The day Mt. Hamilton almost blew away

Mike Jacoubowsky writes:

http://www.chainreaction.com/mtham06.htm

Quoted message said:

for stories from various participants in the annual New Year's Day
trek up Mt Hamilton near San Jose, California. We've had rain, snow,
gorgeous weather... you name it. But we've never had anything like
the wild winds we had this time. One guy said he was literally blown
off his bike three times (apparently I pack enough ballast that
wasn't an issue for me).

I suppose you heard about the bicyclist who was killed by a falling
eucalyptus in Los Altos Hills on a route that may bicyclists use. The
fallen tree in your pictures of Mt. Hamilton Road could have done the
same for more than one person. I have had as close an encounter with
a eucalyptus as I can imagine. It dropped a killer branch that hit
the pavement one second after I passed the spot in the steep dip in
Cloverdale Rd, near Gazos Creek.

I felt a lot safer fighting 100mph gusts riding up Lee Vining Canyon
where there are no trees to fall on my head. That was exciting riding
and an entirely east slope phenomenon. The rest of the ride to Sonora
had merely balmy breezes.

Jobst Brandt

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

for stories from various participants in the annual New Year's Day
trek up Mt Hamilton near San Jose, California. We've had rain, snow,
gorgeous weather... you name it. But we've never had anything like
the wild winds we had this time. One guy said he was literally blown
off his bike three times (apparently I pack enough ballast that
wasn't an issue for me).

I suppose you heard about the bicyclist who was killed by a falling
eucalyptus in Los Altos Hills on a route that may bicyclists use. The
fallen tree in your pictures of Mt. Hamilton Road could have done the
same for more than one person. I have had as close an encounter with
a eucalyptus as I can imagine. It dropped a killer branch that hit
the pavement one second after I passed the spot in the steep dip in
Cloverdale Rd, near Gazos Creek.

Yes, the guy who was killed was riding with someone I know fairly well.
Regarding the fallen tree, one still has to consider the odds when assessing
whether something is "safe" (or safe enough, perhaps I should say). Let's
look at Mt. Hamilton and let's say there's maybe 8 miles of road where trees
might be close enough to be an issue when they fall. And we'll postulate a
far more extreme weather event than we had... 20 trees downed on the road,
instead of the one that someone came across. Now toss in 50 cyclists, *far*
more than were on the road that day. And a deadly swath of 20 feet for each
tree, were someone unfortunate enough to be in that location when it fell.

Darn, this one has my head spinning. Not so easy to figure out as I though.
Anybody want to tackle this one?

Quoted message said:

I felt a lot safer fighting 100mph gusts riding up Lee Vining Canyon
where there are no trees to fall on my head. That was exciting riding
and an entirely east slope phenomenon. The rest of the ride to Sonora
had merely balmy breezes.

I had little fear of falling trees, but also suspect the gusts weren't as
high as you experienced and yet I was seriously concerned about being swept
off the edge of the road more than once. I say that with complete sincerity-
there were at least two occasions when it felt like it was possible I might
have been blown off the road in a place where extremely serious injury (or
worse) would have been the likely result.

Quoted message said:

Jobst Brandt

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Yes, the guy who was killed was riding with someone I know fairly well.
Regarding the fallen tree, one still has to consider the odds when
assessing whether something is "safe" (or safe enough, perhaps I should
say). Let's look at Mt. Hamilton and let's say there's maybe 8 miles of
road where trees might be close enough to be an issue when they fall. And
we'll postulate a far more extreme weather event than we had... 20 trees
downed on the road, instead of the one that someone came across. Now toss
in 50 cyclists, *far* more than were on the road that day. And a deadly
swath of 20 feet for each tree, were someone unfortunate enough to be in
that location when it fell.

Darn, this one has my head spinning. Not so easy to figure out as I
though. Anybody want to tackle this one?

Let's do this in terms of time.
Suppose those 8 miles take you 30 minutes, or 1800 seconds.
Suppose when a tree falls, if it falls in a 2 second window it will
seriously hurt you.
Suppose there are 20 trees falling during this stretch at this time.
That's 2*20=40 seconds of serious injury out of 1800 seconds, or 2.2% PER
CYCLIST.

With 50 cyclists that's a 67% chance that one or more cyclists gets
seriously injured.
This assumes independence, and the right formula is 1-(100%-2.2%)^50
Under your assumptions (combined with mine) it's a good day to stay home and
ride the trainer.

Mike Kruger said:

Quoted message said:

Yes, the guy who was killed was riding with someone I know fairly
well. Regarding the fallen tree, one still has to consider the
odds when assessing whether something is "safe" (or safe enough,
perhaps I should say). Let's look at Mt. Hamilton and let's say
there's maybe 8 miles of road where trees might be close enough to
be an issue when they fall. And we'll postulate a far more extreme
weather event than we had... 20 trees downed on the road, instead
of the one that someone came across. Now toss in 50 cyclists, *far*
more than were on the road that day. And a deadly swath of 20 feet
for each tree, were someone unfortunate enough to be in that
location when it fell.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Darn, this one has my head spinning. Not so easy to figure out as I
though. Anybody want to tackle this one?

Quoted message said:

Let's do this in terms of time. Suppose those 8 miles take you 30
minutes, or 1800 seconds. Suppose when a tree falls, if it falls in
a 2 second window it will seriously hurt you. Suppose there are 20
trees falling during this stretch at this time. That's 2*20=40
seconds of serious injury out of 1800 seconds, or 2.2% PER CYCLIST.

Quoted message said:

With 50 cyclists that's a 67% chance that one or more cyclists gets
seriously injured. This assumes independence, and the right formula
is 1-(100%-2.2%)^50 Under your assumptions (combined with mine) it's
a good day to stay home and ride the trainer.

Tell it to the friends and family f the deceased.

http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=2198

Jobst Brandt

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in
news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

http://www.chainreaction.com/mtham06.htm for stories from various
participants in the annual New Year's Day trek up Mt Hamilton near
San Jose, California. We've had rain, snow, gorgeous weather...
you name it. But we've never had anything like the wild winds we
had this time. One guy said he was literally blown off his bike
three times (apparently I pack enough ballast that wasn't an issue
for me).

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA

Mike,

Jobst hinted at it but no one has come out and said it. I think your
trip was foolish and in poor judgment. It could easily have had a
tragic outcome. The leader of the ACTC club ride wisely cancelled the
annual Jan 1 climb of Mt Hamilton out of concern for the safety of
participants.

Yes we are all at risk whenever we ride a bicycle on public roads, but
we can minimize that risk by exercising good judgment. By you own
account you knew conditions would get worse as you continued to ascend
Mt Hamilton in spite of warnings from others who had turned around.

We've all been caught in wild conditions and resulting great stories
but I'm troubled that you feature an adventure that should never have
taken place. People buy bicycles from you and respect your opinion.
You need to let them know that there are times when it is too dangerous
to venture out.

Cheers,

--jerry schonewille

<[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Mike Kruger said:

Let's do this in terms of time. Suppose those 8 miles take you 30
minutes, or 1800 seconds. Suppose when a tree falls, if it falls in
a 2 second window it will seriously hurt you. Suppose there are 20
trees falling during this stretch at this time. That's 2*20=40
seconds of serious injury out of 1800 seconds, or 2.2% PER CYCLIST.

Quoted message said:

With 50 cyclists that's a 67% chance that one or more cyclists gets
seriously injured. This assumes independence, and the right formula
is 1-(100%-2.2%)^50 Under your assumptions (combined with mine) it's
a good day to stay home and ride the trainer.

Tell it to the friends and family f the deceased.

http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=2198

It hurts just to read the link you posted. This must be devastating to
Daniel Plummer's friends and family.

Jerry Schonewille writes:

http://www.chainreaction.com/mtham06.htm

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

for stories from various participants in the annual New Year's Day
trek up Mt Hamilton near San Jose, California. We've had rain,
snow, gorgeous weather... you name it. But we've never had
anything like the wild winds we had this time. One guy said he was
literally blown off his bike three times (apparently I pack enough
ballast that wasn't an issue for me.

Quoted message said:

Jobst hinted at it but no one has come out and said it. I think
your trip was foolish and in poor judgment. It could easily have
had a tragic outcome. The leader of the ACTC club ride wisely
cancelled the annual Jan 1 climb of Mt Hamilton out of concern for
the safety of participants.

I won't go so far as to say it was foolish, but I think signs for
caution were visible. Getting blown off the road on the climbs out of
Halls Valley and from Smith Creek to the top is a more present danger.
I have often looked down these slopes and noted that they are no more
benign than the drop-off from Alpine hairpin turns.

http://tinyurl.com/agnvh

My experience on Tioga pass with 100 mph gusts (reported in the press)
was that the wind was frontal and we rode with intent, near the rock
walls on this wide road.

Quoted message said:

Yes we are all at risk whenever we ride a bicycle on public roads, but
we can minimize that risk by exercising good judgment. By you own
account you knew conditions would get worse as you continued to ascend
Mt Hamilton in spite of warnings from others who had turned around.

Well I listen carefully to such people and try to asses whether they
are putting spin on their reports or whether there is a true hazard.

Quoted message said:

We've all been caught in wild conditions and resulting great stories
but I'm troubled that you feature an adventure that should never have
taken place. People buy bicycles from you and respect your opinion.
You need to let them know that there are times when it is too dangerous
to venture out.

So on Wednesday I visited the storm surf on our coast instead of trying
a Mt Hamilton ride and was amazed at the high tide, huge waves and
lack of beach sand. Ocean waves were breaking on the inland side of
Pescadero Creek highway bridge similarly to those breaking inland of
the RR bridge in Santa Cruz.

Waves were reaching across Cliff Drive and huge collisions of waves at
Lighthouse Point kept people entertained as they stayed away from the
obviously wet areas. One surfer apparently tried it and failed so
that rescue squads were mobilized and he was flown to the hospital.
No other surfers were foolish enough to try it.

There were no birds on Bird Rock or Sea Lions on Seal Rock. Waves
were washing these monuments with so much water that they were about
under as much as above the surf. It was an exciting scene.

Jobst Brandt

Quoted message said:

Mike,

Jobst hinted at it but no one has come out and said it. I think your
trip was foolish and in poor judgment. It could easily have had a
tragic outcome. The leader of the ACTC club ride wisely cancelled the
annual Jan 1 climb of Mt Hamilton out of concern for the safety of
participants.

Yes we are all at risk whenever we ride a bicycle on public roads, but
we can minimize that risk by exercising good judgment. By you own
account you knew conditions would get worse as you continued to ascend
Mt Hamilton in spite of warnings from others who had turned around.

We've all been caught in wild conditions and resulting great stories
but I'm troubled that you feature an adventure that should never have
taken place. People buy bicycles from you and respect your opinion.
You need to let them know that there are times when it is too dangerous
to venture out.

My guess is that far more cyclists lose their lives from running stop signs
and ignoring other basic traffic rules, than from going out in bad weather.
Nevertheless, I don't encourage them to go out into the elements when things
are nasty.

Was it in poor judgment to ride up Mt. Hamilton? Some would definitely say
yes. But were it not for the unfortunate death of Dan Plummer, in an
extraordinarily tragic, bizarre and, I would say, unimaginable accident... I
think many of those who feel riding in such conditions to be poor judgment
would instead think "What a crazy thing for people to be doing" and wonder
what it's really like to turn a corner and suddenly find yourself being
pushed uphill without having to pedal. That experience, to me, was worth
what I felt to be manageable circumstances. In a worst-case scenario, you
can always turn around, or walk. Either option is always there when climbing
Mount Hamilton.

People exercise poor judgment in a variety of ways. Some believe it's ok to
go out for a beer and drive home. Others ride bikes while wearing earpieces
on both ears. Some get in over their heads either spelunking or climbing
rocks. Many ski or snowboard beyond their abilities. And a great many think
it's no big deal to go flying through stop signs on their bikes.

I, on the other hand, choose to ride a bike, on the roads, pretty much
regardless of what the elements have to say about it. For me, part of the
experience is actually doing what you'd planned to do, period. I do whatever
I can to be safe, outside of not riding at all. Flashing lights, lots of
appropriate foul-weather clothing, and roads chosen ahead of time that
minimize interaction with cars.

The fact that others had ridden up the hill and safely come back to tell the
tale, plus the fact that the weather, from a standpoint of rain, had become
much more favorable... added to the fact that we've previously done the ride
in really severe weather (extremely heavy rain, but without such high
winds)... all those things tilted in favor of our continuing up the hill.

But that's not to say there aren't limits. Because the weather reports had
been questionable in the days preceding the ride, I sent out no notice of
the ride on our e-list, essentially cancelling it. It was only late the day
before (New Year's Eve) when I even mentioned the ride at all on our website
(on the "Diary" page), because the weather folk had predicted a break in the
foul weather.

To summarize, I would not encourage our customers to do the sort of rides I
sometimes do. I've got a zillion miles more experience on a bike than most
of them. But that's not to say they can't enjoy the experience vicariously.

Quoted message said:

Cheers,

--jerry schonewille

Thanks, and I do appreciate your viewpoint-

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Mike Jacoubowsky said:

To summarize, I would not encourage our customers to do the sort of rides I
sometimes do. I've got a zillion miles more experience on a bike than most
of them. But that's not to say they can't enjoy the experience vicariously.

If you are equipped and trained to manage the conditions with nothing
worse than extreme discomfort, difficulty and "acceptable" risk of
serious injury or death, then you have my blessing. (FWIW.)

Okay, that doesn't explain skydiving. 🙂 But riding in incredible wind
appeals to me as something to "accidentally" try someday. I rode right
through a dust devil once.

I have decided to heavily qualify my suggestions to my indoor cycling
classes that they just do the Slickrock Trail, even if they don't ride
outdoors. (I used to say, just leave yourself all day to do it, take
plenty of water don't be afraid to push.)

--
--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall

Conservative dictionary:
Judicial Activist: n. A judge who tends to rule against your wishes.

Quoted message said:

I felt a lot safer fighting 100mph gusts riding up Lee Vining Canyon
where there are no trees to fall on my head. That was exciting riding
and an entirely east slope phenomenon

No trees, but Lee Vining Canyon has risk of rock falls in Spring and
avalanches in the Winter. I've seen some really big boulders come
down when the snow melts in late Spring, and I've almost been shoved
off the road by an avalanche in Winter.

I'll take trees over snow.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I felt a lot safer fighting 100mph gusts riding up Lee Vining Canyon
where there are no trees to fall on my head. That was exciting riding
and an entirely east slope phenomenon

No trees, but Lee Vining Canyon has risk of rock falls in Spring and
avalanches in the Winter. I've seen some really big boulders come
down when the snow melts in late Spring, and I've almost been shoved
off the road by an avalanche in Winter.

I'll take trees over snow. (Terry Morse)

On a completely different note, what's your cycling goal this year? How many
feet of climbing? Or do you need to go for "quality" climbing rather than
"quantity?" Say, no more junk grades below 5%?

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA

"Terry Morse" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I felt a lot safer fighting 100mph gusts riding up Lee Vining Canyon
where there are no trees to fall on my head. That was exciting riding
and an entirely east slope phenomenon

No trees, but Lee Vining Canyon has risk of rock falls in Spring and
avalanches in the Winter. I've seen some really big boulders come
down when the snow melts in late Spring, and I've almost been shoved
off the road by an avalanche in Winter.

I'll take trees over snow.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

So on Wednesday I visited the storm surf on our coast instead of trying
a Mt Hamilton ride and was amazed at the high tide, huge waves and
lack of beach sand. Ocean waves were breaking on the inland side of
Pescadero Creek highway bridge similarly to those breaking inland of
the RR bridge in Santa Cruz.

I was at the mouth of Pescadero Creek on New Year's Eve at what must
have been low tide, or close to it. It's amazing all the junk that gets
washed down the creek to be deposited on the beach. I could see that
the high water line extended under the bridge into the estuary. While
Pescadero Creek was running at a furious volume, the weather was warm,
clear, and calm with no hint of the windy storm that would hit the next
day.

Here's a picture of what the beach looked like at low tide.

http://tinyurl.com/auykm

--
Bill Bushnell
http://pobox.com/~bushnell/

Bill Bushnell said:

Quoted message said:

So on Wednesday I visited the storm surf on our coast instead of
trying a Mt Hamilton ride and was amazed at the high tide, huge
waves and lack of beach sand. Ocean waves were breaking on the
inland side of Pescadero Creek highway bridge similarly to those
breaking inland of the RR bridge in Santa Cruz.

Quoted message said:

I was at the mouth of Pescadero Creek on New Year's Eve at what must
have been low tide, or close to it. It's amazing all the junk that
gets washed down the creek to be deposited on the beach. I could
see that the high water line extended under the bridge into the
estuary. While Pescadero Creek was running at a furious volume, the
weather was warm, clear, and calm with no hint of the windy storm
that would hit the next day.

Quoted message said:

Here's a picture of what the beach looked like at low tide.

Quoted message said:

http://tinyurl.com/auykm

Interesting to me is that until the rains came, the creek did not
connect to the ocean but merely seeped through a high sand bar while
the cave in your picture was full to the top with sand. Even odder
for those who have never seen it, at times in late spring the entire
creek flows exclusively through that cave. When you see it full of
sand, or the raging torrent in your picture it is hard to imagine.

Jobst Brandt

Mike Jacoubowsky said:

On a completely different note, what's your cycling goal this year? How many
feet of climbing? Or do you need to go for "quality" climbing rather than
"quantity?" Say, no more junk grades below 5%?

No major cycling goals for 2006 for me. I would like to complete
Climb to Kaiser in less than 10 hours, but that's about all I'm
planning to focus on. My wife was starting to show cyclist widow
tendencies.

My focus this year is helping other riders enjoy cycling in
California. I've launched a bike touring operation that focuses
exclusively on California:

http://www.udctours.com/

Of course, there will be a few climbing trips. As many as people
will tolerate.

Hey Mike, I have some flyers. Would you like to put some in your
shop?
--
terry

Jerry said:

"Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email hidden]> wrote in

Quoted message said:

http://www.chainreaction.com/mtham06.htm for stories from various

You need to let them know that there are times when it is too dangerous
to venture out.

I feel Mike J's stories of his rides is just fine. Some of his rides are
simply too tough for average rider. Have you read his yearly reports of
Sonora Pass ?

Basically, i think the cyclists reading these or any ride reports should
use their own judgement of what they are capable of before attempting
anything they have only read about. OTOH, club rides are different -
because the club specifies the difficulty of the rides.

I think the main intent of any ride story is to give the reader a
feeling of being there and doing it. And including the exact situations
in the report is key. And knowing how that situation was handled is an
added learning experience.

my 2cents,
+ravi

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

On a completely different note, what's your cycling goal this year? How
many
feet of climbing? Or do you need to go for "quality" climbing rather than
"quantity?" Say, no more junk grades below 5%?

No major cycling goals for 2006 for me. I would like to complete
Climb to Kaiser in less than 10 hours, but that's about all I'm
planning to focus on. My wife was starting to show cyclist widow
tendencies.

My focus this year is helping other riders enjoy cycling in
California. I've launched a bike touring operation that focuses
exclusively on California:

http://www.udctours.com/

Of course, there will be a few climbing trips. As many as people
will tolerate.

Hey Mike, I have some flyers. Would you like to put some in your
shop?
--
terry

Sure, you can drop flyers off, no problem. But what got you into the bicycle
touring business? Have you suddenly become independently wealthy and needed
a challenging new way to use your free time?

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://www.chainreaction.com/mtham06.htm for stories from various

You need to let them know that there are times when it is too dangerous
to venture out.

I feel Mike J's stories of his rides is just fine. Some of his rides are
simply too tough for average rider. Have you read his yearly reports of
Sonora Pass ?

Basically, i think the cyclists reading these or any ride reports should
use their own judgement of what they are capable of before attempting
anything they have only read about. OTOH, club rides are different -
because the club specifies the difficulty of the rides.

I think the main intent of any ride story is to give the reader a feeling
of being there and doing it. And including the exact situations in the
report is key. And knowing how that situation was handled is an added
learning experience.

my 2cents,
+ravi

Ravi: I feel terribly guilty about selling that bike to you. Look what it's
done to you!!! You once had a future, and now you're a crazed cycling
lunatic. I should feel ashamed. How do I sleep at night? :>😉

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Mike Jacoubowsky said:

...what got you into the bicycle
touring business? Have you suddenly become independently wealthy and needed
a challenging new way to use your free time?

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Like Terry, I got into the bike touring business too (Agile Compass
cycling tours, www.agile-compass.com, France and Italy). Got burned out
on hi-tech after 20+ years, the dotcom bust + offshoring was a good
time to do something different, it's more healthful than sitting in
front of a glowing screen under artificial lighting and recirculated
air, and it gets me back to my early days -- getting paid for something
I have fun doing!

If I were independently wealthy, I probably wouldn't choose to be a
bike tour operator. Even though it's enjoyable, it's a lot of hard work
coupled with a lot of uncertainty (at least for the first few years).
Instead, I'd probably just ride my bike.

Michael Khaw