Simple question regarding drafting in a flat crit

daveydave said:

....I'm not looking for an exact answer or a calculator, just an estimate. Such as, I don't typically ride more than x MPH on my hard solo rides, but I'm able to stay with a 24 to 26mph group for Y minutes....

O.K., I often ride 23-26mph during 20 minute L4(Threshold) efforts depending on the wind and hold 20-22 mph for hour to hour and a half L3(Tempo) efforts which tend to be loops. These rides often end up being 19-20 mph door to door including warmup and cooldown. My fastest crit this past season was mostly flat with one short uphill and a longer backstretch descent. We averaged 25 mph for the entire race but 26.3 mph for the first four minutes and 27.0 in a break for the last four minutes.

More importantly, typical 20 minute L4 efforts are between 270 and 305 watts solo and the fast periods of this and other crits had Normalized Power hovering around 285 watts. IOW, the speeds were higher than typical training but the effective sustained power was less but also less steady. Peak power during fast crits often exceeds 900 watts not including preems or the final sprint and those bursts happen a few times during the ride with maybe ten spikes over 800 watts in 45 minutes.

-Dave

This is a variation of the "average speed" question which pops up here all the time.

Average speed in bike racing, particularly in crits, is not all that relevant. Its the accellerations that do the damage.

That said, it sounds like you want some sort of barometer to measure whether you will be fast enough. I am a weak Cat 4 but have been racing for 4 years now. Typical flat crits would average about 25 to 27 mph with frequent accellerations over 30 mph. The sprint is somewhere around 35 mph.

I am also a fairly weak time trialist in comparison to other cat 4s. I did one time trial last year on an 8 mile flat out and back course with a strong headwind on the outbound leg. I averaged 23.6 mph. The cat 4 winner was over 27 mph. If I go out riding by myself on a "rolling course" I generally average around 18 mph. If I ride 20-30 miles on a flat bike path, I will generally average about 20-21 mph while riding tempo.

As you can see, my numbers are not spectacular and I am a somewhat competant racer when in shape. All you have to do is bust your ass during the winter and learn from your mistakes in every race.

Frigo's Luggage said:

I am also a fairly weak time trialist in comparison to other cat 4s. I did one time trial last year on an 8 mile flat out and back course with a strong headwind on the outbound leg. I averaged 23.6 mph. The cat 4 winner was over 27 mph.

Was that cat 4 winner using a TT bike?

He was using a standard road bike with clip-ons, disk on the back and a carbon wheel on the front. Nothing all that fancy.

Get the CTS criterium video. I was very happy with the way it simulates the seemingly endless accelerations and the lack of adequate recovery. Practice sub-maximal sprints repeatedly, with little rest. Be ready to come close to a sprint coming out of every single turn.

P.S. the chances of everyone taking pulls in a race is little to none. Your goal should be not to pull, or to pull as little as possible, but still stay within the first 10-15 riders throughout the entire race. Then just sprint as hard as you can at the end. Do not be tempted to chase every break you see, especially in a 4/5 race. That is a mistake a lot of people make, so let others make it and close the gap instead.