the good oil ????????????

DJ said:

Well this will have a drain on the folks who insist on driving around the
city in urban bush bashers...or is that urban bike bashers???????

http://au.news.yahoo.com/040726/2/q2hd.html

I think the days of cheap fuel is gone.........but what are folks to do when
public transport is not being able to meet demands, a 10% rise in patronage
will see the bus & train systems burst at the seems(in Sydney i'm refering
to), so it's either drive or pedal or walk.
Prices of everything will go up astronomically due to transport companies
needing to cover diesel costs.
Anyway, something to look forward to........possibly more people will see
the value of the bicycle a lot clearer in time to come and that they are not
just toys as some would think.

Regards

DJ

Generally speaking, people are not very sensitive to changes in petrol prices - one reason is the inconvenience of the alternatives, another is that fuel is actually one of the smallest costs of owning a car (interest and depreciation are the biggest components by far)

I hope that higher petrol prices induce people to use alternatives, but I'm not too optimistic... More effective tools for getting people out of cars are more traffic congestion and better public transport - oh, and bike paths and marked bike lanes.

Ritch

Quoted message said:

Generally speaking, people are not very sensitive to changes in petrol
prices - one reason is the inconvenience of the alternatives, another
is that fuel is actually one of the smallest costs of owning a car
(interest and depreciation are the biggest components by far)

I hope that higher petrol prices induce people to use alternatives, but
I'm not too optimistic... More effective tools for getting people out of
cars are more traffic congestion and better public transport - oh, and
bike paths and marked bike lanes.

Ritch

--
ritcho

I think people are more petrol price sensetive than you think Ritcho, if you
see on any given day 2 petrol stations, one selling it 1cent cheaper than
the other, guess who sells the most fuel!!

I think if petrol does go up to $3 a litre then i think there'll be a lot of
SS utes for sale hehehe (waiting waiting) J/K
I really think people will closely valuate the types of vehicles they would
drive and possibly see more of the hybrid type vehicles (petrol/electric)
like the Toyota Prius become more readily available.
I think too that you might find people will try to move closer to facilities
rather than on the outskirts so they may not have to worry of a motor
vehicle and could possibly cycle it instead, hence more reason to push for
better city cycling facilities in either the city or busier metro
suburbs.....the arrow is definately pointing towards the time when we as
people have to have a major rethink on the methods we use for travel,
commuting, and day to day getting around.

A major surge in sales of those little motor scooters have increased tenfold
and about 85% of the buyers are women looking for cheaper means of
transport...I guess there may be other reasons too but i haven't heard any
yet!!

DJ

DJ said:

Quoted message said:

Generally speaking, people are not very sensitive to changes in petrol
prices - one reason is the inconvenience of the alternatives, another
is that fuel is actually one of the smallest costs of owning a car
(interest and depreciation are the biggest components by far)

I hope that higher petrol prices induce people to use alternatives, but
I'm not too optimistic... More effective tools for getting people out of
cars are more traffic congestion and better public transport - oh, and
bike paths and marked bike lanes.

Ritch

--
ritcho

I think people are more petrol price sensetive than you think Ritcho, if you
see on any given day 2 petrol stations, one selling it 1cent cheaper than
the other, guess who sells the most fuel!!

I think if petrol does go up to $3 a litre then i think there'll be a lot of
SS utes for sale hehehe (waiting waiting) J/K
I really think people will closely valuate the types of vehicles they would
drive and possibly see more of the hybrid type vehicles (petrol/electric)
like the Toyota Prius become more readily available.
I think too that you might find people will try to move closer to facilities
rather than on the outskirts so they may not have to worry of a motor
vehicle and could possibly cycle it instead, hence more reason to push for
better city cycling facilities in either the city or busier metro
suburbs.....the arrow is definately pointing towards the time when we as
people have to have a major rethink on the methods we use for travel,
commuting, and day to day getting around.

A major surge in sales of those little motor scooters have increased tenfold
and about 85% of the buyers are women looking for cheaper means of
transport...I guess there may be other reasons too but i haven't heard any
yet!!

DJ

1c cheaper at one petrol station might encourage you to fill up at the cheaper station, but it doesn't make you buy much more than you otherwise would. The fact that people are only thinking about alternatives to petrol when the price _triples_ is evidence that people are not price sensitive.

Those little motor scooters are neat, but I doubt that petrol costs are high on the list of reasons. If you're a Sydney commuter, parking and the ability to get through traffic jams is the big seller.

ritcho said:

1c cheaper at one petrol station might encourage you to fill up at the cheaper station, but it doesn't make you buy much more than you otherwise would. The fact that people are only thinking about alternatives to petrol when the price _triples_ is evidence that people are not price sensitive.

Those little motor scooters are neat, but I doubt that petrol costs are high on the list of reasons. If you're a Sydney commuter, parking and the ability to get through traffic jams is the big seller.

when Bush Snr invaded Iraq the bike usage at work went from about 20-25 to about 100!!! That was a direct affect of the petrol jumping to about a dollar a litre, and that was 14 years ago. Everytime there is a significant price hike the numbers jump temporarily. some keep riding and stay riding.
"War. what is it good for?"
(shallow response. cycling :-) )

flyingdutch said:

when Bush Snr invaded Iraq the bike usage at work went from about 20-25 to about 100!!! That was a direct affect of the petrol jumping to about a dollar a litre, and that was 14 years ago. Everytime there is a significant price hike the numbers jump temporarily. some keep riding and stay riding.
"War. what is it good for?"
(shallow response. cycling :-) )

Crude oil increased from ~$15/bbl to ~$40/bbl in less than four months. It then subsided faster than it rose, hence many temporary cyclists went back to their cars. By contrast, crude oil has remained in a range $20-$35 for most of the past four years. The recent increase from around $30 to $45 has taken the best part of a year: a smaller relative increase spread out over a longer time period.

The 1970s oil shocks were _much_ larger in magnitude and hence had a much bigger effect on people's lives.

Don't get me wrong... I'm not saying that higher petrol prices will have no effect, just that it takes a big move in order to get an effect on people's choice of transport. I have no doubt that many things would change if petrol hit $3/litre, but now you're talking $100+/bbl oil: a very big move.

The less cars the better, suits me!

Ritch

ritcho wrote:

....snip.....

Quoted message said:

Generally speaking, people are not very sensitive to changes in petrol
prices - one reason is the inconvenience of the alternatives,

What alternatives?
At least in Melbourne, you have a decent public transport system that
seems to allow you to cover the full city.

Sydney now has may-be trains; may-be the train will come to day, may-be
tomorrow.

"Terry Collins" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

ritcho wrote:

...snip.....

Quoted message said:

Generally speaking, people are not very sensitive to changes in petrol
prices - one reason is the inconvenience of the alternatives,

What alternatives?
At least in Melbourne, you have a decent public transport system that
seems to allow you to cover the full city.

Sydney now has may-be trains; may-be the train will come to day, may-be
tomorrow.

Or may-be next week.....uuumm unless it's cancelled!!

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

>> "DJ" == DJ <[email hidden]> writes:

DJ> Well this will have a drain on the folks who insist on driving
DJ> around the city in urban bush bashers...or is that urban bike
DJ> bashers???????

Don't bet on it. In the UK petrol as a proportion of income is probably
about five times what it is here. When I left 18 months ago it was
about one pound eighty a litre.

So you'd expect lots of cyclists and everyone living close to their place
of employment right? Unfortunately not. Most people I knew had an
hours drive each morning to get to work and I was no exception. Cycling
was for kids, the ``unfortunates'' who's mothers didn't wrap them in
cotton wool and ferry them from door to door in the armored vehicles
they call cars.

Face it, generally people are lazy. The thought of actually having to
exert oneself to get from A to B is anathema to most people. Most
people will wear the cost for the ``convenience'' of driving. At work I
was met with looks of disbelief when I defined a house in cycling distance
of work as something within 30 km.

The cars will probably get smaller, the average engine size in the UK is
probably 1.6 ltrs, 1.4 is very common and there's quite a market in 1
ltr cars. 2.0 ltr cars are big and 3 ltr cars are huge. Upwards of 3
and you're talking prestige motors.

It's going to take more than an increase in fuel to encourage people out
of their cars and on to their bikes I fear.
--
Regards
Euan

"flyingdutch" <[email hidden]> wrote
in message news:[email hidden]

[...]

Quoted message said:

when Bush Snr invaded Iraq

Bush Snr did not invade Iraq. He was subsequently criticised for it by
some.

--

A: Top-posters.
Q: What is the most annoying thing on Usenet?

DRS said:

Bush Snr did not invade Iraq. He was subsequently criticised for it by
some.

doooh! My bad (as you say)

how memory gets distorted with time.

Greetings,
As one American (appropriately enough) said, people will
take notice of the fuel shortage when petrol costs $10 a litre and you
have to wait in line for three hours for the 10 litres your ration card
gives you. I'm not holding my breath.
Regards,
Ray.

DJ said:

Well this will have a drain on the folks who insist on driving around the
city in urban bush bashers...or is that urban bike bashers???????

http://au.news.yahoo.com/040726/2/q2hd.html

I think the days of cheap fuel is gone.........but what are folks to do when
public transport is not being able to meet demands, a 10% rise in patronage
will see the bus & train systems burst at the seems(in Sydney i'm refering
to), so it's either drive or pedal or walk.
Prices of everything will go up astronomically due to transport companies
needing to cover diesel costs.
Anyway, something to look forward to........possibly more people will see
the value of the bicycle a lot clearer in time to come and that they are not
just toys as some would think.

Regards

DJ

Well if you're in Melbourne and have Thursday evening clear, see fwd'ed message below;

Concerned about oil depletion and sustainable transport?

You are invited to two important opportunities to learn more and discuss these issues.

Both sessions will be held at the Green Building, 60 Leicester Street, Carlton

1. Thursday 12 August

International perspectives on Oil Vulnerability

Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari National Iranian Oil Company

and Dr Bruce Robinson, Sustainable Transport Coalition Western Australia

6.15 pm for 6.30 pm, 12 August 2004,

RSVP appreciated [email hidden] or 9347 2233

Dr Ali Samsam Bahktiari is a widely respected observer of the global oil and gas industry, with over 30 years experience at the National Iranian Oil Company. At the recent Peak Oil Conference in Berlin, Dr Bakhtiari outlined his reasons for believing that Saudi Arabia is probably close to its maximum production of oil at the present time and that the requests by world leaders for Saudi to "open the taps" and add 2 million barrels to the world's supply, thus reducing the price, might not be a long lasting solution. For further information, see www.samsambakhtiari.com.

Dr. Bakhtiari is in Australia courtesy of the Sustainable Transport Coalition in Western Australia. A one day visit to Melbourne allows us this opportunity to hear him. His talk has significant implications for Australia's energy future, and should be of great interest and relevance for anyone concerned with a sustainable future.

2. Tuesday 24 August 5pm to 7 pm
Victorian Local Governance Association and Environment Victoria invite you to a film screening

End of Suburbia

www.endofsuburbia.com

A thought provoking documentary which examines our current urban settlement patterns in the context of oil uncertainties and aims to inform the debate about sustainable growth.

Green Building (ground floor meeting room) 60 Leicester Street, Carlton

RSVP appreciated, [email hidden]
Donation of a gold coin is requested for entry

[email hidden] wrote in news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

Don't bet on it. In the UK petrol as a proportion of income is
probably about five times what it is here. When I left 18 months ago
it was about one pound eighty a litre.

Surely $1.80? It's about 86p per litre at the moment (about $2.20)
against a national average income of UKP25,000 [1]. Compare that to a
current Australian petrol price of about AU$1 and an national average
wage of about AU$50,000 [2]. So the difference *per litre* is a factor
of 1.7, not 5. That doesn't take into account distance driven (and
therefore fuel consumed) annually though and the UK does have a
relatively high average (compared to the rest of Europe at least) of
about 16,000km against the Australian average of 14,600km [3]. So that
takes the factor to about 1.9, still nowhere near the 5.

[censored], I've just re-read that, I didn't mean to sound quite such a
pedantic pillock :-/

Graeme

[1] See
<http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_labour/NES2003_UK/NES2003_U
K.pdf> or <http://tinyurl.com/5a54g>

[2] See
<http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/[email protected]/b06660592430724fca2568b5007b8619
/6de6b93557535756ca256e9900785a87!OpenDocument> or
<http://tinyurl.com/4b7wz>

[3] See
<http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/73f5696b10a8f71dca2569d0001643
94?OpenDocument&Click=> or <http://tinyurl.com/3vfnw> - admittedly this
is old data, but the relative values are likely to be similar.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

>> "graeme" == graeme <[email hidden]> writes:

graeme> [censored], I've just re-read that, I didn't mean to sound
graeme> quite such a pedantic pillock :-/

Heh heh, no worries :-) I'd rather get called on my errors than have
them accepted as fact.

You're probably right about the price of fuel, UK45.00 filled my tank of
diesel which weighed in at 60 ltrs so that makes sense. In fact you
are:

http://www.theaa.com/allaboutcars/fuel/

However you're falling in to the classic trap of doing the exchange rate
conversion. As a proportion of disposable income (and admittedly this
depends on how rich or poor you are) UK45 is a bigger chunk out the
pocket than $AU85 (that's going with the 1.9 conversion).
--
Regards
Euan

<[email hidden]> wrote in message news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

>>> "graeme" == graeme <[email hidden]> writes:

graeme> [censored], I've just re-read that, I didn't mean to sound
graeme> quite such a pedantic pillock :-/

Heh heh, no worries :-) I'd rather get called on my errors than have
them accepted as fact.

You're probably right about the price of fuel, UK45.00 filled my tank of
diesel which weighed in at 60 ltrs so that makes sense. In fact you
are:

http://www.theaa.com/allaboutcars/fuel/

However you're falling in to the classic trap of doing the exchange rate
conversion. As a proportion of disposable income (and admittedly this
depends on how rich or poor you are) UK45 is a bigger chunk out the
pocket than $AU85 (that's going with the 1.9 conversion).
--
Regards
Euan

It's great to see different opinions especially from O/seas..thanks fellas,
great to hear from you.
Today, I seen fuel (petrol) at 109.00 cents a litre in Sydney which
translates to approx A$4.97 a imp. gallon or A$4.30 US gallon. So therefore
it's just under A$5 a Gallon respectfully........to me that is a lot of
money for fuel and to think it could go as high as $3 a litre...bloody
nora!! that's A$13.68 a gallon of go go juice.
I think maybe people will in time have a major rethink about the next
vehicle they buy.....not everyone but if 20-40% do...it'd make a big
difference.

DJ