I had a few observations about that stage that I did not find in today's L'Equipe:
1. Sylvain Chavanel gained one minute on the Armstrong group in the descent of the Tourmalet. This
was the same amount that Moreau got back on the descent, but Vinkourov made up about 20 seconds
more. However, since Chavanel had zero help on the descent, plus was in a breakaway for many
hours, this means that he is up there among the best descenders.
2. Armstrong lost about 25 seconds in his crash. This crash might give the UCI some second thoughts
about the special helmet dispensation for mountain top finishes. Recall that helmets are rated
for falls at rest.
3. Armstrong's 2001 gesture waiting for Ullrich proved to be a good investment. I don't think this
is purely calculated. Good sportsmanship leads to fairer competition. On the other hand, I found
Armstrong's gesture towards Chavanel fairly artificial. He did it because of the bad press he got
with Jalabert in 2001.
4. It seems to me that Ullrich ended up being the loser in the crash. From his previous performances
on climbs this year, it appears that he can make one big acceleration per climb, e.g., the fact
that he did not make a second attack on the Tourmalet. Before the crash, Ullrich had accelerated
and was going at full speed, and it seems to me that it would have been very hard for Armstrong
to attack him from that point on.
5. Did Ullrich make a mistake on the top part of the Tourmalet? Zubeldia was able to make up a 30
second gap on the second part of the climb (after La Mongie), and he is not as good a climber as
Ullrich, as was proved in all the other stages. Therefore, one can imagine that Ullrich could
have gone harder on that part, at least attacked Armstrong again. However, see point 3, that is,
the explanation that Ullrich had already done his big effort on the climb, and that Zubeldia also
made a similar effort.
6. From the times given on French TV (which are not always accurate), it seems that Ullrich got back
13 seconds on Armstrong in the last few kilometers. In fact, it seems that the gap was constant
at about 17 seconds right after Armstrong's attack, then quickly went up to about 53 seconds as
Ullrich had a psychological crisis trying to figure out what to do, that is, he kept looking back
for help. Then finally came down fairly significantly once Ullrich took charge again.
7. If Ullrich wins back some time in the final ITT, but not enough to win, Armstrong's final winning
margin might exactly be his team time trial advantage over Bianchi.
-ilan