More Rabobank fun and games

trg schreef:

Quoted message said:

Ok, I assumed that they sent two riders (Weining and Posthuma ?) in front in
the last 30km or so to keep the yellow on floyd's back and make Phonak work
tomorrow and maybe the next day. When I saw that Phonak wanted to get rid of
the jersey, it crossed my mind that Rabobank might try something like that.

So why did they abandon that idea? Deal with Phonak? Second thoughts about
letting Periero back in? Or just afraid of bad karma?

Posthuma explained as follows: it was agreed between several teams that
they would all take some pulls after Phonak quit. As it happened,
Rabobank was the first to do so and there wasn't much going on anymore
when they were done.

--
E. Dronkert

"Ewoud Dronkert" <[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de
news: [email hidden]...
| trg schreef:
| > Ok, I assumed that they sent two riders (Weining and Posthuma ?) in
front in
| > the last 30km or so to keep the yellow on floyd's back and make Phonak
work
| > tomorrow and maybe the next day. When I saw that Phonak wanted to get
rid of
| > the jersey, it crossed my mind that Rabobank might try something like
that.
| >
| > So why did they abandon that idea? Deal with Phonak? Second thoughts
about
| > letting Periero back in? Or just afraid of bad karma?
|
| Posthuma explained as follows: it was agreed between several teams that
| they would all take some pulls after Phonak quit. As it happened,
| Rabobank was the first to do so and there wasn't much going on anymore
| when they were done.
|

I hadn't noticed that Phonak quit because the pace picked up when Rabobank
took over, but that explains why Lampre had a guy up there as well.

"trg" <[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
| Ok, I assumed that they sent two riders (Weining and Posthuma ?) in front
in
| the last 30km or so to keep the yellow on floyd's back and make Phonak
work
| tomorrow and maybe the next day. When I saw that Phonak wanted to get rid
of
| the jersey, it crossed my mind that Rabobank might try something like
that.
|
| So why did they abandon that idea? Deal with Phonak? Second thoughts about
| letting Periero back in? Or just afraid of bad karma?
|

BTW, I half expected to see Dessel take off in the last 20km on a little
break of his own. He could have taken back the yellow jersey, and I don't
think anyone would have chased him unless perhaps Karpets. Maybe AG2R
learned how much work it was defending it and decided it wasn't worth it.
Been there, done that.

"trg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"trg" <[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
| Ok, I assumed that they sent two riders (Weining and Posthuma ?) in
front
in
| the last 30km or so to keep the yellow on floyd's back and make Phonak
work
| tomorrow and maybe the next day. When I saw that Phonak wanted to get
rid
of
| the jersey, it crossed my mind that Rabobank might try something like
that.
|
| So why did they abandon that idea? Deal with Phonak? Second thoughts
about
| letting Periero back in? Or just afraid of bad karma?
|

BTW, I half expected to see Dessel take off in the last 20km on a little
break of his own. He could have taken back the yellow jersey, and I don't
think anyone would have chased him unless perhaps Karpets. Maybe AG2R
learned how much work it was defending it and decided it wasn't worth it.
Been there, done that.

It doesn't look like any of the teams have the confidence to control the
race at this point, even Phonak. I suppose it is a combination of
inexperience and the heat, but everyone is riding so tenatively, I feel like
Lance could have jumped on a bike yesterday in Strasbourg, ridden 3-4 stages
a day, caught up to the group at the foot of Alpe d'Huez on Tuesday, and be
ahead by 2 minutes on GC by the top of the climb.

RJG said:

Quoted message said:

It doesn't look like any of the teams have the confidence to control the
race at this point, even Phonak. I suppose it is a combination of
inexperience and the heat, but everyone is riding so tenatively,

Riding in that heat must be sapping, but I'll need some help with the
experience part. Let's see -- Discovery defended during the last 7
TdF's. CSC is experienced in this sort of thing, but have nobody to
ride for. Liberty Seguros is only a memory. Daimiton-Lotto (etc.) are
used to setting up sprints, not defending a GC jersey. Phonak may have
enough experience on the earlier stage races Landis won this year to
know their limitations. So, your experience theory doesn't seem too
bad. T-Mobile -- I don't understand racing tactics well enough to
figure out what they are doing.

RJG said:

Quoted message said:

It doesn't look like any of the teams have the confidence to control the
race at this point, even Phonak. I suppose it is a combination of
inexperience and the heat, but everyone is riding so tenatively,

Riding in that heat must be sapping, but I'll need some help with the
experience part. Let's see -- Discovery defended during the last 7
TdF's. CSC is experienced in this sort of thing, but have nobody to
ride for. Liberty Seguros is only a memory. Daimiton-Lotto (etc.) are
used to setting up sprints, not defending a GC jersey. Phonak may have
enough experience on the earlier stage races Landis won this year to
know their limitations. So, your experience theory doesn't seem too
bad. T-Mobile -- I don't understand racing tactics well enough to
figure out what they are doing.

<[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
| RJG wrote:
| > >
| > It doesn't look like any of the teams have the confidence to control the
| > race at this point, even Phonak. I suppose it is a combination of
| > inexperience and the heat, but everyone is riding so tenatively,
|
| Riding in that heat must be sapping, but I'll need some help with the
| experience part. Let's see -- Discovery defended during the last 7
| TdF's. CSC is experienced in this sort of thing, but have nobody to
| ride for. Liberty Seguros is only a memory. Daimiton-Lotto (etc.) are
| used to setting up sprints, not defending a GC jersey. Phonak may have
| enough experience on the earlier stage races Landis won this year to
| know their limitations. So, your experience theory doesn't seem too
| bad. T-Mobile -- I don't understand racing tactics well enough to
| figure out what they are doing.

Neither do they.

<[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
| RJG wrote:
| > >
| > It doesn't look like any of the teams have the confidence to control the
| > race at this point, even Phonak. I suppose it is a combination of
| > inexperience and the heat, but everyone is riding so tenatively,
|
| Riding in that heat must be sapping, but I'll need some help with the
| experience part. Let's see -- Discovery defended during the last 7
| TdF's. CSC is experienced in this sort of thing, but have nobody to
| ride for. Liberty Seguros is only a memory. Daimiton-Lotto (etc.) are
| used to setting up sprints, not defending a GC jersey. Phonak may have
| enough experience on the earlier stage races Landis won this year to
| know their limitations. So, your experience theory doesn't seem too
| bad. T-Mobile -- I don't understand racing tactics well enough to
| figure out what they are doing.
|

It's not a question of experience, but of energy. Remember, Discovery/Postal
also intentionally gave away the jersey to conserve energy. (Thomas Voekler
being perhaps the most publicized recipient of their largess.) They always
gave it away to someone they thought they could take it back from. Phonak
played it perfectly.

Here's an explanation of their tactics today-

http://www.dailypeloton.com/displayarticle.asp?pk=9784

trg said:

It's not a question of experience, but of energy. Remember, Discovery/Postal
also intentionally gave away the jersey to conserve energy. (Thomas Voekler
being perhaps the most publicized recipient of their largess.) They always
gave it away to someone they thought they could take it back from. Phonak
played it perfectly.

Here's an explanation of their tactics today-

dumbass,

i hope this "tactic" comes back to bite phonak in the ass.

maybe the rookie DS of phonak thinks he can reinvent cycling tactics,
he probably hoped rabo and gerol would work to defend their GC spots.
phonak should've at least ensured that count floyd kept his lead.

pereiro is not some chump. now it is floyd's job to drop pereiro.

having the lead might just give pereiro the motivation he needs to hang
on to floyd's wheel through the alps.

stupid, not crazy stupid, but it's a risk they didn't need to take.

Quoted message said:

trg said:

It's not a question of experience, but of energy. Remember, Discovery/Postal
also intentionally gave away the jersey to conserve energy. (Thomas Voekler
being perhaps the most publicized recipient of their largess.) They always
gave it away to someone they thought they could take it back from. Phonak
played it perfectly.

Here's an explanation of their tactics today-

dumbass,

i hope this "tactic" comes back to bite phonak in the ass.

maybe the rookie DS of phonak thinks he can reinvent cycling tactics,
he probably hoped rabo and gerol would work to defend their GC spots.
phonak should've at least ensured that count floyd kept his lead.

pereiro is not some chump. now it is floyd's job to drop pereiro.

having the lead might just give pereiro the motivation he needs to hang
on to floyd's wheel through the alps.

stupid, not crazy stupid, but it's a risk they didn't need to take.

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/tdf2006/news/story?id=2520455
Booby also thinks it was a dumb move - so you're probably
wrong. Although I think your reason (Pereiro is not to be
trifled with) is better than his (disrespect for the jersey and
other teams supposedly being alienated by this).

Pereiro just spent a long hot day in a break, but there is a
rest day on Monday, so if he can survive Sunday he can
recover before the stage to Alpe d'Huez. If that stage were
Sunday, I wouldn't expect him to keep the lead.
Phonak is presumably counting on Caisse d'Epargne to
control any meaningful breaks tomorrow (which could
be nasty) and the first half of Tuesday. But also, Caisse
d'Epargne now has two guys that are nominal threats,
Pereiro and Karpets.

I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
Pereiro, for example.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Quoted post said:

Pereiro just spent a long hot day in a break, but there is a
rest day on Monday, so if he can survive Sunday he can
recover before the stage to Alpe d'Huez. If that stage were
Sunday, I wouldn't expect him to keep the lead.
Phonak is presumably counting on Caisse d'Epargne to
control any meaningful breaks tomorrow (which could
be nasty) and the first half of Tuesday. But also, Caisse
d'Epargne now has two guys that are nominal threats,
Pereiro and Karpets.

I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
Pereiro, for example.

He got 1:40 out of Pereiro in the first TT but only 51 seconds out of Karpets
(though you could say that he may have gained more if not for the bike change). I
think Karpets may be a good one to watch for next year. He's lost too much time
already to be a serious threat now, being 7:07 behind FL. Could be a stage winner
this time, though.

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

Howard Kveck said:

Quoted post said:

Phonak is presumably counting on Caisse d'Epargne to
control any meaningful breaks tomorrow (which could
be nasty) and the first half of Tuesday. But also, Caisse
d'Epargne now has two guys that are nominal threats,
Pereiro and Karpets.

I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
Pereiro, for example.

He got 1:40 out of Pereiro in the first TT but only 51 seconds out of Karpets
(though you could say that he may have gained more if not for the bike change). I
think Karpets may be a good one to watch for next year. He's lost too much time
already to be a serious threat now, being 7:07 behind FL. Could be a stage winner
this time, though.

Yes, most guys outside the top 10 aren't serious threats -
unless they get in a break. That's why it matters that
Caisse d'Epargne has two guys in the almost-serious-threat
range. If Karpets were to get in a break on the stage
to Alpe d"Huez, Cd'E could look at Phonak and say,
Hey, you chase, not us.

I don't think this will happen - Phonak and the other
GC teams would probably chase down a break
containing Karpets before it got very far - but it's
the kind of trick a team can pull only when it has
two contenders (or near contenders).

in message <[email hidden]>,

(') said:

RJG said:

Quoted message said:

It doesn't look like any of the teams have the confidence to control
the race at this point, even Phonak. I suppose it is a combination of
inexperience and the heat, but everyone is riding so tenatively,

Riding in that heat must be sapping, but I'll need some help with the
experience part. Let's see -- Discovery defended during the last 7
TdF's. CSC is experienced in this sort of thing, but have nobody to
ride for.

Sastre isn't Basso, but he isn't 'nobody', either. He's certainly good
enough to be lead rider on a minor team, and I personally still hope to
see him in yellow in Paris. Not that I'd put a lot of money on it, mind,
but I do think that at present he's a better bet than Landis.

Quoted message said:

Liberty Seguros is only a memory. Daimiton-Lotto (etc.) are
used to setting up sprints, not defending a GC jersey.

I agree. They can certainly get the green; they're a very long shot for
the yellow; therefore it makes sense for them to concentrate on the
green.

Quoted message said:

Phonak may have
enough experience on the earlier stage races Landis won this year to
know their limitations. So, your experience theory doesn't seem too
bad.

Landis only has to have one bad day, or crack once, and he's gone. He
doesn't have the strength in his team to carry him through a bed patch.

Quoted message said:

T-Mobile -- I don't understand racing tactics well enough to
figure out what they are doing.

Kloden isn't a better climber than Sastre - on the contrary. Both Kloden
and CSC have been decimated. Both were very strong teams a month ago,
and have excellent organisational and technical support. You can't rule
either of them out. But the teams that have emphatically ruled
themselves in are Rabobank and Gerosteiner.

Menchov lost 43 seconds on Landis in the first ITT, one second more than
Kloden. Sastre lost 70 seconds. Liepheimer lost five minutes, but we
have to assume this was Liepheimer's bad day, and the probability is he
will lose far less in the second one.

So my bet for the end in Paris is

1 Menchov
2 Liepheimer
3 Sastre
4 Landis
5 Kloden

although, personally, I'd prefer to see Sastre in yellow.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; I'd rather live in sybar-space

Quoted message said:

I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
Pereiro, for example.

He did take 26 minutes out of him in the stage to Pla-de-Beret though.

<[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
|
| trg wrote:
|
| > It's not a question of experience, but of energy. Remember,
Discovery/Postal
| > also intentionally gave away the jersey to conserve energy. (Thomas
Voekler
| > being perhaps the most publicized recipient of their largess.) They
always
| > gave it away to someone they thought they could take it back from.
Phonak
| > played it perfectly.
| >
| > Here's an explanation of their tactics today-
|
| dumbass,
|
| i hope this "tactic" comes back to bite phonak in the ass.
|
| maybe the rookie DS of phonak thinks he can reinvent cycling tactics,
| he probably hoped rabo and gerol would work to defend their GC spots.
| phonak should've at least ensured that count floyd kept his lead.

Yeah, why don't you give the "rookie DS" at Phonak, and that team of racers
who obviously don't know their own capacities and their form teammates
Periero's capacities as well as an RBR dumbass, a hand.

|
| pereiro is not some chump. now it is floyd's job to drop pereiro.

Pereiro doesn't even agree with you. He said "Of course I'll try to hold on
to it as long as I can, but I think Floyd will have the jersey back whenever
he wants it" Floyd doesn' have to try to "drop Pereiro". If he can't take
at least a minute out of a guy like Oscar in even one climb, like the Alpe
d'Heuz, then there was no way he was going to keep it all the way to Paris
anyway.

|
| having the lead might just give pereiro the motivation he needs to hang
| on to floyd's wheel through the alps.

Ok. I'll give you 5 to 1 odds on Pereiro winning the Tour de France. I'll
cover any amount you want. Not interested? 10 to 1 then. Still not
interested? Ok 20 to 1. No? Hmm, not much of a risk they're taking.

|
| stupid, not crazy stupid, but it's a risk they didn't need to take.
|

Donald Munro said:

Quoted message said:

I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
Pereiro, for example.

He did take 26 minutes out of him in the stage to Pla-de-Beret though.

Pereiro had no sense of purpose in that stage. Now he does. That will
make a difference, mark my words.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
Pereiro, for example.

Donald Munro said:

Quoted message said:

He did take 26 minutes out of him in the stage to Pla-de-Beret though.

Stu Fleming said:

Pereiro had no sense of purpose in that stage. Now he does. That will
make a difference, mark my words.

Perhaps, but he spent an awful lot of his budget yesterday. And as M. trg
says somewhere else if Landis can't take a minute and a bit of Perreiro in
the succeeding climbs and TT's the he would have lost anyway.

<[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
| [email hidden] wrote:
| > trg wrote:
| >
| > > It's not a question of experience, but of energy. Remember,
Discovery/Postal
| > > also intentionally gave away the jersey to conserve energy. (Thomas
Voekler
| > > being perhaps the most publicized recipient of their largess.) They
always
| > > gave it away to someone they thought they could take it back from.
Phonak
| > > played it perfectly.
| > >
| > > Here's an explanation of their tactics today-
| >
| > dumbass,
| >
| > i hope this "tactic" comes back to bite phonak in the ass.
| >
| > maybe the rookie DS of phonak thinks he can reinvent cycling tactics,
| > he probably hoped rabo and gerol would work to defend their GC spots.
| > phonak should've at least ensured that count floyd kept his lead.
| >
| > pereiro is not some chump. now it is floyd's job to drop pereiro.
| >
| > having the lead might just give pereiro the motivation he needs to hang
| > on to floyd's wheel through the alps.
| >
| > stupid, not crazy stupid, but it's a risk they didn't need to take.
|
| http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/tdf2006/news/story?id=2520455
| Booby also thinks it was a dumb move - so you're probably
| wrong. Although I think your reason (Pereiro is not to be
| trifled with) is better than his (disrespect for the jersey and
| other teams supposedly being alienated by this).

Well, disagreeing with something Booby writes in ESPN doesn't automatically
make a person wrong. That's his opinion, It's not one shared by Phonak who
knows the condition and capacities of themselves and Pereiro better than
you, I or Booby. Plus, Booby also thinks I'm right. In that article he
writes-

"The team's decision to give up the yellow before the Alps could turn out to
be a good one"

|
| Pereiro just spent a long hot day in a break, but there is a
| rest day on Monday, so if he can survive Sunday he can
| recover before the stage to Alpe d'Huez. If that stage were
| Sunday, I wouldn't expect him to keep the lead.
| Phonak is presumably counting on Caisse d'Epargne to
| control any meaningful breaks tomorrow (which could
| be nasty) and the first half of Tuesday. But also, Caisse
| d'Epargne now has two guys that are nominal threats,
| Pereiro and Karpets.
|
| I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
| cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
| Pereiro, for example.
|

I think they expect to take the time out of him before that, maybe on the
Alpe d'Huez. In 2004, Pereiro and Landis had about the same time in the TT
there. Only Floyd had been working for Armstrong all tour, instead of
conserving himself, and was following orders to take it easy on the climb.
Pereiro was in the fight for GC.

For me, the main problem with the strategy is that it indicates that they
are not sure about their strength as a team, and it encourages other teams
to attack. But, looking at T-Mobile's and Rabobank's behavior up until now,
and Phonak's support (or rather lack thereof) in the mountains, I think they
were going to be attacked anyway.

<[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...
| Howard Kveck wrote:
| > "[email hidden]" <[email hidden]> wrote:
| >
| > > Phonak is presumably counting on Caisse d'Epargne to
| > > control any meaningful breaks tomorrow (which could
| > > be nasty) and the first half of Tuesday. But also, Caisse
| > > d'Epargne now has two guys that are nominal threats,
| > > Pereiro and Karpets.
| > >
| > > I'm sure Phonak expects the final TT to give Floyd a
| > > cushion, though he only took about 1.5 minutes out of
| > > Pereiro, for example.
| >
| > He got 1:40 out of Pereiro in the first TT but only 51 seconds out of
Karpets
| > (though you could say that he may have gained more if not for the bike
change). I
| > think Karpets may be a good one to watch for next year. He's lost too
much time
| > already to be a serious threat now, being 7:07 behind FL. Could be a
stage winner
| > this time, though.
|
| Yes, most guys outside the top 10 aren't serious threats -
| unless they get in a break. That's why it matters that
| Caisse d'Epargne has two guys in the almost-serious-threat
| range. If Karpets were to get in a break on the stage
| to Alpe d"Huez, Cd'E could look at Phonak and say,
| Hey, you chase, not us.
|
| I don't think this will happen - Phonak and the other
| GC teams would probably chase down a break
| containing Karpets before it got very far - but it's
| the kind of trick a team can pull only when it has
| two contenders (or near contenders).
|

Take the same scenario, only assume it is T Mobile or Rabobank that send
their other GC guy in the break to Alpe d'Huez, which I think is much more
likely. Now you'll have Caisse d'Epagarne chasing instead of, or along with
Phonak. Much better situation for Phonak.