Why don't you ask Eddy Merckx how he gauged his training? More people don't have power meters than do have them. I suspect most of them have a way of gauging how their training is going and it may be somewhat different than how I would do it. Some of those people who don't use power meters are actually world champions so I suspect that whatever they are doing is reasonably effective.jollyrogers said:Let's hear your suspicions
How do race results tell you whether or not you're improving? A couple years ago I raced 2 TTs in a local series. At the first, I placed 9th or 10th in Cat 5. At the second I placed 4th. Did I improve?
And, it is not possible to tell on the basis of a single race or two if one is better or not (ok maybe it is if the race has 5000 people and one year you finish 2285 and the next year you finish 183rd one might assume one has improved relative to the competition). In your instance one would need to know more about the race and the competition in each race but such a small change suggests little. Gauging improvement through race results would be the same as gauging improvement using a PM, it requires multiple trials to "know" only with one you are comparing yourself to yourself and with the other you are comparing yourself to the competition (and, perhaps, the clock). If you find that in all of your subsequent races you have advanced your finishing from top 10 to top 5 then I think we can presume you have advanced compared to your competition.
Let's say your PM tells you your power is up 10 watts but your placing in your next TT goes down. Would you tell everyone you have improved? Did you improve that power by sacrificing aerodynamics? Or, did you just have a bad day? Or, something else?