So who wins?

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

<snip>

Quoted message said:

I keep coming back to Hamilton. He can time trial
and climb with anyone, and his team has been tearing it up all spring.
The question is "how bad does he want it?" Bad enough. If he stays
upright, he wins. And he'll be the most hated man in "non-cycling
America."

I won't nit-pick your analysis. But I will argue with one conclusion. I
don't believe the reaction will be what you expect if Tyler wins. In that
unlikely event, I think it will be a very popular win. Even the most
die-hard Lance fans will likely say, "if Lance had to lose, I'm glad he lost
to Tyler."

Personally, I'd love to see Lance win #6. But if he doesn't and Tyler wins,
I'll be jumping up and down all the same. And it's not just a nationalistic
thing. I wouldn't feel the same way if Levi won. No offense to Levi, but
he hasn't been the dramatic contender that Tyler has been over the recent
years.

Bob C.

Roland2k said:

MTT - Ullrich will lose the most time here. The others are just too
good at this discipline. I think it's too short to produce big time
gaps among the contenders. I doubt they will be separated by more than
30 seconds.

Just as a counter argument, here is the profile from a Tour TT
from a few years back:
http://www.letour.fr/tour97us/july18/Etape12.swf

It's not a mountain TT, but there is a pretty good bump on it.
Alpe d'Huez is about a 1100m gain, the slog to Le Bessat is a
little over 800m. Here are the results:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/tour97/stage12.html

Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as climbing it in
a TT. Ullrich's lack of uphill explosiveness is not an issue in
a TT.

Even in the 2001 stage with 'the look', LANCE's gap came almost
entirely from his initial surge. I was over 6K from the finish,
LANCE had 1:45 when he came by me. He won by 1:59. Once they
reached a steady state things were pretty even. LANCE won the
following day's mountain TT by 1:00.

If Ullrich has indeed pulled his [censored] together then I don't think
it is a given at all that he will lose any time in the mountain
TT.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

Quoted message said:

Leipheimer could show flashes of brilliance.

when he isn't slapping the [censored] out of Odessa?

-------------

all of you will be privileged to know, that I'm gearing up to provide my
cutting commentary on the tour, exclusively to rbr on a daily basis during
the big event.

who cares about safety?!... bottom line... recumbents arent racing bikes...
they are recumbents and so you cant race them in a bike race...

why not?...

bottom line... recumbents arent racing bikes...

why not?...

because recumbents arent racing bikes... if they were racing bikes, then they
wouldnt be recumbents and you could race them, but recumbents arent racing
bikes, so you cant race them in a bike race...

why not?...

[censored]... every time a recumbent issue comes up... just froget it about the
stupid recumbents... they arent racing bikes...

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and Heras. I don't
think anyone else is a serious contender, but Basso, Sastre, and
Leipheimer could show flashes of brilliance.

Here's my two cents worth of analysis.

Mountains - They arrive late in this year's Tour, although the two
mountaintop finishes are relatively early, stages 12 and 13. Also, the
mountains as a whole are not as difficult as last year, and not likely
to create huge time gaps. So who do they favor? It's not rocket
science. Ullrich and Armstrong. Heras, Mayo, Hamilton, or another
strong climber may hold the lead after stage 13, but they will likely
surrender it by stage 19, at the latest. Any attacks on stages 15, 17,
or 18 will surely be pulled back by USPS or T-Mobile. Random thoughts:
If Hamilton has about a 90-second lead after stage 13, he likely will
not be caught. If Amstrong has a 60-second lead after stage 13, he
will win number 6.

TTT - The team time trial favors USPS, but not by much. The new rule
which limits losses to 2:30 really helps Mayo and Heras. Armstrong,
Ullrich, and Hamilton will be separated by less than a minute after
this stage.

MTT - Ullrich will lose the most time here. The others are just too
good at this discipline. I think it's too short to produce big time
gaps among the contenders. I doubt they will be separated by more than
30 seconds.

ITT - Ullrich, Armstrong, and Hamilton will dust the others. Ullrich
wins, but it's close. This stage will only affect the GC if Heras or
Mayo is leading.

Team - USPS and T-Mobile are the strongest squads among the
contenders. Phonak looks good, but their experience is questionable.
EE and Liberty Seguros don't appear to be the kind of teams that can
control the peloton in a grand tour. Edge here to Ullrich and
Armstrong.

Conclusion: Ullrich is a horse. Armstrong is the Man. Heras and Mayo
are not ready yet. I keep coming back to Hamilton. He can time trial
and climb with anyone, and his team has been tearing it up all spring.
The question is "how bad does he want it?" Bad enough. If he stays
upright, he wins. And he'll be the most hated man in "non-cycling
America."

Others: Sastre, Basso, or Julich could make some noise if Riis can
find some crosswinds. Although he's already pulled it off once this
year. I doubt if he gets away with it again.

Roland

Roland I like your analysis, you pretty much hit the nail on the head. I
have this feeling it's going down to the last ITT, shades of the '89 Tour.
Ham and Heras knows LA pretty well, so they might have a slight edge,
especially in the mountain stages. Strategies for riding the tour? Other
than the TTT and ITT, stay close to LA, I think Jan, Ham, Mayo, Heras can
all do that.
-tom

On Thu, 24 Jun 2004 14:37:27 -0700, Tom Nakashima <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and Heras. I don't
think anyone else is a serious contender, but Basso, Sastre, and
Leipheimer could show flashes of brilliance.

Here's my two cents worth of analysis.

Mountains - They arrive late in this year's Tour, although the two
mountaintop finishes are relatively early, stages 12 and 13. Also, the
mountains as a whole are not as difficult as last year, and not likely
to create huge time gaps. So who do they favor? It's not rocket
science. Ullrich and Armstrong. Heras, Mayo, Hamilton, or another
strong climber may hold the lead after stage 13, but they will likely
surrender it by stage 19, at the latest. Any attacks on stages 15, 17,
or 18 will surely be pulled back by USPS or T-Mobile. Random thoughts:
If Hamilton has about a 90-second lead after stage 13, he likely will
not be caught. If Amstrong has a 60-second lead after stage 13, he
will win number 6.

TTT - The team time trial favors USPS, but not by much. The new rule
which limits losses to 2:30 really helps Mayo and Heras. Armstrong,
Ullrich, and Hamilton will be separated by less than a minute after
this stage.

MTT - Ullrich will lose the most time here. The others are just too
good at this discipline. I think it's too short to produce big time
gaps among the contenders. I doubt they will be separated by more than
30 seconds.

ITT - Ullrich, Armstrong, and Hamilton will dust the others. Ullrich
wins, but it's close. This stage will only affect the GC if Heras or
Mayo is leading.

Team - USPS and T-Mobile are the strongest squads among the
contenders. Phonak looks good, but their experience is questionable.
EE and Liberty Seguros don't appear to be the kind of teams that can
control the peloton in a grand tour. Edge here to Ullrich and
Armstrong.

Conclusion: Ullrich is a horse. Armstrong is the Man. Heras and Mayo
are not ready yet. I keep coming back to Hamilton. He can time trial
and climb with anyone, and his team has been tearing it up all spring.
The question is "how bad does he want it?" Bad enough. If he stays
upright, he wins. And he'll be the most hated man in "non-cycling
America."

Others: Sastre, Basso, or Julich could make some noise if Riis can
find some crosswinds. Although he's already pulled it off once this
year. I doubt if he gets away with it again.

Roland

Roland I like your analysis, you pretty much hit the nail on the head. I
have this feeling it's going down to the last ITT, shades of the '89
Tour.
Ham and Heras knows LA pretty well, so they might have a slight edge,
especially in the mountain stages. Strategies for riding the tour?
Other
than the TTT and ITT, stay close to LA, I think Jan, Ham, Mayo, Heras can
all do that.
-tom

I think Mayo and Heras will have to attack in the mountains, as they need
to gain time on Jan and Lance to pad the ITT. It should be an interesting
Tour.

--
Bob in CT
Remove ".x" to reply

In article <[email hidden]>, psycholist

Quoted message said:

"Roland2k" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

<snip>

Quoted message said:

I keep coming back to Hamilton. He can time trial
and climb with anyone, and his team has been tearing it up all spring.
The question is "how bad does he want it?" Bad enough. If he stays
upright, he wins. And he'll be the most hated man in "non-cycling
America."

I won't nit-pick your analysis. But I will argue with one conclusion. I
don't believe the reaction will be what you expect if Tyler wins. In that
unlikely event, I think it will be a very popular win. Even the most
die-hard Lance fans will likely say, "if Lance had to lose, I'm glad he lost
to Tyler."

Actually, if Lance loses and Tyler wins they'll be glad he lost to
another American, and a nice guy at that. The American media would love
it and the Frnech media would be more excited about the latest new
brand of filterless cigarette.

-WG

In article <[email hidden]>,
[email hidden] (Roland2k) wrote:

(snipper)

Quoted message said:

TTT - The team time trial favors USPS, but not by much. The new rule
which limits losses to 2:30 really helps Mayo and Heras. Armstrong,
Ullrich, and Hamilton will be separated by less than a minute after
this stage.

Don't underestimate Heras in the TTT. His team is run by Saiz, who used
to run Once. He knows how to get his guys to do a TTT. I'd suspect they'll
be near the front on this one. Mayo's DS was talking about working much
harder on the TTT, too, so they may not lose as much as you might think
(even with the Mulligan TTT in effect).

--
tanx,
Howard

"The fickleness of fame and fortune's caprice
Together changed the life of Mason Reese"
Alice Donut

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

The one who gets there in the shortest amount of time.

--
Steven L. Sheffield
stevens at veloworks dot com
veloworks at worldnet dot ay tea tee dot net
bellum pax est libertas servitus est ignoratio vis est
ess ay ell tea ell ay kay ee sea aye tee why you ti ay aitch
aitch tee tea pea colon [for word] slash [four ward] slash double-you
double-yew double-ewe dot veloworks dot com [four word] slash

Roland2k said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and Heras.

Wrong. Anything can, and will, happen. For example, consider that
Phonak has never come to the Tour de France before. What if there's a
rider on the team who gets incredibly inspired by being at the Tour for
the first time, and next thing you know Sportsbook.com's shills all get
to spend August in Panama?

There's also Michele Scarponi, a talented and extremely handsome young
rider who won the Peace Race this year, and whose Domina Vacanze team
has made it into the Tour de France for the first time on Cipollini's
coattails.

Haimar Zubeldia placed higher last year on GC than Iban Mayo did. Not
only that, but Mayo has already stamped his authority all over May and
June and come July, he may be stamped out. And maybe Zubeldia will be
fresh as a daisy.

-Sonarrat.

Bob Schwartz said:

Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as climbing it in a TT.
Ullrich's lack of uphill explosiveness is not an issue in a TT.

Exactly right. I believe the Alpe d'Huez ITT actually favours Jan (&
Mayo & Hamilton & Heras) over Lance. Jan can hold a high constant speed
on the ascent and should at the least match Lance's time.

--

"Steven L. Sheffield" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The one who gets there in the shortest amount of time.

Perhaps not. If Armstrong wins a few stages and finishes in Paris with, say,
six seconds over Ullrich, it has probably taken longer for him to finish.
And the new TTT rules can mess things up even more: if Ullrich is second in
the TTT but his team finishes 1 minute later then US Postal, he can win the
tour by gainig 40 seconds and still have taken more time to ride.

Jonathan.

Jonathan v.d. Sluis said:

"Steven L. Sheffield" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The one who gets there in the shortest amount of time.

Perhaps not. If Armstrong wins a few stages and finishes in Paris with, say,
six seconds over Ullrich, it has probably taken longer for him to finish.

Sure, time bonuses/penalties and "same time" rules make Steven's statement false.
But "probably taken longer"? That I don't understand. There's a chance,
less than 50%, that Ullrich rode for less time, unless there is compelling
reason to believe the bonuses and s.t. rules tend to favor LA.

Dan

Roland2k said:

.
Mountains - They arrive late in this year's Tour, although the two
mountaintop finishes are relatively early, stages 12 and 13. Also, the
mountains as a whole are not as difficult as last year, and not likely
to create huge time gaps. So who do they favor? It's not rocket science.
Ullrich and Armstrong.

Well, that seems logical, doesn't it? But the last twenty years it seems
that the more mountainous a TdF the worse the light-weigths do. I blame
that on their ability to recover. The more difficult the circumstances
(weather, course etc) the better for the strong men, Armstong/Ulrich.

Also; a dificult stage tends the contenders to wait their attacks till
the last mountain. The difficulty of the stage doesn't say everything
about the timegaps. The racers are the ones who decide. As long as they
stick to the *wait till the last climb* tactics, differences will
remain small.

A prediction?

1. Armstrong as he is by far the most complete racer.
2. Jan as I don't see where he can make the difference
3. Anyone of the usual suspects.

I am curious about Mayo, but it seems he peaked already... then again,
it is very possible he is just that good this year and crush the
competition. If someone beats Armstrong it is Mayo. He's a bit of a
joker for me.

Truth is I don't see Lance loose. But I (almost everyone!) thought the
same of Miguel Indurain in his bid for the sixth.

--

The person who has the least go wrong.

That is my golden rule for stage races. It's not necessarily the best
or strongest who wins, but those who have the most consistent luck.

patch70 said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as climbing it in a TT.
Ullrich's lack of uphill explosiveness is not an issue in a TT.

Exactly right. I believe the Alpe d'Huez ITT actually favours Jan (&
Mayo & Hamilton & Heras) over Lance. Jan can hold a high constant speed
on the ascent and should at the least match Lance's time.

Like he did in the MTT in 2001?

Sonarrat said:

There's also Michele Scarponi, a talented and extremely handsome young
rider who won the Peace Race this year, and whose Domina Vacanze team
has made it into the Tour de France for the first time on Cipollini's
coattails.

I will be watching Scarponi carefully. What do you think, top 10? I
say 10th.

Sonarrat <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Roland2k said:

The choices are Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, and Heras.

Wrong. Anything can, and will, happen.

Of course, anything CAN happen. Anything could have happened in 2000,
2001, 2002, and 2003. As I stated, these are the serious contenders
IMO.

Quoted message said:

For example, consider that
Phonak has never come to the Tour de France before. What if there's a
rider on the team who gets incredibly inspired by being at the Tour for
the first time, and next thing you know Sportsbook.com's shills all get
to spend August in Panama?

How did we get on Panama?

Quoted message said:

There's also Michele Scarponi, a talented and extremely handsome young
rider who won the Peace Race this year, and whose Domina Vacanze team
has made it into the Tour de France for the first time on Cipollini's
coattails.

Handsome? That explains why Rominger never won.

Quoted message said:

Haimar Zubeldia placed higher last year on GC than Iban Mayo did. Not
only that, but Mayo has already stamped his authority all over May and
June and come July, he may be stamped out. And maybe Zubeldia will be
fresh as a daisy.

Lotsa maybes. I was focusing on those riders with fewer maybes. I am
all for an underdog challenging the favorites, but this post was
focused on the favorites. Thanks for the comments.

Quoted message said:

-Sonarrat.

gym gravity said:

patch70 wrote:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Bob Schwartz said:

Climbing a mountain in a pack is not the same as climbing it in a TT.
Ullrich's lack of uphill explosiveness is not an issue in a TT.

Exactly right. I believe the Alpe d'Huez ITT actually favours Jan (&
Mayo & Hamilton & Heras) over Lance. Jan can hold a high constant speed
on the ascent and should at the least match Lance's time.

Like he did in the MTT in 2001?

If Jan and LANCE both come into it with the same form as they
had in 2001 then, you are correct, the result will be the same.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]