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Something More Upbeat

Started by Tom Kunich · · Last activity · 28 posts · 996 views

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Road Cycling
Published
24 July 2007
Last activity
13 August 2007
Original author
Tom Kunich
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  1. In article <[email hidden]>,

    Quoted message said:
    Howard Kveck said:

    Speaking of graph smoothing:

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_07/011682.php

    Hmmm. OTOH, it appears to have some data density.

    I'll take it!

    I think the WSJ line looks dumb, but I'm pretty sure Mark Thoma's line
    isn't a whole lot better, maybe worse.

    I'll concede that this is better evidence for the Laffer Squiggle than
    the Laffer Curve.

    --
    Ryan Cousineau [email hidden] http://www.wiredcola.com/
    "I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
    to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

  2. Ryan Cousineau said:

    [email hidden] wrote:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_07/011682.php

    Quoted message said:

    Hmmm. OTOH, it appears to have some data density.

    I'll take it!

    I think the WSJ line looks dumb, but I'm pretty sure Mark Thoma's line
    isn't a whole lot better, maybe worse.

    I'll concede that this is better evidence for the Laffer Squiggle than
    the Laffer Curve.

    Mark Thoma's line uses fewer free parameters and
    runs closer to the data points. Also, he probably
    constrained it to go close to (0,0), since that
    point is fixed. Anyone got the actual data table?

    I read in a discussion of the original plot that the
    Norway point included tax revenue from offshore oil
    on the Y-axis, but didn't include this in the tax
    rate on the X-axis. Supposedly, if you just
    consider non-oil tax rates and revenues, the Norway
    point comes down to the other Western European
    countries, like the UK. IOW, not only the Laffer
    curve fit, but the data, were bungled (or fudged).

    Ben

  3. Howard Kveck said:

    In article <[email hidden]>,
    SLAVE of THE STATE <[email hidden]> wrote:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    The Laffer curve has to exist a priori ...

    Well, the Laffer Curve is (and has been) something of a holy grail to supply-side
    adherents but it hasn't been shown yet to actually exist in real life.

    It isn't a holy grail. People use the idea as a subtle argument keep
    the tax rate down, even if it the argument is technically wrong for a
    given economy at some given time. It really isn't that big of a deal
    as it is a fairly straightforward and simple concept.

    It is actually at the extremes where the concept becomes more dubious,
    not the middling regions. (By that I mean it really is questionable
    if you can call the theoretical "societies" and "economies" at the
    theoretical extremes "the same ones" as "the middling ones." "The
    same ones" is so incredibly subjective, and the character differences
    at the extremes must be so very great. So if the general concept has
    a problem, that is where is lies, not criticism in the manner tax hogs
    project.)

    In more practical terms it must exist a priori. The reason it can't
    actually be empirically well demonstrated is because "society" and
    "the economy" isn't a toy model/experiment you can twiddle to get a
    satisfactory set of data on. A starting problem is "the economy" is a
    very loose and vague fiction. I'm not saying the terminology can't be
    useful, it can, but be careful. You can't ceteris paribus a "society"
    or an "economy" while doing your Laffer test tweeks.

    Why do you think all of them are drawing lines on top of lame data?
    They don't have good data -- so they resort to lameness. The reason
    you have problems with it is it has been cartoonized and politicized.
    It really isn't that big of a deal. Both sides are riddled with smoke
    and mirror presentation. It is [censored].

    All of this is irrelevent, as neither side really bothers to drive to
    answering the hard question of why any tax should be at any particular
    level.

    "It's the spending stupid." --BF, 1759

  4. Ryan Cousineau said:

    In article <[email hidden]>,

    Quoted message said:

    On Jul 27, 7:55 am, Howard Kveck <[email hidden]> wrote:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Speaking of graph smoothing:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_07/011682.php

    Quoted message said:

    Hmmm. OTOH, it appears to have some data density.

    I'll take it!

    I think the WSJ line looks dumb, but I'm pretty sure Mark Thoma's line
    isn't a whole lot better, maybe worse.

    It is not worse. The WSJ line doesn't even have the pretense of
    looking real. The phony Mark Thomas' line has better fooling quality.

  5. On Jul 27, 5:59 pm, "[email hidden]" <[email hidden]>

    Quoted message said:
    Ryan Cousineau said:
    Quoted message said:

    >http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_07/011682.php

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Hmmm. OTOH, it appears to have some data density.

    Quoted message said:

    I'll take it!

    Quoted message said:

    I think the WSJ line looks dumb, but I'm pretty sure Mark Thoma's line
    isn't a whole lot better, maybe worse.

    Quoted message said:

    I'll concede that this is better evidence for the Laffer Squiggle than
    the Laffer Curve.

    Mark Thoma's line uses fewer free parameters and
    runs closer to the data points. Also, he probably
    constrained it to go close to (0,0), since that
    point is fixed. Anyone got the actual data table?

    You like apples with your oranges?

  6. Howard Kveck said:

    Speaking of graph smoothing:
    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_07/011682.php

    Why does that remind me of a podium girl I checked recently ?

  7. Ryan Cousineau said:

    In article <[email hidden]>,

    Quoted message said:

    On Jul 27, 7:55 am, Howard Kveck <[email hidden]> wrote:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Speaking of graph smoothing:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_07/011682.php

    Quoted message said:

    Hmmm. OTOH, it appears to have some data density.

    I'll take it!

    I think the WSJ line looks dumb, but I'm pretty sure Mark Thoma's line
    isn't a whole lot better, maybe worse.

    I decided you're right -- it is worse. It looks like a linear
    regression. Using linear regresssion on something that is curved (by
    definition) is lame. Bad data, mixed data, bogus process... it makes
    plain old doctored data not look so bad. lol

  8. Donald Munro said:
    Howard Kveck said:

    Speaking of graph smoothing:
    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_07/011682.php

    Why does that remind me of a podium girl I checked recently ?

    http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.racing/search?hl=en&group=rec.bicycles.racing&q=%22tit+curve%22

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