Mark Janeba said:Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:Fourtunately T.De Roy, R.Sørensen and E.Breukink managed to persuaded
M.Rasmussen to follow Armstrong today, witch means we can set the
podium in Paris:
1 L.Armstrong 🙁
2 M.Rasmussen :-)
3 ?
I.Basso, L.Leipheimer and P.Macepo will fight for 3rd spot.
Quoted message said:Rasmussen had great rides today and Sunday, but I'm not so sure about
his being able to hold second place.
He'l only need 2-3 minutes more on Basso, Ulrich and Leipheimer in
order to succeed. I expect him to get that.
Quoted message said:Here is some data from his recent Tour ITT's:
Quoted message said:Last year: 2004 Tour de France
Quoted message said:Stage 19 ITT 55km
Rasmussen started the day 13th in GC, 20:20 back
Results:
Rasmussen 6:56 behind winner Armstrong
4:06 behind Basso
2:50 behind Leipheimer
4:31 behind Landis
5:55 behind Ullrich
Quoted message said:Currently, Rasmussen is:
0:38 behind Armstrong
2:02 ahead of Basso
2:38 ahead of Valverde
3:20 ahead of Leipheimer
3:38 ahead of Landis
3:24 ahead of Ullrich
and
3:22 ahead of P.Mancepo
In this equation M.Rasmussen needs to gain the following until the TT
-2:04 to I.Basso
+0:40 to Leipheimer
-0:53 to Landis
-2:31 to Ulrich
That's abeslutely posible (note that i think Leipheimer will do a lot
better this year, and that Ladis is not a real contender). Do you have
the numbers for P.Macepo's 55km TT last year?
I don't count last years 19km TDF uphill TT, because M.Rasmusse threw
it away. In 2004's Dauphine Libere M.Rasmussen did a reasonable TT up
Mont Ventoux. He was less than 2 minutes behind L.Armstrong and didn't
go 100%.
(Actually i expected M.Rasmussen to win last years 19km uphill TT, but
instead he chose to throw it away in order to maintain his freshness
the following day - besides he rode all last year's TDF with a virus)
Quoted message said:If (!) Rasmussen can gain time on rivals again at Ax-3 Domaines and
St-Lary Soulan (remaining mtn top finishes) like he did today, AND not
lose time on other stages, AND time trial as he did last year, Basso
will get him at the ITT, but he beats Leipheimer, Landis, and Ullrich.
Quoted message said:So: can Rasmussen gain time as today on the mtn top finishes, hold his
own in all other stages, and TT as well as last year? One year more
experience and a podium place to defend argue in his favor. I would
think he would reach the final TT more tired this year, though.
Quoted message said:Any other results to compare this year to last for Rasmussen?
No, M.Rasmussen has raced even less than L.Armstrong in 2005, but i
expect him to gain time on every one in the race until the TT, however
he won't gain enough time on Armstrong to survive the TT.
M.Rasmussen wil ride a redicously bad TT, but not any worse than last
year witch means less than 7 minutes to Armstrong, and less than 6
minuttes to Ulrich. Last year M.Rasmussen didn't care about GC - his
only goal at the last TT that year was to stay within the timelimit.
A.Valverde isn't a contender, this is his first tour and he will have
bad day + use energy to help P.Mancepo.
P.Mancepo does a reasonable TT and he's the rider who's gonna be
closest to Rasmussen and Armstrong in the mountains - witch is why i
think he will be among the 3, who will be fighting for 3rd in Paris.
I.Basso will be the 2nd closest rider to M.R and L.A, but he will also
lose time until the TT. His currently closer to M.R/L.A and he's a
better TT'er than Mancepo, but in Paris M.R will be to far ahead for
basso to reach 2nd. - He will be among the 3 fighting for 3rd in Paris.
Leipheimer will loose aproximatly the same time as Basso until the TT,
but is a better TT'er, but not good enough to reach 2nd spot. He'll
fight for 3rd with P.Mancepo and I.Basso.
The T-Mobile & Phonak riders will keep loosing time every single day
until the TT. Currently Ulrich is closest at 3.24 behind M.R and the
gap will grow to +7. By then 2nd and even 3rd will be out of reach.
J.Jaksche, C.Evans, A.Kashechkin, B.Julich, C.Sastre and A.Valverde
will fight for 6-10th with T-Mobile and Phonak.
--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>
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