Power Analysis

Hard to say whether your 4 w/kg goal for FTP (I'm assuming FTP is what you're targeting, you don't say). is achievable and the data you provided doesn't really make it clearer.

Based on the data and your current weight you'd need to sustain ~327 watts for roughly an hour to hit your 4 w/kg target. Your MMP curve shows you hold that power for roughly 2 minutes or at least that's what you've done in the past week or so while you collected your baseline power data. If you truly went all out for some sustained longer efforts as in some all out five minute climbs or all out for some 15 to 30 minute hard fast intervals or hard sustained climbs near your limit then you've got a long way to go towards your goal but that's not surprising if you're just beginning to train more seriously.

Of course dropping weight further will lower that power target which should help unless you're already very lean at 180 pounds.

Basically in your ride file and in your MMP curve there's no way to know if you actually went all out for any longer sustained efforts or if this is just the data you collected on random riding around with maybe some short hard hills thrown in. If you went all out for something like a 20 minute interval during the time you collected this data then you've got some work to do. If not then try that, go out and ride a solid hard 20 to 30 minute effort basically as hard and fast as you can without totally blowing up and having to back off the pace. IOW, a mini time trial where you collect power data. That's the best way to figure out what you can actually sustain via primarily aerobic processes for long durations. It doesn't have to be a formal FTP test, just a long solid effort where you really try to sustain as much power as you can.

There's never really any way to know how far someone can take their training if they stick with it. We can only look at power data to see if they're currently close to their goals but it does assume the power data actually reflects maximal efforts for durations of interest. If your data does show maximum efforts for longer durations like 20+ minutes then you've got a long way to go to hit your goal. If it does not show truly maximal efforts then there's not a lot we can learn from that data. Either way keep training and see where it takes you.

-Dave

Thanks @dave for your response.

I am far from being on my target weight, I am still in the process of losing weight like I mentioned, I guess I have about 15-20lbs to lose, which will put me at 70-73kg which is a good number for me.

Meaning my power needs to be 280-290 in order for me to be at my goal, right now I am able (without ever going all out for 20 minutes) to maintain 220 over 20 minutes time. (60-70w shy of my goal)

My power numbers do not show all out efforts, except for the max watts where I did 15-45 seconds all out sprints.

Question is, considering I will keep training hard, and now even harder since I am training with power, is 60-80W increase over 20 minutes something achievable?
Considering I am focusing solely on building, with no racing until I get to my goals.

No one can say with any certainty what your potential is. One thing that sticks out in my mind is; if your goal is 4 w/kg @ FTP your training should reflect that with plenty of long, steady, strong aerobic efforts. Also, if you're interested in racing... Start racing sooner rather than later. Plenty of races can be won with less than 4 w/kg especially if a guy has some 'driving skills' and race savvy.

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by Avi Tzurel [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]...Question is, considering I will keep training hard, and now even harder since I am training with power, is 60-80W increase over 20 minutes something achievable? Considering I am focusing solely on building, with no racing until I get to my goals.

It seems likely but as Quenya points out no one can know what someone else's potential is based on power data. We can only know what you have actually done, not what you might be capable of doing with more training.

Also as Quenya points out if your goal is FTP or at least 20 minute power then target that in your training. You don't need to go right to the limit when you train but get out and ride 20 to 30 minute intervals at 85%, 90% or more of your capabilities for that duration. IOW, if you've done 220 watts for 20 minutes and that is not a maximal effort then go out and try 240 or 250 and find out what you can manage and what is too hard to complete. Then ride long intervals at least once or twice a week at 90% or so of that best effort. Adjust the power upwards as your fitness increases and it begins to feel easy but you don't need to go right to the breaking point very often if at all in normal training.

Do at least one and preferably two days a week of focused SST/L4 work like that and do some longer more moderate rides and some easier days on the bike just to recover and stay fresh. A program like that can easily get you a good training blend with five or six days on the bike with some being focused and harder (but sustained efforts not short gut busting sprints) and some days mellower but longer.

But yeah, considering you haven't been doing a lot of structured SST/L4 work and haven't ridden for years it seems likely that you could add 60 or more watts (perhaps a lot more) to your 20 minute power and towards your FTP.

Still there's only one way to know for sure....

-Dave

Thank you for your feedback guys.
That what I was actually looking for, is 60-70-80 watts increase from the point where I am now viable.

Seems that it is, as long as I stick to a training plan to focus on that.

Once my coach is back, we have some work to do.

Again, thank you for all your comments, I learned a lot.

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by Avi Tzurel [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]
Meaning my power needs to be 280-290 in order for me to be at my goal, right now I am able (without ever going all out for 20 minutes) to maintain 220 over 20 minutes time. (60-70w shy of my goal)

So why don't you just go out and ride as hard as you can for 20 min? Your statement of maintaining 220w for 20 min is pretty vague -- do you mean it's no effort at all, or it's a hard effort but not all out? Why all the speculation on a forum about what you might, could, or would do, why not actually just do it?

It just seems senseless to have a powermeter (coach or not) and not do any reasonable amount of proper baseline testing. Use these next few weeks of unstructured riding to get decent baseline values (5-10sec, 1 min, 5 min, 20 min, 60 min if you can). You have nothing to lose and everything to gain by that. Certainly more useful than the opinion of a bunch of strangers based on some half-information on a forum!

@smaryka I just got the power meter less then 10 days ago, I was just riding with it to see what it's like.
Since I didn't do an FTP test, I still do not know my actual FTP so I just haven't started real training based on power.

Basically, since I had it, I was just riding, for fun, without real focus on anything, sprinting some sections, power climbing others.
I was trying to see what are my actual watts on segments I did using HR and see if I was actually maintaining the same power or was HR throwing me off.

I learned that while HR sticks, power actually varies quite a bit, and I found places where I clearly push less on the pedals during climbs.

Regarding my 220W statement, I'll try to be less vague, it's not an all out session, it's hard, I would say I was going around 80-90% for the first 5 minutes and then gradually less to around 70%.

Now that I have some data, and I know what it's like maintaining watts, I will do my FTP tests and get into focused training with the power meter.

Makes more sense now?

Well it doesn't really make much sense to ask if you can add 60-80w to an all-out aerobic effort if you haven't done an all-out aerobic effort as a baseline! That was my point. I'm not having a go at you, just that a lot of people ask "do I have what it takes to make it" (or similar) without any useful background info at all. You might as well ask "can I become a millionaire, currently I'm making 30 grand a year at my job" there are so many factors to take into account that it's impossible for anyone to offer useful advice beyond "work hard and see where you get".