in the 1950s wisely said that "[crashes] are caused not by the taking of large
risks, but by the taking of small risks very large numbers of times." I would suggest that if you
are serious about road safety, and I have no reason to doubt that you are, you would be far better
advised to tackle the culture of impatience and aggression which leads to speeding, rather than
pursue a policy which seems designed to minimise the impression of risk posed by speeding, and which
therefore is likely to increase that very risk through risk compensation.
Guy Chapman
Guy
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May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
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