TdF--two man race?

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Curt
I have been reading here for several months and keep reading
that the TdF is between Lance and Jan. I really find that
hard to swallow. Sure, Lance would be the favorite and Jan
second I suspect, but there are an awful lot of very good
competitors in the race and as we all know the TdF is very
long and anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last year
a couple of times--going off course and taking a dive while
riding too close to the fans.

I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to
win the tour when so much can go wrong. You can be in the
shape of your life and have an outstanding team and still
lose if you have some problems. Jan is looking a little fat
right now, but I am sure being the pro that he is, he will
show up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not
getting any younger.

Curt

I think people are talking about more than just Lance. The AP today put out an article on Tyler and his tour hopes, and we all know the other names, but if you'd like a disscussion.

Tyler, Heras, Vino, Beloki, the basque riders ect. So there are clearly people out there and feel free to discuss them if you are so concerned

"curt" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

Quoted message said:

Lance does look strong, but he is not getting any younger.

Curt

Neither is Ulrich:

cyclingnews.comnews.phpOpen ↗
/apr26news

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

Curt said:

I have been reading here for several months and keep
reading that the TdF is between Lance and Jan. I
really find that hard to swallow.

Sure,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Lance would be the favorite and Jan second I suspect,
but there are an awful lot of very good competitors in
the race and as we all know the TdF is very long and
anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last

year

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

a couple of times--going off course and taking a dive
while riding too close to the fans. I think people are
underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour
when so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of
your life and

have

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

an outstanding team and still lose if you have some
problems. Jan is looking a little fat right now, but I
am sure being the pro that he

is,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

he will show up in great form. Lance does look strong,
but he is not getting any younger. Curt

I think people are talking about more than just Lance. The
AP today put out an article on Tyler and his tour hopes,
and we all know the other names, but if you'd like a
disscussion.

Tyler, Heras, Vino, Beloki, the basque riders ect. So
there are clearly people out there and feel free to
discuss them if you are so concerned

I have no concern, it is just when I read here people talk
about Lance and Jan as if they are the only two in the race.
I personally think Lance is on his way out and someone will
take him down this year or certainly the next if he even
competes. I would like to see him win a record 6, but he
will need some luck on his side. It is amazing he has won so
many in a row as it
is. As for Jan, I think he is on a very strong team and
they most likely do not want to see a record six from
an American. I would suspect that most of Europe would
like to see anyone but an American win and I wouldn't
blame them to be honest.

This will no doubt be a very exciting TdF. I am looking
forward to it and hope we have some decent coverage and
don't have to put up with some stupid major network taking
over on the last day and not even showing the race.

No concern here, just surprised people are not looking at
other strong riders to win. Yes, I do sometimes hear Tyler's
name mentioned, so he is being looked at as a serious
competitor.

Curt

"curt" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

<SNIP>> I think people are underestimating how difficult it
is to win the tour

when

Quoted message said:

so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life
and have an outstanding team and still lose if you have
some problems. Jan is looking

a

Quoted message said:

little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he
is, he will show up in great form. Lance does look strong,
but he is not getting any younger.

<SNIP>

If you are talking about all things being equal, who is
capable of winning? I still think it comes down to Lance,
Jan, and Vino on the outside. Showing good form on one stage
when you're not considered a threat to the GC does not make
you a Tour contender. The winner will probably be in the top
three or four in each of the TTs, climb well, and have a
team capable of chasing down attacks. This eliminates a lot
of riders who will have success going after stages, but not
the GC. Tyler Hamilton is no spring chicken, and a lot of
his sucess will depend on how much support he gets from
Oscar Sevilla. Tyler mat have had a better chance this year
if he stuck with CSC. I haven't seen anything from Liberty
Seguros this year (or ONCE in the past) that makes me think
they can control the race and defend the Yellow Jersey.
Euskatel will do well in the mountains, but give away time
everywhere else. What other teams are out there that have a
realistic shot?

-T

Quoted post said:

[

If you are talking about all things being equal, who is
capable of winning? I still think it comes down to Lance,
Jan, and Vino on the outside. Showing good form on one stage
when you're not considered a threat to the GC does not make
you a Tour contender. The winner will probably be in the top
three or four in each of the TTs, climb well, and have a
team capable of chasing down attacks. This eliminates a lot
of riders who will have success going after stages, but not
the GC. Tyler Hamilton is no spring chicken, and a lot of
his sucess will depend on how much support he gets from
Oscar Sevilla. Tyler mat have had a better chance this year
if he stuck with CSC. I haven't seen anything from Liberty
Seguros this year (or ONCE in the past) that makes me think
they can control the race and defend the Yellow Jersey.
Euskatel will do well in the mountains, but give away time
everywhere else. What other teams are out there that have a
realistic shot?

-T [/B]

I don't think that you are looking at this Tour in the right light. You seem to think the the tour will be won by someone who can put in a credible threat to lance or Jan. The real question, however, is what if lance and Jan don't win. If Jan and Lance have terrible form and crack what happens? If they both lose 10 minutes one day then who can win?

I sort of think that outside of those few names then that is the only way that someone besides lance, jan, tyler, vino can win. Remember that the TTT is capped at a 3 minute loss, and there is mtt. This might mean that a basque rider or heras is a legit threat. Furthermore, there might not even be an issue of say defending the yellow if it isn't a powerful team that has the jersey i.e. postal or telekom. Nonetheless, if Jan or Lance don't crack then I really don't see anyone beating them in a classic race besides Hamilton or Vino. I only say those two names because those guys can actually TT. If Lance and Jan do crack then it is wide open. Since no one else will put such significant time into the feild in tts then it could be a climbers race as well. I suppose if botero came on form then he could win a race that was pretty classic, but I seem to doubt that the third guy on telekom who looked terrible last year will really do that.

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

I don't think that you are looking at this Tour in the
right light. You seem to think the the tour will be won
by someone who can put in a credible threat to lance or
Jan. The real question, however, is what if lance and Jan
don't win. If Jan and Lance have terrible form and crack
what happens? If they both lose 10 minutes one day then
who can win?

That's my point about all things being equal (No Bad Luck),
But if past performance is any indication of future results,
I don't think you'll see Lance or Jan crack. One of the
things that impressed me last year (And hopefuly I've
learned from) is that both Lance and Jan were in situations
where they were about to crack - what they did was drop off
the pace and ride tempo to the top. In both cases they
limited their losses to a few seconds. A less experienced
rider would have tried to hang on until they bonk.

There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days in
the mountains, but give up 20-30 minutes on other stages.
There are only a few who are there for every stage (Lance,
Jan, Tyler, Vino, etc.) I think it's unlikely that any GC
threat will take big (5 minutes or more) time off of Lance
or Jan. If that's the case, they better not give up too much
in the TT's - A weakness the Eusaktel riders will have.

-T

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days
in the mountains, but give up 20-30 minutes on other
stages. There are only a few who are there for every
stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino, etc.) I think it's
unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5 minutes or
more) time off of Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they
better not give up too much in the TT's - A weakness the
Eusaktel riders will have.

The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials,
but you can bet they have been working on it. I really think
this year will be a close race. Any of the following riders
have a great chance:

Final 8 from Last Year:

1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28

Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have
the ability to break through and win it. I would like to see
Armstrong win, but these other guys have the stuff to win.

I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages
to get into form, he would be included.

Mike

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Michael
"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days
in the mountains, but give up 20-30 minutes on other
stages. There are only a few who are there for every
stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino, etc.) I think it's
unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5 minutes or
more) time off of Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they
better not give up too much in the TT's - A weakness the
Eusaktel riders will have.

The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials,
but you can bet they have been working on it. I really think
this year will be a close race. Any of the following riders
have a great chance:

Final 8 from Last Year:

1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28

Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have
the ability to break through and win it. I would like to see
Armstrong win, but these other guys have the stuff to win.

I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages
to get into form, he would be included.

Mike

Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe he has the 7th best chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time
trials, but you can

bet

Quoted message said:

they have been working on it. I really think this year
will be a close

race.

Quoted message said:

Any of the following riders have a great chance:

Final 8 from Last Year:

1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28

Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders
have the ability to break through and win it. I would
like to see Armstrong win, but these other guys have the
stuff to win.

I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages
to get into form, he would be included.

Mike

I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not
afraid to attack. Vino will give up a little in the TT, and
because he'll be riding support for Jan. - He's not going to
hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs to stay fresh
for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for
the whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia
and Mayo are wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve
their TT's enough in one year (without sacraficing climbing)
to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are not threats.
Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be
back to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He
can't TT like the rest, can only attack on really steep
climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi Leipheimer could be
a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the top
5.

-T

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in
message
"]news:[email hidden]...>
Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe he has
the 7th best

Quoted message said:

chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about
Heras. He seems to be more legitimate threat than Basso
and Moreau.

Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing
11th. And then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not
likely he's a serious contender this year: he hasn't won
that much, and he isn't a very good time trialer. But he's
only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break out year,
but maybe not this year.

Mike

Michael said:

Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing
11th. And then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not
likely he's a serious contender this year: he hasn't won
that much, and he isn't a very good time trialer. But he's
only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break out year,
but maybe not this year.

I'm not sure if you're being serious or not. I hope not.

Tom Schulenburg said:

Zubeldia and Mayo are wildcards - I'm not sure they will
improve their TT's enough in one year (without sacraficing
climbing) to really challenge.

In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed
exceptionally good TT form, for him. And I don't think he
lost his climbing legs.

Quoted message said:

Basso and Moreau are not threats.

I agree about Moreau, that is one instabile guy. Basso, I
have hope for him. He seemed to be lacking a little in the
Ardennes classics, but we'll see how he does in Romandie. So
far, so good.

Quoted message said:

Leipheimer could be a darkhorse

Ofcourse, he already is a dark horse. We don't know what to
expect. Can't be worse than last year though.

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message -"]news:[email hidden]-
kc.rr.com...

Quoted message said:

The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time
trials, but you can bet they have been working on it. I
really think this year will be a

close

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:

Final 8 from Last Year:

1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28

I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not
afraid to

attack.

Quoted message said:

Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be
riding support for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the
top of the climbs if he needs

to

Quoted message said:

stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the
bike upright for

the

Quoted message said:

whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia
and Mayo are wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve
their TT's enough in one year (without sacraficing
climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are not
threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think
he'll be

back

Quoted message said:

to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't
TT like the rest, can only attack on really steep climbs,
and has an idiot for a DS. Levi Leipheimer could be a
darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the

top

Quoted message said:

5.

IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to
beat out Vino because he climbs faster and TT's faster
when on form.

I expect the time gaps between Lance and Jan to be more
on the order of 3-4 minutes. There will be some 20
seconds on La Mongie, 40 seconds on Plateau de Beille, 30
seconds on Villard-de-Lans, almost a minute on L'Alpe
d'Huez and the rest in the Besancon time trial. If Lance
retires from the European peloton at the end of 2004 then
perhaps Jan will race again in 2005 but if Lance is there
I expect Jan to retire a broken man. Regardless of what
you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely
remain an unbroken record forever.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Tom Kunich
Regardless of what
you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely
remain an unbroken record forever.

True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't won #6 yet.

I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?

I can't.

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe he has the
7th best chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and
what about Heras. He seems to be more legitimate threat
than Basso and Moreau.

Heras is no threat at all. He's hellishly fast in super
steep climbs but slow as snot elsewhere and he couldn't TT
to save his ass on a flat road.

Beloki will be a threat in 2005 if 2004 doesn't destroy
his morale.

Basso is on the edge of a breakthrough. He is just reaching
the age where you'd expect him to start performing.

Moreau is a very good rider who has a lot of potential
still. I don't know what his training is like but I suspect
that he could improve a hell of a lot with a first rate
trainer. I think that you could tell a lot about European
training methods by reading some of their statements:
Roberto Laiseka said "They give me a training plan at the
beginning of the year and I just throw it away. I know how
to train." That's about the same thing I heard Alexi Grewal
say one time. And we all know what a great career he had.

"jim gravity" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well
race again in 2005 because if he puts the mark at 7
Tours it will likely remain an unbroken record
forever.

True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming)
But he hasn't won #6 yet.

I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or
number 6 for that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet.
Could you imagine the self restraint required to walk
away, "while on top"?

I can't.

Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance
wasn't going to ride in the US because of dumb US racers?
Strange that he was quoted as saying that he intends to race
more in the US if he rides in 2005.

Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in
message
"]news:[email hidden]...> Can
you explain how

Ivan basso would win? Maybe

Quoted message said:

he has the 7th best

Quoted message said:

chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about
Heras. He seems to be more legitimate threat than Basso
and Moreau.

Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing
11th. And then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not
likely he's a serious contender this year: he hasn't won
that much, and he isn't a very good time trialer. But he's
only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break out year,
but maybe not this year.

Lance wasn't considered "a very good time trialer" when he
started. And yet that was what he was known for in the USA.
Don't write Basso off. He's a winner and he never quit last
year under the worst conditions. That bodes very well for
that young man.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Tom Kunich
"jim gravity" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well
race again in 2005 because if he puts the mark at 7
Tours it will likely remain an unbroken record
forever.

True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming)
But he hasn't won #6 yet.

I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or
number 6 for that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet.
Could you imagine the self restraint required to walk
away, "while on top"?

I can't.

Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance
wasn't going to ride in the US because of dumb US racers?
Strange that he was quoted as saying that he intends to race
more in the US if he rides in 2005.

Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?

Bike riders haven't quit at the top, but other superstar US atheletes have. I agree, with the Heras thing, but he has been time trialing better, one of the TTs is a mountain, and he is on a team that has always been excellent in the TTT. I think that makes him a stornger canidate then moreau for instance...at least in this tour.

"Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"jim gravity" <[email hidden]> wrote in
message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well
race again in

2005

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will
likely remain an unbroken record forever.

True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming)
But he hasn't won #6 yet.

I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or
number 6 for that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet.
Could you imagine the self restraint required to walk
away, "while on top"?

I can't.

Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance
wasn't going to ride in the US because of dumb US racers?
Strange that he was quoted as saying that he intends to
race more in the US if he rides in 2005.

Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why
would they?

Bernard Hinault ... retired at 32 after helping LeMond win
... a promised payback. I think it could be argued that he
was still at least very near the top of his game.

Bob C.