Quoted message said:Neil Brooks said:
I continue to watch you:
- start with a conclusion and back out to its "support"
- accuse people who think helmet use is sensible of being
doom-and-gloom prophets, doing *horrible* things to the activity that
we all love.
These are not very appealing traits of yours, IMHO.
?? ISTM, your first objection complains about a standard method of
explanation: saying "Here's what we know, and here's why." Conclusion,
then support.
And regarding your second objection, surely you can't disagree that
helmet promoters frequently say that cycling is dangerous?
I disagree with your repeated implication that anybody who thinks that
a helmet can be beneficial in reducing or eliminating head injuries is
characterizing cycling in the loaded and alarmist way that you are
accusing them of: as "dangerous."
Quoted message said:If you like, I can quote you the latest article from our newspaper, just three
days old... saying that "Helmets are needed by all riders" and quoting
the usual out-of-context numbers to "prove" that cycling is dangerous.
I wouldn't like, but . . . if you find some purpose in quoting it, by
all means, do. If not, then write to the author and tell him how your
damaging ouru sport. Then tell me how he's damaging our sport.
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:From the review of *the actual studies* [1] that I've been able to
endeavor, the following seem abundantly clear:
1) Wear a helmet
Just for bicycling? Or for all activities with a similar risk of
serious head injury? Like, for example, walking in a city?
When I log on to rec.leisure.citywalking, I'll let you know. How do
you like your Red Herring, Frank? Smoked or grilled?
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:2) Make sure it fits properly
Because if it does fit properly, it will be slightly less ineffective?
And there you go: preconception precluding any possible learning. The
studies I've seen indicate that the maximum benefit (reduction in
incidence and/or severity of injury afforded by helmet use) can be
mitigated by wearing an improperly fitted helmet. IOW: *less
helpful*.
Frank, do you just *scream* if a medicine prescribed for you says
"Take with food?" Do you *steadfastly refuse* to take that medicine?
All that means is: the proven efficacy of this drug is dependent upon
its use in the following manner.
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:3) Do your best not to ride *less* safely *just because* you have a
helmet on.
I agree with this. But it's a _very_ rarely stated in helmet promotion
literature!
But that's not what rec.bicycles.misc *is* and yet you still come
across as defending against an argument that is not oft being made to
those who aren't making it.
Just tell people to remember that--if an argument is being made by
somebody who stands to profit from its adoption, it should be
evaluated in that light.
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:The science that I've seen *overwhelmingly* indicates that you're less
likely to hurt your head this way if you're in an accident.
Specifics, Neil?
What I've *never* seen is a *reasonably scientific* (that's not a
dismissal of anything not supporting a position. It's a commonly
established process) that shows that a well-fitting bike helmet has
*no* effect, or a negative effect, on reduction of frequency and/or
severity of head injuries.
Based on available data, telling people that helmets don't help you
seems irresponsible. Telling people that *mandating* helmet use is
wrong-headed makes *more* sense (to me). Telling people that they
should beware the helmet salespeople advocating mandatory usage makes
even *more* sense. But confusing those ideologies with the underlying
issue--all things being equal (there's that darned 'control' thing
again), do helmets reduce head injury--is misleading and, imho,
irresponsible without supporting data.
Quoted message said:If you look only at case-control studies, with their
self-selected subjects and inadequate accounting for confounding
variables, what you say may be true - but that's some seriously bad
science. It's best exemplified by the Thompson & Rivara paper of 1989,
which predicted 85% reduction in head injury. But it wouldn't be
accepted for any other similar measure.
Then discount an 85% number by . . . say 85% (or 99%, if that helps)
to account for some influence of confouding variables. Or you find
some merit for dismissing the study as fatally flawed *based* on those
variables.
If you choose the discount method (.85 - (.85*.85)) (probably best
based on the methodologies of the studies I've seen) You still wind up
with 12.75% reduction in head injury. Use 99% as the discount rate
and you get a 0.85% reduction.
I'm not going to quibble with the resulting numbers. Too much room
for error. What *I'm* looking for--and suspect that many others,
especially newbies, are, too, is directional info supported by
reasonable science. *Am I* safer. Next question--"By how much"--is
clearly more difficult, but I still go back to my usual line:
And the downside to their elective use is???
Quoted message said:If you look at large population data, you find nothing close to that
85% benefit;
Thus the discount concept.
Quoted message said:in fact, you typically find no per-rider benefit for bike
helmets.
Huh?
Quoted message said:IOW, remove the bias of self selection and the benefit goes
away.
But this is all beyond the point. I imagine hiking helmets could be
sold with the same nonsense that sells biking helmets (and I wouldn't
put it past them to try). But even if there were 100% benefit, do we
_really_ need hiking helmets??
When you're drawn out, you get far more accurate, but must somebody
always draw you out?
Your position *against* mandatory helmet use makes sense, to me.
Stick with that position, rather than fighting every single time
somebody asks a helmet question, and you'll likely have fewer
detractors.
Quoted message said:Do we _really_ need to protect our heads every time we ride a bike to
the library?? Someone must be very fearful to think so!
Whoops! There's the ol' FK bias showing again....
You've just foisted *your* tolerance for risk and the actual risk
where and how you ride, coupled with *your* questionable evaluation of
the available data, on everybody.
You've also painted, with a broad and damning brush, everybody who
buckles up *because they want to* when they drive to the corner store
because, statistically, they aren't likely to get into an injury
accident.
It's more of your leading language, and that's not really helpful
here.
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:That's the science, and it seems pretty clear. Now, to approach the
*policy* part: I think people who ride without helmets are silly,
Then you think the vast, vast majority of the world's cyclists are
silly, don't you?
Quite a few of them are, sure. I should have qualified my statement
(egads): it's risk/reward. I still don't understand the no-helmet
reward very well, and nobody's done a good job of explaining it to me.
I'd also further qualify *my* statement to say: helmets seem to help.
You decide--based on skill level, geography (traffic, etc.), and your
evaluation of the risk (what risk in wearing a helmet again?)/reward
equation whether or not to wear one.
I just don't think "don't wanna' look like a dork" is a great reason
not to. Neither do I think being called a fear-monger or threatening
somebody (not accusing you of this, per se) of hastening the demise of
cycling for wearing one is helpful.
Quoted message said:"Silly Europeans! Silly Asians! Silly Africans! Silly South
Americans! Don't you know you must follow the American example? After
all, _we_ know about bicycling! You can tell by the way we drive our
cars everywhere! (Plus, we dress just like Lance Armstrong does!)"
{overhead page blaring} Frank, please return to the conversation.
Frank.
Quoted message said:but
Quoted message said:I'm not advocating a law requiring their use. In fact, as I've said
before, I'd stand beside you in arguing against such a law.
I just get a bit weary of seeing your dogma dressed up as
pseudo-science.
Um... yes. Yet, from what I can tell, I'm the one providing data,
citations of refereed papers, things people can verify in their
libraries. You're providing your dearly held beliefs.
Well, here's a link to the Rivara meta-study (that you don't happen to
like):
http://www.cyclehelmets.org/papers/c2009.pdf
And one to criticism of it, and the authors' response to those
criticisms:
http://www.cochrane-injuries.lshtm.ac.uk/helmetcomment.pdf
Quoted message said:Anyone is welcome to check the references at
http://www.bicyclinglife.com/SafetySkills/SafetyQuiz.htm
Do you have copies of those *actual* studies/papers? I can't find
them (and please don't throw out "not going to do your work for you,
blah, blah, blah." You either have them or you don't.)
Quoted message said:although that's not specifically about helmets; it's about the actual
safety data for cycling.
If you want data on helmets, try http://www.cyclehelmets.org/
or try http://www.magma.ca/~ocbc/hfaq.html
Much editorial stuff, starting from your position, about cycling
*fatalities*, but--again--I'd like to avoid *all injuries* (remember:
I'm a wuss. Others may be, too).
I love quotes like "Constant promotion of helmets diverts attention
from effective accident reduction measures and makes cycling look so
dangerous that it scares some people off cycling completely."
There's sooooo much wrong with that statement.....
Quoted message said:or
http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/web/public.nsf/Documents/maxi-faq-helmets
The criticisms here (for the moment, I'm addressing Rivara), again,
are so narrow (risk compensation is viable in *kids*). *You* tend to
draw inferences here and apply them broadly. I think that's
irresponsible.
Quoted message said:Check out any of the citations.
There's more, of course. But if you want to disagree, Neil, why not
pick a specific point and let's discuss it? (I'd prefer one from my
article, that quiz at Bicycling Life, since I'm most familiar with
that, but I'm open to any factual discussion.)
HAH! That's funny! Thanks for putting my criticism in such stark
relief :-)
Quoted message said:Vague accusations of "dogma" seem completely backwards when you're the
one stating your true beliefs without evidence!
I'm not stating any beliefs at all. I'm saying that studies
performed--even those in your chapmancentral link--consistently
indicate *some measure of protection* is provided by proper wear of a
well-fitting bicycle helmet. In other words, there is near unanimity,
or unanimity, to that conclusion. Argument goes on forever about
quantity, certainly more difficult to pin down, but whether or not
there's benefit seems consistently established, even in the cites you
provide.
So here's what I'm suggesting: Don't answer the risk:reward question
for others. Let them do it themselves.
Show conclusive proof that voluntary helmet use is a bad idea
(increases risk of head injury, rather than reduces it).
THAT, to me, is the better, more important argument.
Neil