Wally said:Clive George said:Quoted message said:He was a local
Quoted message said:So he probably knew the phases, so wouldn't have been jam.
Until he meets some other hero who jumps the opposing lights 'because he
can'.
Oh spare me the handwringing and try applying what you actually know
from the data.
Lets take London as an example
About 1 cyclist a week is killed in London. A tiny minorty will be due
to existing medical conditions. A quarter are due to being crushed by a
truck turnign across them. This leaves say 35 per year.
If the RAC are to be believed then approx 70% of cyclists jump red
lights. There are about 50,000 cyclists in London giving about 35,000
red light jumpers. So in a year we can see that at the absolute max you
have a maximum 1 in 1000 chance of being killed in any given year,
assuming that all the excess risk is due to red light jumping.
So we can quantify an upper bound on jammability which is, assuming a
cycling lifetime of 50 years (probably a bit short given the reading of
the obits column in Cycle), a minimum of 20 lifetimes before jam.
approx 80 for a normal cycling life.
Put this in context. Four lifetimes before dying of a thrombotic event
(heart attack/stroke). Probably extend that with appropriate exercise
such as cycle commuting. Three lifetimes before dying of cancer
(possibly push that to five with appropriate diet/exercise).
Don't think red light jumping really rates as far as that goes in terms
of risk.
Oh, and something like three lifetimes before being involved in a fatal
road accident (as participant, not necessarily victim.
So spare the claptrap about red light jumping being a death wish. It
doesn't do very much to raise the overall odds. More likely to give the
guy in the GT40 a heart attack from appoplexy, but hey, that's his
problem.
...d