Michael S said:But to get back on topic, I know of no way of predicting good sunsets.
As I said, there are some elements which can be predicted, but others
which can't. So sunsets are partially predictable, but there's no way
of knowing for sure what they are going to look like, except in one
particular case.
The most important element which is predictable is whether or not the
sky is clear beyond the horizon (to the east for sunrises, to the west
for sunsets) and to predict that you really need to look at a synoptic
chart to check for high pressure to the east or west of Britain. You
can't tell this by looking at a normal weather forecast, nor from
looking at the sky.
The other reasonably predictable element is cloud cover.
If it's a clear sunny day, then there most likely be a sunrise and set
(unless there's a bank of cloud on or beyond the horizon - i.e. a
frontal system that's just passed in the case of a sunrise, or a frontal
system moving in in the case of a sunset). This type of weather gives
rise to a cloudless sunrise/set. These are the most predictable, not
merely that they will happen but also what they will look like.
If the sky is totally overcast then there's not likely to be a sunrise
or set (unless the cloud cover doesn't extend completely to the horizon
and the sky is clear beyond). Overcast weather tends to occur between
warm and cold fronts so there's usually no chance of a sunrise/set in
those conditions.
If the weather forecast shows sun/cloud, then the potential exists for a
cloudy sunrise/set. These are the most variable and hard to predict.
Depending on exactly where the clouds are at the critical moment you
could have a stunner or it could die the grey death.
In the last case, an understanding of cloud types and how they relate to
frontal systems can be very useful. There's a particular sequence of
cloud types that occur as frontal systems approach and pass. If you
know exactly where the frontal systems and high pressure areas are at
the time of sunrise/set (synoptic charts again) then you can make a
reasonably good prediction about the chances of a sunrise/set, although
again, you can never be sure exactly what it will look like.
For a dramatic cloudy sunset the ideal conditions are just as a cold
front passes overhead with high pressure following on behind (to the
west). In other words, immediately after rain (cold front not warm
front). So if the weather forecast predicts rain in afternoon, clearing
in the evening to a clear night with a sunny day following, that's a
indication of a potentially good sunset. Probably followed by a naff
sunrise.
For a dramatic cloudy sunrise the ideal conditions are just as a warm
front approaches from the west after clear sunshine the day before. In
this case the forecast needs to predict a clear night, clouding over in
the morning with rain later. In this case the preceding sunset will
probably be rubbish.
My advice is to read up on cloud types, frontal systems and the cloud
sequences associated with those frontal systems. I learnt more about
landscape photography from studying weather books than from photographic
books!
I'd recommend getting hold of the following books if they're still
available;
Mountain Weather by David Pedgley.
Cicerone Press. ISBN 0902 363 22 0
Instant Weather Forecasting by Alan Watts.
Adlard Coles Limited. ISBN 0 229 11724 4
The latter is filled with cloud photos (not very good ones, but still)
and gives lots of information relating to each cloud type and the kind
of weather you can expect to follow. I have another excellent little
cloud handbook (small enough to carry everywhere) but I can't find it at
the moment so I can't give details. There may be other newer books of
the same type - photos of different cloud types and explanations of
each. Very useful for photographers and walkers alike.
Quoted message said:Of the three images I linked to earlier, two were of a relatively
cloudless sky, whereas one had a lot of cloud. They were taken from
the same location on three consecutive evenings, yet one is purple,
one is a deep orange, and one is a golden brown. On each day the
weather during the day had been very similar - generally still, warm,
sunny days. It seems quite unpredictable to me.
If those were taken in the order you showed them, then it looks to me as
if the first one (purple clouds) was taken after a cold front had
passed, the second (clear orange) was taken during high pressure (clear
sky to the west) and the third (golden brown) shows cirrus and thus
indicates that a warm front was moving in. This is a typical weather
cycle in the UK.
It's worth noting that not all frontal systems are the same. Most
frontal systems bring rain, but some can be very weak and no rain will
fall. In the case of your purple sunset, the clouds look typical of the
shower clouds that occur after a cold front has passed, but if it was a
weak front then there may not have been any showers. In the distance
you can see a yellow clear slot beneath the high bank of cirrus,
indicating the approach of high pressure.
Of course, it's easy to analyse photographs after the event and explain
retrospectively why they were predictable, that's the nature of
hindsight. But it is possible to learn from past photographs and that
can help you to predict similar situations in the future.
If you could get hold of synoptic charts for the days you took those
photographs, they may help to confirm (or not) what I've just said about
them. Anyone know of a good source of UK synoptic charts stretching
back the last 20 years or so?
Oh by the way, was that purple colour real, or was there a colour shift
in the film?
You say that each of these sunsets are quite different, and of course
the photographs are, but each was no doubt taken at a different time
relative to the sun setting. The look of a sunset can change enormously
as it develops, which is why I categorise different types. In the case
of your third "golden brown" shot, the sun hasn't actually set yet, so
it's a "pre-sunset" shot.
Prior to the sun setting the light gets yellower, then more orange, then
quite red (or deep pink) at the moment of sunset. Clouds then continue
to get redder as the sun drops further, whilst the sky gets a
progressively deeper blue. There can also be a purple colour which I've
noticed a few times, but I'm not sure what causes this. Often I've seen
the clear night sky turn from black to a deep purple before turning
blue. This usually happens about an hour before sunrise.
In the case of the Mumbles sunrise I shot yesterday, it started off with
very weak pink colours due to bank of hazy low cloud to the east, but it
improved once the sun broke over the top of the clouds, resulting in the
golden "post-sunrise" shot below, very similar to your "golden brown"
shot.
http://www.wildwales.fsnet.co.uk/misc/mumbles_sunrise.jpg
Quoted message said:The only way to
catch the sunsets is to be there and hope for the best. You'll have
to witness a lot of dull sunsets, but you'll also witness some
stunners.
Absolutely. But it's not the only way. Some sunsets are predictable.
I didn't predict this Worms Head sunset. Well I expected a sunset
because it was a clear sunny day, but I didn't know how it was going to
develop after the sun set, and I had no idea that my digital camera
would record an image that looked like this;
http://www.wildwales.fsnet.co.uk/misc/worm.jpg
But learning from that sunset, I was able to predict this one, exactly
the same type of clear sky with high pressure to the west that caused
the Worms Head sunset. Before I went out I used an astronomy program to
check the angle of the sun at sunset and one hour after, then used a
compass on a map to choose an appropriate subject and viewpoint. I also
checked my tide tables to determine where the tide would be, high tide
as it happened, which helped me to decide to use these rocks as a
foreground (usually there'd be a lot of beach behind them). As I say,
these kind of cloudless sunsets are quite easy to predict, but you get
the best shots around an hour after sunset.
http://www.wildwales.fsnet.co.uk/october/october23.html
One more prediction. If you want to photograph some fantastic sunrises
this autumn, the weather to look out for is high pressure just to the
west of Britain, resulting in gentle northerly winds (less than 10mph)
and the possibility of fog (temperature inversion). These kind of
weather conditions are quite common in October, but could happen in
September too, so watch those forecasts closely.
What the forecaster will say is that it will be a cold night with the
likelihood of frost, and the risk of widespread fog in the morning.
This fog will be described as a risk to motorists on their way to work.
What they won't say is that up in the mountains above the fog the
weather will be spectacular, and you'll get a fantastic sunrise above a
sea of fog. So you'll need to find yourself a good high viewpoint up in
the hills, with a clear view to the east, preferably overlooking a
valley that may fill with fog. Naturally it will be best to wild camp
there. Llyn y Fan Fawr is a superb location for this, I've photographed
many great sunrises there over the years;
http://www.wilderness-wales.co.uk/pg/md/lyfffs75.jpg
Paul
--
http://www.wilderness-wales.co.uk
http://www.wildwales.fsnet.co.uk