So who wins?

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

<snip>

Quoted message said:

I keep coming back to Hamilton. He can time trial and
climb with anyone, and his team has been tearing it up all
spring. The question is "how bad does he want it?" Bad
enough. If he stays upright, he wins. And he'll be the
most hated man in "non-cycling America."

I won't nit-pick your analysis. But I will argue with one
conclusion. I don't believe the reaction will be what you
expect if Tyler wins. In that unlikely event, I think it
will be a very popular win. Even the most die-hard Lance
fans will likely say, "if Lance had to lose, I'm glad he
lost to Tyler."

Personally, I'd love to see Lance win #6. But if he doesn't
and Tyler wins, I'll be jumping up and down all the same.
And it's not just a nationalistic thing. I wouldn't feel
the same way if Levi won. No offense to Levi, but he hasn't
been the dramatic contender that Tyler has been over the
recent years.

Bob C.

Roland2k said:

MTT - Ullrich will lose the most time here. The others are
just too good at this discipline. I think it's too short
to produce big time gaps among the contenders. I doubt
they will be separated by more than 30 seconds.

Just as a counter argument, here is the profile from a Tour
TT from a few years back:
letour.frEtape12.swfOpen ↗

It's not a mountain TT, but there is a pretty good bump on
it. Alpe d'Huez is about a 1100m gain, the slog to Le Bessat
is a little over 800m. Here are the results: cyc-cyc-Open ↗
lingnews.com/results/archives/tour97/stage12.html

Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as climbing it
in a TT. Ullrich's lack of uphill explosiveness is not an
issue in a TT.

Even in the 2001 stage with 'the look', LANCE's gap came
almost entirely from his initial surge. I was over 6K from
the finish, LANCE had 1:45 when he came by me. He won by
1:59. Once they reached a steady state things were pretty
even. LANCE won the following day's mountain TT by 1:00.

If Ullrich has indeed pulled his [censored] together then I don't
think it is a given at all that he will lose any time in the
mountain TT.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

Quoted message said:

Leipheimer could show flashes of brilliance.

when he isn't slapping the [censored] out of Odessa?

-------------

all of you will be privileged to know, that I'm gearing up
to provide my cutting commentary on the tour, exclusively to
rbr on a daily basis during the big event.

who cares about safety?!... bottom line... recumbents arent
racing bikes... they are recumbents and so you cant race
them in a bike race...

why not?...

bottom line... recumbents arent racing bikes...

why not?...

because recumbents arent racing bikes... if they were racing
bikes, then they wouldnt be recumbents and you could race
them, but recumbents arent racing bikes, so you cant race
them in a bike race...

why not?...

[censored]... every time a recumbent issue comes up... just froget
it about the stupid recumbents... they arent racing bikes...

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and
Heras. I don't think anyone else is a serious contender,
but Basso, Sastre, and Leipheimer could show flashes of
brilliance.

Here's my two cents worth of analysis.

Mountains - They arrive late in this year's Tour, although
the two mountaintop finishes are relatively early, stages
12 and 13. Also, the mountains as a whole are not as
difficult as last year, and not likely to create huge time
gaps. So who do they favor? It's not rocket science.
Ullrich and Armstrong. Heras, Mayo, Hamilton, or another
strong climber may hold the lead after stage 13, but they
will likely surrender it by stage 19, at the latest. Any
attacks on stages 15, 17, or 18 will surely be pulled back
by USPS or T-Mobile. Random thoughts: If Hamilton has
about a 90-second lead after stage 13, he likely will not
be caught. If Amstrong has a 60-second lead after stage
13, he will win number 6.

TTT - The team time trial favors USPS, but not by much.
The new rule which limits losses to 2:30 really helps Mayo
and Heras. Armstrong, Ullrich, and Hamilton will be
separated by less than a minute after this stage.

MTT - Ullrich will lose the most time here. The others are
just too good at this discipline. I think it's too short
to produce big time gaps among the contenders. I doubt
they will be separated by more than 30 seconds.

ITT - Ullrich, Armstrong, and Hamilton will dust the
others. Ullrich wins, but it's close. This stage will only
affect the GC if Heras or Mayo is leading.

Team - USPS and T-Mobile are the strongest squads among
the contenders. Phonak looks good, but their experience is
questionable. EE and Liberty Seguros don't appear to be
the kind of teams that can control the peloton in a grand
tour. Edge here to Ullrich and Armstrong.

Conclusion: Ullrich is a horse. Armstrong is the Man.
Heras and Mayo are not ready yet. I keep coming back to
Hamilton. He can time trial and climb with anyone, and his
team has been tearing it up all spring. The question is
"how bad does he want it?" Bad enough. If he stays
upright, he wins. And he'll be the most hated man in "non-
cycling America."

Others: Sastre, Basso, or Julich could make some noise if
Riis can find some crosswinds. Although he's already
pulled it off once this year. I doubt if he gets away with
it again.

Roland

Roland I like your analysis, you pretty much hit the nail on
the head. I have this feeling it's going down to the last
ITT, shades of the '89 Tour. Ham and Heras knows LA pretty
well, so they might have a slight edge, especially in the
mountain stages. Strategies for riding the tour? Other than
the TTT and ITT, stay close to LA, I think Jan, Ham, Mayo,
Heras can all do that. -tom

On Thu, 24 Jun 2004 14:37:27 -0700, Tom Nakashima <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and
Heras. I don't think anyone else is a serious contender,
but Basso, Sastre, and Leipheimer could show flashes of
brilliance.

Here's my two cents worth of analysis.

Mountains - They arrive late in this year's Tour,
although the two mountaintop finishes are relatively
early, stages 12 and 13. Also, the mountains as a whole
are not as difficult as last year, and not likely to
create huge time gaps. So who do they favor? It's not
rocket science. Ullrich and Armstrong. Heras, Mayo,
Hamilton, or another strong climber may hold the lead
after stage 13, but they will likely surrender it by
stage 19, at the latest. Any attacks on stages 15, 17, or
18 will surely be pulled back by USPS or T-Mobile. Random
thoughts: If Hamilton has about a 90-second lead after
stage 13, he likely will not be caught. If Amstrong has a
60-second lead after stage 13, he will win number 6.

TTT - The team time trial favors USPS, but not by much.
The new rule which limits losses to 2:30 really helps
Mayo and Heras. Armstrong, Ullrich, and Hamilton will be
separated by less than a minute after this stage.

MTT - Ullrich will lose the most time here. The others
are just too good at this discipline. I think it's too
short to produce big time gaps among the contenders. I
doubt they will be separated by more than 30 seconds.

ITT - Ullrich, Armstrong, and Hamilton will dust the
others. Ullrich wins, but it's close. This stage will
only affect the GC if Heras or Mayo is leading.

Team - USPS and T-Mobile are the strongest squads among
the contenders. Phonak looks good, but their experience
is questionable. EE and Liberty Seguros don't appear to
be the kind of teams that can control the peloton in a
grand tour. Edge here to Ullrich and Armstrong.

Conclusion: Ullrich is a horse. Armstrong is the Man.
Heras and Mayo are not ready yet. I keep coming back to
Hamilton. He can time trial and climb with anyone, and
his team has been tearing it up all spring. The question
is "how bad does he want it?" Bad enough. If he stays
upright, he wins. And he'll be the most hated man in "non-
cycling America."

Others: Sastre, Basso, or Julich could make some noise if
Riis can find some crosswinds. Although he's already
pulled it off once this year. I doubt if he gets away
with it again.

Roland

Roland I like your analysis, you pretty much hit the nail
on the head. I have this feeling it's going down to the
last ITT, shades of the '89 Tour. Ham and Heras knows LA
pretty well, so they might have a slight edge, especially
in the mountain stages. Strategies for riding the tour?
Other than the TTT and ITT, stay close to LA, I think Jan,
Ham, Mayo, Heras can all do that. -tom

I think Mayo and Heras will have to attack in the mountains,
as they need to gain time on Jan and Lance to pad the ITT.
It should be an interesting Tour.

--
Bob in CT Remove ".x" to reply

In article <[email hidden]>, psycholist

Quoted message said:

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

<snip>

Quoted message said:

I keep coming back to Hamilton. He can time trial and
climb with anyone, and his team has been tearing it up
all spring. The question is "how bad does he want it?"
Bad enough. If he stays upright, he wins. And he'll be
the most hated man in "non-cycling America."

I won't nit-pick your analysis. But I will argue with one
conclusion. I don't believe the reaction will be what you
expect if Tyler wins. In that unlikely event, I think it
will be a very popular win. Even the most die-hard Lance
fans will likely say, "if Lance had to lose, I'm glad he
lost to Tyler."

Actually, if Lance loses and Tyler wins they'll be glad he
lost to another American, and a nice guy at that. The
American media would love it and the Frnech media would be
more excited about the latest new brand of filterless
cigarette.

-WG

In article <[email hidden]>,
[email hidden] (Roland2k) wrote:

(snipper)

Quoted message said:

TTT - The team time trial favors USPS, but not by much.
The new rule which limits losses to 2:30 really helps Mayo
and Heras. Armstrong, Ullrich, and Hamilton will be
separated by less than a minute after this stage.

Don't underestimate Heras in the TTT. His team is run by
Saiz, who used to run Once. He knows how to get his guys
to do a TTT. I'd suspect they'll be near the front on
this one. Mayo's DS was talking about working much harder
on the TTT, too, so they may not lose as much as you
might think (even with the Mulligan TTT in effect).

--
tanx, Howard

"The fickleness of fame and fortune's
caprice Together changed the life of Mason
Reese" Alice Donut

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

The one who gets there in the shortest amount of time.

--
Steven L. Sheffield stevens at veloworks dot com veloworks
at worldnet dot ay tea tee dot net bellum pax est libertas
servitus est ignoratio vis est ess ay ell tea ell ay kay ee
sea aye tee why you ti ay aitch aitch tee tea pea colon [for
word] slash [four ward] slash double-you double-yew double-
ewe dot veloworks dot com [four word] slash

Roland2k said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo,
and Heras.

Wrong. Anything can, and will, happen. For example, consider
that Phonak has never come to the Tour de France before.
What if there's a rider on the team who gets incredibly
inspired by being at the Tour for the first time, and next
thing you know Sportsbook.com's shills all get to spend
August in Panama?

There's also Michele Scarponi, a talented and extremely
handsome young rider who won the Peace Race this year, and
whose Domina Vacanze team has made it into the Tour de
France for the first time on Cipollini's coattails.

Haimar Zubeldia placed higher last year on GC than Iban Mayo
did. Not only that, but Mayo has already stamped his
authority all over May and June and come July, he may be
stamped out. And maybe Zubeldia will be fresh as a daisy.

-Sonarrat.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Bob Schwartz
Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as climbing it in a TT. Ullrich's lack of uphill explosiveness is not an issue in a TT.

Exactly right. I believe the Alpe d'Huez ITT actually favours Jan (& Mayo & Hamilton & Heras) over Lance. Jan can hold a high constant speed on the ascent and should at the least match Lance's time.

"Steven L. Sheffield" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The one who gets there in the shortest amount of time.

Perhaps not. If Armstrong wins a few stages and finishes in
Paris with, say, six seconds over Ullrich, it has probably
taken longer for him to finish. And the new TTT rules can
mess things up even more: if Ullrich is second in the TTT
but his team finishes 1 minute later then US Postal, he can
win the tour by gainig 40 seconds and still have taken more
time to ride.

Jonathan.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Roland2k
.

Mountains - They arrive late in this year's Tour, although
the two mountaintop finishes are relatively early, stages
12 and 13. Also, the mountains as a whole are not as
difficult as last year, and not likely to create huge time
gaps. So who do they favor? It's not rocket science.
Ullrich and Armstrong.

Well, that seems logical, doesn't it? But the last twenty years it seems that the more mountainous a TdF the worse the light-weigths do. I blame that on their ability to recover. The more difficult the circumstances (weather, course etc) the better for the strong men, Armstong/Ulrich.

Also; a dificult stage tends the contenders to wait their attacks till the last mountain. The difficulty of the stage doesn't say everything about the timegaps. The racers are the ones who decide. As long as they stick to the *wait till the last climb* tactics, differences will remain small.

A prediction?

1. Armstrong as he is by far the most complete racer.
2. Jan as I don't see where he can make the difference
3. Anyone of the usual suspects.

I am curious about Mayo, but it seems he peaked already... then again, it is very possible he is just that good this year and crush the competition. If someone beats Armstrong it is Mayo. He's a bit of a joker for me.

Truth is I don't see Lance loose. But I (almost everyone!) thought the same of Miguel Indurain in his bid for the sixth.

Jonathan v.d. Sluis said:

"Steven L. Sheffield" <[email hidden]> schreef in
bericht "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The one who gets there in the shortest amount of time.

Perhaps not. If Armstrong wins a few stages and finishes
in Paris with, say, six seconds over Ullrich, it has
probably taken longer for him to finish.

Sure, time bonuses/penalties and "same time" rules make
Steven's statement false. But "probably taken longer"?
That I don't understand. There's a chance, less than 50%,
that Ullrich rode for less time, unless there is
compelling reason to believe the bonuses and s.t. rules
tend to favor LA.

Dan

The person who has the least go wrong.

That is my golden rule for stage races. It's not necessarily
the best or strongest who wins, but those who have the most
consistent luck.

Sonarrat said:

There's also Michele Scarponi, a talented and extremely
handsome young rider who won the Peace Race this year, and
whose Domina Vacanze team has made it into the Tour de
France for the first time on Cipollini's coattails.

I will be watching Scarponi carefully. What do you think,
top 10? I say 10th.

patch70 said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as
climbing it in a TT. Ullrich's lack of uphill
explosiveness is not an issue in a TT.

Exactly right. I believe the Alpe d'Huez ITT actually
favours Jan (& Mayo & Hamilton & Heras) over Lance. Jan
can hold a high constant speed on the ascent and should at
the least match Lance's time.

Like he did in the MTT in 2001?

Sonarrat <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Roland2k said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and
Heras.

Wrong. Anything can, and will, happen.

Of course, anything CAN happen. Anything could have happened
in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003. As I stated, these are the
serious contenders
IMO.

Quoted message said:

For example, consider that Phonak has never come to the
Tour de France before. What if there's a rider on the team
who gets incredibly inspired by being at the Tour for the
first time, and next thing you know Sportsbook.com's
shills all get to spend August in Panama?

How did we get on Panama?

Quoted message said:

There's also Michele Scarponi, a talented and extremely
handsome young rider who won the Peace Race this year, and
whose Domina Vacanze team has made it into the Tour de
France for the first time on Cipollini's coattails.

Handsome? That explains why Rominger never won.

Quoted message said:

Haimar Zubeldia placed higher last year on GC than Iban
Mayo did. Not only that, but Mayo has already stamped his
authority all over May and June and come July, he may be
stamped out. And maybe Zubeldia will be fresh as a daisy.

Lotsa maybes. I was focusing on those riders with fewer
maybes. I am all for an underdog challenging the
favorites, but this post was focused on the favorites.
Thanks for the comments.

Quoted message said:

-Sonarrat.

gym gravity said:

patch70 wrote:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as
climbing it in a TT. Ullrich's lack of uphill
explosiveness is not an issue in a TT.

Exactly right. I believe the Alpe d'Huez ITT actually
favours Jan (& Mayo & Hamilton & Heras) over Lance. Jan
can hold a high constant speed on the ascent and should
at the least match Lance's time.

Like he did in the MTT in 2001?

If Jan and LANCE both come into it with the same form as
they had in 2001 then, you are correct, the result will
be the same.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]