T-Mobile strategy

tcklyde said:

In my opinion, from a tactical perspective, having Vino high up on GC is absolutely ideal for Ullrich and T-Mobile -- if they stay committed with Ullrich. Vino's placement and strong lead up to the Tour make him a must chase for the Disco boys and LA in the mountains. A series of strong attacks by Vino, and Kloden if he is up to it, could put the kind or pressure onto LA needed to give Ullrich a window.

If T-Mobile just bides their time in the mountains, tailing Armstrong and his domestiques, I don't see what they will hope to accomplish. Riding aggressively and trying to shake up Disco would be a much more interesting strategy.

I agree with the latter: whatever T-Mobile decides to do, sucking the wheels of Discovery without more isn't going to do it, because Discovery looks to be strong enough this year, as in the past few, to simply win by attrition, shedding everyone else on their way up and letting Lance slide by at the crucial moment.

And the strategy you suggest may not be a bad one, unless of course by attacking as you suggest, Vino (I don't think Kloden has it in him this year) simply pulls Lance away from Jan and then ends up isolating himself as the only real threat to Armstrong.

What I think ought to be done is a "deal with the devil" between Basso and Vino. Together, those two might just be spry enough and relentless enough to expose Armstrong on a bad day or two. This would benefit not only those two, but Ullrich and perhaps the contenders on the lower rung, like Heras and Beloki, both of whom seem like possible spoilers so far.

Do you see any 'oil signs' from Beloki??

he is still in shock since 2003, sadly🙁

rejobako said:

I agree with the latter: whatever T-Mobile decides to do, sucking the wheels of Discovery without more isn't going to do it, because Discovery looks to be strong enough this year, as in the past few, to simply win by attrition, shedding everyone else on their way up and letting Lance slide by at the crucial moment.

And the strategy you suggest may not be a bad one, unless of course by attacking as you suggest, Vino (I don't think Kloden has it in him this year) simply pulls Lance away from Jan and then ends up isolating himself as the only real threat to Armstrong.

What I think ought to be done is a "deal with the devil" between Basso and Vino. Together, those two might just be spry enough and relentless enough to expose Armstrong on a bad day or two. This would benefit not only those two, but Ullrich and perhaps the contenders on the lower rung, like Heras and Beloki, both of whom seem like possible spoilers so far.

Don't count out popovitsj...........IF it will get too close (which it won't, but lets assume😉 ) then Popo is allowed to attack. And lets see what T-mobile will do then.

As LA allready said they can counter easily........azevedo, popo, savoldelli (will he attack on the downhill of galibier!) and LA himself!

rejobako said:

I agree with the latter: whatever T-Mobile decides to do, sucking the wheels of Discovery without more isn't going to do it, because Discovery looks to be strong enough this year, as in the past few, to simply win by attrition, shedding everyone else on their way up and letting Lance slide by at the crucial moment.

And the strategy you suggest may not be a bad one, unless of course by attacking as you suggest, Vino (I don't think Kloden has it in him this year) simply pulls Lance away from Jan and then ends up isolating himself as the only real threat to Armstrong.

What I think ought to be done is a "deal with the devil" between Basso and Vino. Together, those two might just be spry enough and relentless enough to expose Armstrong on a bad day or two. This would benefit not only those two, but Ullrich and perhaps the contenders on the lower rung, like Heras and Beloki, both of whom seem like possible spoilers so far.

hillelos said:

Do you see any 'oil signs' from Beloki??

he is still in shock since 2003, sadly🙁

I didn't know there was a mountain stage before the alps. Saturday certainly looks interesting. We could see riders testing Lance on the final climb, it could be a good test for the likes of Ullrich, Basso, to see where their climbing legs are. If they fail, well, the rest day is around the corner. I just hope it's not Discovery controlling things, Jan should have a go, if only to test his climbing legs.

Have you looked at the gradient of the climb: it's 16,8km long and an average gradient of 4.4%. Not much I doubt there will be a lot of gaps............still T-mobile will/has to attack.

That will be the first interesting stage for the GC......with the next stage on sunday it's too bad the mountains stop too early!

Ullefan said:

I didn't know there was a mountain stage before the alps. Saturday certainly looks interesting. We could see riders testing Lance on the final climb, it could be a good test for the likes of Ullrich, Basso, to see where their climbing legs are. If they fail, well, the rest day is around the corner. I just hope it's not Discovery controlling things, Jan should have a go, if only to test his climbing legs.

MJtje said:

Have you looked at the gradient of the climb: it's 16,8km long and an average gradient of 4.4%. Not much I doubt there will be a lot of gaps............still T-mobile will/has to attack.

That will be the first interesting stage for the GC......with the next stage on sunday it's too bad the mountains stop too early!

Sunday looks interesting too, it looks alot like last year's massif central stage where basically a group of climber/breakaways stayed the distance, GC riders sticking together. Boring. Looks like Boogerd will feature, Axel Merckx probably.

4.4% is not much but it's a long climb at 16.8km, it's possible for someone to attack, they have to test Lance, it's the only way to know how good he is. Knowing Jan, he'll probably struggle to stay in the wheel of armstrong, but won't loose any time.

Yeah Boogerd allready said he wants to try to do something on saturday and sunday. His legs are good............who knows

Ullefan said:

Sunday looks interesting too, it looks alot like last year's massif central stage where basically a group of climber/breakaways stayed the distance, GC riders sticking together. Boring. Looks like Boogerd will feature, Axel Merckx probably.

4.4% is not much but it's a long climb at 16.8km, it's possible for someone to attack, they have to test Lance, it's the only way to know how good he is. Knowing Jan, he'll probably struggle to stay in the wheel of armstrong, but won't loose any time.

MJtje said:

Yeah Boogerd allready said he wants to try to do something on saturday and sunday. His legs are good............who knows

Rasmussen/Boogerd duo? 🙄

Ullefan said:

Rasmussen/Boogerd duo? 🙄

Maybe Voeckler too if his target this the polka dot jersey.

Why would it make sense to put Vino high on GC, then sacrifice him for Ullrich by making him an attack dog - hoping to wear LA down?

Also, I do not see anyone biting on the attack from Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli. It will be a strange move from Discovery, unless they just want someone to go up the road, then sit up and wait for Lance to pace him up the mountain. Or perhaps so they don't have to chase, but spending energy on a breakaway and then getting caught is worse then letting someone else go and let sprinters chase them and conserve energy and people.

There's no way that Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli will be allowed to win the Tour by beating Lance. So for Ullrich, Vino, Mayo, to cover an attack by a Disco guy is INSANE! They will gladly let it go, just like they would let other "nobodies" like Voekler go. Everyone from Disco except for Lance is a "nobody" as far as they are concerned.

In the next few stages, an attack by Hincapie could get the sprinter teams rolling, taking a bit of work off the rest of the team. As there are lots of other riders who will attack anyway, I don't see the gain for Discovery. And it wouldn't compel the GC teams work, just the sprinters. Nonetheless, they are at least talking about it, as a reward for George, it seems.

An attack by Popovich and a gain of a few minutes seems more of a possibility, as it is an insurance policy in case LA crashes or whatever. So I would think that the GC oriented teams would have to bite, just in case. Salvodelli is presumably too tired to make a realistic push for the GC (didn't show well in the TT), so no one would pay attention to him.

Crankster said:

Also, I do not see anyone biting on the attack from Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli. It will be a strange move from Discovery, unless they just want someone to go up the road, then sit up and wait for Lance to pace him up the mountain. Or perhaps so they don't have to chase, but spending energy on a breakaway and then getting caught is worse then letting someone else go and let sprinters chase them and conserve energy and people.

There's no way that Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli will be allowed to win the Tour by beating Lance. So for Ullrich, Vino, Mayo, to cover an attack by a Disco guy is INSANE! They will gladly let it go, just like they would let other "nobodies" like Voekler go. Everyone from Disco except for Lance is a "nobody" as far as they are concerned.

I think the Mobile strategy of trying to maintain Vino's high placement on GC is 100% correct.
Given that JU injured himself in that training ride before the start of the TDF, it makes sense for Mobile to have another option if JU is not in a position to do well on GC.

I think the Vino strategy is important for other reasons as well.
I am not convinced that LA is going as well as people might think.
I watched that TTT again : and LA was sweating profusely compared to the other riders on his team and riders in opposing teams.
Maybe I am biased but he didn't look as comfortable as he usually does.
Is this a tell tale sign ? I don't know.

I also think the Vino strategy gives CSC something to think about too.
If there are other contenders (other than JU) this will force Basso to have to calculate and not confine his thoughts to just LA and JU.

Oke so popovitsj is a nobody, Azevedo is a nobody

Let me refresh youre mind: Azevedo got 5th last year working FOR LA! Imagine if he didn't work for LA. And popo is looking really good. Sooo IF there will be TOO MUCH attacks they will send someone dangerous on GC up the road so the Disco's don't need to control everything. They also did that in 2003, the year he got attacked by every team!

But youre right they are not allowed to win, but it does force other teams to control the race. Thrust me they are smart enough to don't give Azevedo and Popo 3/4 min........would be nice 2 disco's on the podium😎

Crankster said:

Why would it make sense to put Vino high on GC, then sacrifice him for Ullrich by making him an attack dog - hoping to wear LA down?

Also, I do not see anyone biting on the attack from Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli. It will be a strange move from Discovery, unless they just want someone to go up the road, then sit up and wait for Lance to pace him up the mountain. Or perhaps so they don't have to chase, but spending energy on a breakaway and then getting caught is worse then letting someone else go and let sprinters chase them and conserve energy and people.

There's no way that Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli will be allowed to win the Tour by beating Lance. So for Ullrich, Vino, Mayo, to cover an attack by a Disco guy is INSANE! They will gladly let it go, just like they would let other "nobodies" like Voekler go. Everyone from Disco except for Lance is a "nobody" as far as they are concerned.

Crankster said:

Why would it make sense to put Vino high on GC, then sacrifice him for Ullrich by making him an attack dog - hoping to wear LA down?

Also, I do not see anyone biting on the attack from Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli. It will be a strange move from Discovery, unless they just want someone to go up the road, then sit up and wait for Lance to pace him up the mountain. Or perhaps so they don't have to chase, but spending energy on a breakaway and then getting caught is worse then letting someone else go and let sprinters chase them and conserve energy and people.

There's no way that Popovich or Hincapie or Savoldelli will be allowed to win the Tour by beating Lance. So for Ullrich, Vino, Mayo, to cover an attack by a Disco guy is INSANE! They will gladly let it go, just like they would let other "nobodies" like Voekler go. Everyone from Disco except for Lance is a "nobody" as far as they are concerned.

The sense is not in having Vino high up. The sense is in having all the team work for Ullrich. One of the ways of beating Armstrong is by attacking him. If there are many riders who are close enough to worry the Discos into chasing, Disco will wear themselves out and not have as much in the tank to support Armstrong. One of the reasons for Armstrongs success is that he works far less than any other rider. His supposed superhuman efforts in the TT and the mountains are as much a result of his relative freshness as to his cycling ability.

If the other teams cannot put someone high enough in the rankings to worry Armstrong and Tmobile can have two thats advantage to T mobile.

Unfortunately problems will arise if Vino is high up and is called on to support Ullrich. The lack of unity in Tmobile (team unity is the reason for Armstrong's success) may let them down.

As far as biting on the attack goes, Disco will chase anyone they see as a threat, and, despite things falling Armstrong's way this year, he is by no means out of danger. There is still realistic threats from George, Popov, Vino, Basso, Salvoldeli and Ullrich. The list may even be longer. And at the moment Armstrong would send in his troups if any of them got away.

Your argument that Ullrich won't chase those riders is correct. He'll just have to follow the chasing Disco's..

limerickman said:

I am not convinced that LA is going as well as people might think.
I watched that TTT again : and LA was sweating profusely compared to the other riders on his team and riders in opposing teams.
Maybe I am biased but he didn't look as comfortable as he usually does.
Is this a tell tale sign ? I don't know.

Maybe, but remember that Armstrong is a very good actor too. When you think he is finished he resurges from hell. Remember years 2001 and 2003?

The way to beat Armstrong is for all the contenders to launch attacks on him, wave after wave if need be, leaving the best man to win in Paris. If everybody unites against Armstrong, they stand a good chance of succeeding. Anything short of that will likely be what we saw last year.

I agree with this... its the only way........ the problem you get with this is that riders who are trying to maintain there 3rd, 4th etc will chase down someone who is in second or third thus Armstrong will not have to chase as someone will do it for him......

rule62 said:

The way to beat Armstrong is for all the contenders to launch attacks on him, wave after wave if need be, leaving the best man to win in Paris. If everybody unites against Armstrong, they stand a good chance of succeeding. Anything short of that will likely be what we saw last year.

Very true. Who can forget CSC chasing down Ullrich last year? The fact that this looked like some sort of deal had been done between CSC and UPS made this even worse. Please CSC, don't join up with Lance again this year.

[font=Verdana]There statement after the stage was that they were trying to protect Basso's 2nd place.... but now we know it leaves a bad taste in ones mouth..... that’s why I liked Beloki in 2003… he said he didn’t want to ride for second or try to protect it.....he just wanted to win… what we did see of him showed that he wanted to do just that….. so Basso et al do the same this year and stop the games..... ! !
[/font]

alibat said:

Very true. Who can forget CSC chasing down Ullrich last year? The fact that this looked like some sort of deal had been done between CSC and UPS made this even worse. Please CSC, don't join up with Lance again this year.