TdF Stage One TT going to be a spoiler?

Quoted message said:

I haven't seen discussion here yet about the extra-long prolog for
Stage One of the TdF this year. I saw one item that said it might serve
to start getting GC sorted out right away. Is that a good thing? Oh
well, it's something different. --JP

That's relevant if you really pay attention to where they are after
the prologue. Best I know that's really relevant to 1) the guy that
gets to wear the yellow jersey, 2) his family, if any, and 3) his
sponsors - for a day.

The only things relevant to GC in the Tour are: 1) if LA is in the
lead, and 2) all other things that may [censored] LA. Since someone else
winning the prologue is unlikely to [censored] LA, it isn't important.

Note: this is not to say LA winning is good or bad, as I'm going with
JU, but just as a gauge of importance. 1) is practically the only
thing of note concerning GC that won't [censored] LA.

Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

Quoted message said:

I haven't seen discussion here yet about the extra-long prolog for
Stage One of the TdF this year. I saw one item that said it might serve
to start getting GC sorted out right away. Is that a good thing? Oh
well, it's something different. --JP

Santiago Botero should have fun here. It's early enough in the Tour
that it will precede his inevitable collapse from trying to maintain
form too long.

-Sonarrat.

sonarrat said:

Quoted message said:

I haven't seen discussion here yet about the extra-long prolog for
Stage One of the TdF this year. I saw one item that said it might serve
to start getting GC sorted out right away. Is that a good thing? Oh
well, it's something different. --JP

Santiago Botero should have fun here. It's early enough in the Tour
that it will precede his inevitable collapse from trying to maintain
form too long.

-Sonarrat.

I think Jan and Lance and Landis are going to ride it at 98%, and if
Telekom is going to ride as a team, Botero should be laying low too,
especially since his form has been good for so long. Look to guys like
Rogers, McGee, Cancellara and Leipheimer. I bet a tablespoonful of
peanut butter that Leipheimer wins it or gets top 3, and if he doesn't
win it, he'll get the yellow jersey from the TTT. He'll hang on to it
until the first mtf and fade to 5th by the finish. It's his only
chance and his best chance to have a great Tour, because I think he's
got the early form. He could ride more conservatively and still get
5th or so, but never have had the lead.

"gym.gravity" <[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
|
|
| sonarrat wrote:
| > [email hidden] wrote:
| > > I haven't seen discussion here yet about the extra-long prolog for
| > > Stage One of the TdF this year. I saw one item that said it might
serve
| > > to start getting GC sorted out right away. Is that a good thing? Oh
| > > well, it's something different. --JP
| >
| > Santiago Botero should have fun here. It's early enough in the Tour
| > that it will precede his inevitable collapse from trying to maintain
| > form too long.
| >
| > -Sonarrat.
|
| I think Jan and Lance and Landis are going to ride it at 98%, and if
| Telekom is going to ride as a team, Botero should be laying low too,
| especially since his form has been good for so long. Look to guys like
| Rogers, McGee, Cancellara and Leipheimer. I bet a tablespoonful of
| peanut butter that Leipheimer wins it or gets top 3, and if he doesn't
| win it, he'll get the yellow jersey from the TTT. He'll hang on to it
| until the first mtf and fade to 5th by the finish. It's his only
| chance and his best chance to have a great Tour, because I think he's
| got the early form. He could ride more conservatively and still get
| 5th or so, but never have had the lead.
|

I don't agree. They have to ride it at 100%. This isn't just a "long
prologue". Stage 1 takes the place of the 1st ITT as well. The next (and
last) ITT isn't until the day before Paris. So the strong TTers you
mentioned who want to do well in the GC will have to put as much time as
possible into folks who might climb better but can't TT as well, like Mayo
or Heras (who presumably won't lose as much time as Mayo in the TTT). 19 km
is long enough to pick up some time. Plus being held on l'ile de
noirmoutier, the flatness of the course as well as the wind could play a
factor to the further disadvantage of a tiny climber type.

trg said:

I don't agree. They have to ride it at 100%. This isn't just a "long
prologue".

Lance has the advantage of starting last, so he will know exactly what
he has to do. An ideal result for Lance would be that he's ahead of
all his main rivals but not in yellow.

The question is, if one of Lance's main rivals has posted the best
time will he bust his ass to try to post a better time and take on the
burden of yellow?

Jack Hollis said:

trg said:

I don't agree. They have to ride it at 100%. This isn't just a "long
prologue".

Lance has the advantage of starting last, so he will know exactly what
he has to do. An ideal result for Lance would be that he's ahead of
all his main rivals but not in yellow.

The question is, if one of Lance's main rivals has posted the best
time will he bust his ass to try to post a better time and take on the
burden of yellow?

I doubt Discovery would defend a prologue yellow very intently.

"gwhite" <[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Jack Hollis said:

trg said:

I don't agree. They have to ride it at 100%. This isn't just a "long
prologue".

Lance has the advantage of starting last, so he will know exactly what
he has to do. An ideal result for Lance would be that he's ahead of
all his main rivals but not in yellow.

The question is, if one of Lance's main rivals has posted the best
time will he bust his ass to try to post a better time and take on the
burden of yellow?

I doubt Discovery would defend a prologue yellow very intently.

Yeah, I think Lance, as usual want to win the thing to send a message, but
Discovery won't work to defend it. Discovery will also want some other
riders to place high in the stage so they can be sent away on breaks and
that way Discovery won't have to chase, even if Lance is in yellow.

"gwhite" <[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
|
|
| Jack Hollis wrote:
| >
| > On Wed, 22 Jun 2005 17:20:11 +0200, "trg"
| > <[email hidden]> wrote:
| >
| > >I don't agree. They have to ride it at 100%. This isn't just a "long
| > >prologue".
| >
| > Lance has the advantage of starting last, so he will know exactly what
| > he has to do. An ideal result for Lance would be that he's ahead of
| > all his main rivals but not in yellow.
| >
| > The question is, if one of Lance's main rivals has posted the best
| > time will he bust his ass to try to post a better time and take on the
| > burden of yellow?
|
| I doubt Discovery would defend a prologue yellow very intently.

It's not a prologue. It's an ITT stage. But your point is accurate.

I disagree. If LANCE has a chance to win stage 1 he will, you'll see.
Of course he has the best chance since he starts LAST.

Cyclingnews.com,
"With an approximate race distance of some 3500 kilometres, the Tour
will kick off with not a prologue (which is always less than 8km), but
a 19km individual time trial between Fromentine and l'Ile de
Noirmoutier, the latter being a tiny island in the Atlantic, a popular
destination for Parisians. The little island, famous for its
potatoes..."

-Ken