TDF '04 contenders

I just see 2 riders able to win, Amrstong or Ullrich.
There is certainly much more importance this year on the team than during the years before.
T-Mobile can certainly give the necessary push to Ullrich, but this depends on the form of the riders. Without injuries, Botero, Salvodelli, Vino, and Kessler can certainly ride the train in the mountains for Ullrich. But! The tour will not be decieded by the team, I think that individually Ullrich is much stronger and more experienced than during his former 2nd places. We could see last year that Armstrong isn't longer the dominator, neither in the mountains neither in the time trials. One thing is sure: le tour 2004 will be once again a big battle and I personally see Ullrich winning. Don't worry about the spring and his recent races, it is not important to win at this stage it is important to be in shape on the beginning/middle of june for the final races and the beginning. I can even imagine that Armstrong will not be under the top 3 this year...he just was not convincing last year....

Armstrong odds on favorite but Heras knows his tactics and I believe is a top contender if he can hang in the TT's. Ullrich looks out of shape to me. He would have to come a long way before July.

This continuing onsession with the TDF, folks !

There are plenty of other races to discuss - look we're in the middle of the Classics season - we've got the Giro, Romandie,
Tour of Switzerland, Dauphine all coming up.
We've got the national championships coming up too.

Has anyone got any thoughts about Rebellins double this week ?

There's more to cycling than the TDF.
The TDF is not the be all and end all !

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by limerickman
There's more to cycling than the TDF.

That is why this is posted in the Grand Tour section.
Feel free to start posts on the Spring Classics in the Road Racing area.

I find it amazing that Armstrong has won five tours in a row, despite the bad luck of last year. I think for him to loose it would take some of these factors:

A "fan" to physically harm him, as per Merckx. I think I read somewhere Merckx was punched in the stomach by a spectator thus harming his chances for a 6th title. There may be a sicko out there prepared to do something like this.

A cold/virus or some other physical limitation out of Armstrongs control.

Bad luck, a couple of punctures, falls, broken bones.

Whilst Armstrong is sprinting to victory in America, Simoni struggles, Ulrich is pulling out of races, Belocki is not racing.

I am an Ulrich fan but think if it comes down to rider v rider it will be hard to beat Armstrong.

The beauty of sport and life is that it may happen though.

I was going to post this as a seperate thread for comments but i figure it will build on the discussion of who will win...

This was taken from cyclingnews.com:

First Edition Cycling News for April 13, 2004
Edited by Jeff Jones

Merckx critical of Ullrich
Although Jan Ullrich maintains that he is right on target for his Tour de France plans, there are concerns that he is taking things a little too easy at this time of year. In today's Rund um Köln, Ullrich could only manage 64th place at 5'41 down from the winner, a far cry from his 52 km solo effort to win last year.

Ullrich joked afterwards that, "In 2003 I was an outsider and I was only able to win because the others didn't recognise me in my Coast jersey. However, it's a long time to the Tour and I'm on the right track."

Five time Tour winner Eddy Merckx, who is never afraid to speak his mind, told DPA, "It seems that Jan has again not worked hard enough in his previous preparation and is still too much overweight. Sure, he has still over two months, but to beat Lance Armstrong in the Tour will be harder than 2003."

Ullrich will ride in Wednesday week's Flèche Wallonne (April 21), followed by Liege-Bastogne-Liege (April 25) and the Rund um den Henninger Turm (May 1).

and this is taken from yahoo cycling news...

Ullrich pulls out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege

BERLIN, April 22 (Reuters) - Jan Ullrich will not compete in Sunday's Liege-Bastogne-Liege World Cup race because of his poor form, his T-Mobile team said on Thursday.

"Jan is not at the moment in a form that would enable him to play a leading role in such a race," T-Mobile spokesman Olaf Ludwig said.

German Ullrich, 30, won the Tour de France in 1997 and is regarded as the rider most capable of stopping Lance Armstrong from winning the Tour a record sixth time in July.

He finished runner-up to American Armstrong in last year's Tour.

So is Jan on track?

I am hoping Jan will surprise me but I just don't see him getting into sufficient form in the time he has available.

Agree with Luke1972: seems like only bad luck will stop Armstrong at this stage. But maybe Heras or Hamilton are up to it?

about Ullrich, he will be in shape for le Tour...
As Laurant Jalabert told yesterday during Liege-Bastogne-Liege: ...I don't mind about Ullrich's shape, he is riding hard (too hard) races compared to Armstrong (who is riding 2nd and 3rd category races); Ullrich will be in shape for the tour....
I am quite sure that for the Tour de Suisse (if he will be) we will be see an Ullrich in pre-Tour shape.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by traxnseq
about Ullrich, he will be in shape for le Tour...
As Laurant Jalabert told yesterday during Liege-Bastogne-Liege: ...I don't mind about Ullrich's shape, he is riding hard (too hard) races compared to Armstrong (who is riding 2nd and 3rd category races); Ullrich will be in shape for the tour....
I am quite sure that for the Tour de Suisse (if he will be) we will be see an Ullrich in pre-Tour shape.

Can you provide a link to Jalabert's comments (did you get them from the net ?)
Thanks
Limerickman

there is no link;
I heard him live, he was co-commentator for the french television during liege-bastogne-liege and they discussed about armstrong and ullrich. The main commentator had the same concerns as a lot of people about ullrich (weight, shape, attitude.....) and jalabert calmed him directly in saying ....don"t worry .....

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by traxnseq
there is no link;
I heard him live, he was co-commentator for the french television during liege-bastogne-liege and they discussed about armstrong and ullrich. The main commentator had the same concerns as a lot of people about ullrich (weight, shape, attitude.....) and jalabert calmed him directly in saying ....don"t worry .....

Can I ask you - how is Laurent doing as a commentator ?
He was always such a canny rider, I would imagine that he has some good insights in to the tactics and strategies.
I always like LJ - reminded me of my all time hero Sean Kelly.

is very very good as commentator;
during the tdf is even on a moto to comment from the inside of the race;
if not it is definitely someone who speaks very open and who knows the business and the riders (and their attitude);
French Television has definetly won a good consultant, that means during the 'main events' they have Bernard Thevenet + JaJa....

is very very good as commentator;
during the tdf is even on a moto to comment from the inside of the race;
it is definitely someone who speaks very open and who knows the business and the riders (and their attitude);
French Television has definetly won a good consultant, that means during the 'main events' they have Bernard Thevenet + JaJa....

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by traxnseq
is very very good as commentator;
during the tdf is even on a moto to comment from the inside of the race;
it is definitely someone who speaks very open and who knows the business and the riders (and their attitude);
French Television has definetly won a good consultant, that means during the 'main events' they have Bernard Thevenet + JaJa....

Great to have a double TDF winner and a Green Jersey winner
commentating !

Ohhh, juicy thread with loads of scope for thought on many topics! Very interesting indeed. Problem is this site is so massive (a great thing but not for a blonde like me) that I keep getting lost so am def subscribing to read all of this at a later date and the other that you mentioned Patch!

Ciao tutti 🙂

Ullrich 1st - will have a very hard national tour and will come into form in Swiss Tour
Armstrong - wont have a bad day, but will lack his top power. Maybe 2nd
Hamilton & Mayo would be my other possible picks. Would like to see Hamilton get through without injury - definite podium. Vino will be too nice to Ullrich - about 6th

Ullrich doesn't ride L-B-L due to lack of form... I don't know about you guys, but this seems a little suspicious to me. Would the team really make this anouncement to the world if it were true? Maybe he's "sand-bagging" a little to get Armstrong and others to relax their training. It's never too soon for tactics in the TDF.

I hope Armstrong wins. I don't know him, and have never met him. After reading his books and watching over the last few years, he seems like a hard person to get along with (although, he has seemed to mellow recently). His story is such an inspiring one, and gives many people with a terrible disease hope. For this reason alone, I hope he wins 2 more.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by kerank
Ullrich doesn't ride L-B-L due to lack of form... I don't know about you guys, but this seems a little suspicious to me. Would the team really make this anouncement to the world if it were true? Maybe he's "sand-bagging" a little to get Armstrong and others to relax their training. It's never too soon for tactics in the TDF....

interesting point; but please remember that there is a tradition every year about ullrich: weight, shape, preparation....
every year the same stories and no one really give him a chance to be in a good condition for the tour; BUT he never finished the Tour worst then 2nd.....
I am quite sure that this year he prepared himself like never before (and for the condition and for the mind) and there is no reason to worry about his recent races, the time is just not right so far; German Tour and Tour de Suisse will really be a final stage before the tour and he will show up on both before explosing at the Tour de France.....

I'm a newbie so if this is a dumb question, I appolgize... has there ever been a (for the want of a better phraze) tripple crown winner? I mean has anyone ever won all of the major tours in one year? Is it even possible? With all the hoopla over the TDF maybe it's time for the fans to demand something more from the athletes and the sponsors.