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Letter in Reading Chronicle

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UK and Europe
Published
19 July 2003
Last activity
22 July 2003
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Just Zis Guy
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  1. Stone me! Despite its length the Editor appears to have printed my little missive of last week,
    prompted by the posting here about Angela Lee's letter in the Sluff Express.

    Putting the lid on helmet argument
    ==================================
    Jul 18 2003

    ANGELA Lee nails her colours to the mast: so will I. I am a year-round cycle commuter, riding about
    5,000 miles on the roads per year. I am conscientious about safety and have studied the literature
    on bicycle helmets with great care.

    I disagree profoundly with Ms Lee's analysis of the need for compulsion in the use of cycle helmets.

    The argument for compulsion is built on very shaky ground. In particular the claim that injuries
    could be reduced by up to 80% is simply not supported by any credible evidence. When mandatory
    helmet wearing was introduced in Victoria, Australia, some years ago the principal result was a
    large drop in the numbers of people cycling - the injury rate (the proportion of cyclists suffering
    head injuries) remained unchanged.

    So Ms Lee's assertion that "There is no long-term disadvantage in making it compulsory to wear cycle
    helmets ... [t]his is borne out by countries that have compulsory helmet laws", is a
    misrepresentation: there is a long-term disadvantage, in that numbers cycling remained depressed
    even a decade after the law was introduced, and, more importantly, there is no provable benefit.

    This is hardly a surprise. Cycle helmets are primarily designed to protect in loss-of-control
    accidents at speeds up to 12 mph. Many adult cyclists on the road will be going faster than this,
    and the involvement of a motor vehicle in any crash immediately places it outside the design
    parameters of the helmet.

    There is also a mechanism known as risk compensation which describes the way in which use of
    protective equipment can lead to an increase in risk-taking behaviour. The best-known example in the
    UK is the introduction of compulsory seat-belts for car drivers: the rates of pedestrian, cyclist
    and rear-seat passenger fatalities rose sharply, and the benefit to drivers declined below
    measurable levels within two years.

    Helmets do appear to provide some protection for children and I fully endorse encouragement of
    children to wear helmets. But compulsion? BHITs own figures show that 90% of child cycle accidents
    occur in off-road play.

    They do not suggest how legislation could be extended to cover these accidents, most of which will
    be on private property. And of course they fail to establish any parallel between children playing
    and experienced adult cyclists on the road.

    Ms Lee mentions that helmets are now compulsory in UCI sanctioned cycle races. Are car drivers
    prepared to use helmets, fireproof suits, five-point harnesses and rollover cages, as required by
    the motorsport governing bodies? Or are we perhaps prepared to accept that there is a difference in
    character between competitive sport and everyday life?

    Promotion of cycle helmets carries with it a serious danger. The extent of risk compensation is
    dependent on the perceived value of the protective equipment - and in this respect cycle helmets are
    at best unproven. One unhelmeted rider in a cycle race was killed: helmets are now mandatory.

    Less is made of the two helmeted riders who have died recently. The countries with the lowest injury
    rates have the lowest helmet wearing rates, and the countries where helmet use is most prevalent
    have the highest injury rates. Nowhere in the world is there any evidence of injury reductions
    anywhere close to the oftrepeated 80% level - the studies which suggest this figure appear to
    produce it out of a hat.

    The original study which started the ball rolling, by Thompson, Rivara and Thompson, also
    demonstrates that helmet wearing reduces leg and torso injuries. Perhaps they were using
    full-body helmets?

    Further problems come from the way that helmet promotion portrays cycling as a risky activity. It is
    not. The BMA suggests that regular cyclists live around a decade longer than average - the danger
    posed by motorised traffic is more than offset by the inherent health benefits of cycling. So
    aggressive helmet promotion campaigns risk discouraging a worthwhile activity.

    Finally, the monomania about helmets draws attention away from far more important issues.

    The most survivable crash is the one which never happens in the first place - surely we should be
    focusing our attention on building excellence in cycle training to equip young people with the means
    to use bikes safely. Fear of a SMIDSY (sorry, mate, I didn't see you) drives many cyclists onto
    pavement cycle paths, where conflicts with motor vehicles and pedestrians multiply to the extent
    that they are at least three times more dangerous than riding on the road.

    Clearly there is more benefit in preventing crashes than in mitigating their effects, particularly
    if the means of mitigation may increase the chances of the crash happening in the first place.

    Cycling on the road skilfully and as part of the traffic is a safe, healthy way to travel. The more
    people do it, the safer it becomes.

    Polystyrene hats are largely irrelevant to this.

    GUY CHAPMAN

    Caversham

    --
    Guy
    ===

    WARNING: may contain traces of irony. Contents may settle after posting.
    chapmancentral.comchapmancentral.com

  2. Just zis Guy said:

    Stone me! Despite its length the Editor appears to have printed my little missive of last week,
    prompted by the posting here about Angela Lee's letter in the Sluff Express.

    [snip]

    Nice one Guy. Wish I'd read it before I composed a letter to my MP earlier today as he's swallowed
    BHIT's propaganda hook, line and sinker, and despite the length you managed to be a fair bit more
    concise than I did! Ah well, hopefully he'll take up my invitation to read the critique of RSR 30 by
    John Franklin...

    Pete.
    --
    Peter Clinch University of Dundee Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Medical Physics, Ninewells Hospital
    Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK net [email hidden]
    dundee.ac.uk~pjclinch

  3. "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Stone me! Despite its length the Editor appears to have printed my little missive of last week,
    prompted by the posting here about Angela Lee's


    letter

    Quoted message said:

    in the Sluff Express.

    snip

    Bloody excellent -- a cogent and very well argued case.

    I hope it doesn't start another h*lm*t flame war : (

    T

  4. "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:<[email hidden]>...

    First class, Guy. Do I/we have your permission to reproduce this, if we credit you?

    Regards,

    Robin

  5. Top letter Guy. Please make it available on your website if it isn't already so in case I need it in
    the future.

    "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Stone me! Despite its length the Editor appears to have printed my little missive of last week,
    prompted by the posting here about Angela Lee's


    letter

    Quoted message said:

    in the Sluff Express.

    Putting the lid on helmet argument
    ==================================
    Jul 18 2003

    ANGELA Lee nails her colours to the mast: so will I. I am a year-round


    cycle

    Quoted message said:

    commuter, riding about 5,000 miles on the roads per year. I am


    conscientious

    Quoted message said:

    about safety and have studied the literature on bicycle helmets with great care.

    I disagree profoundly with Ms Lee's analysis of the need for compulsion in the use of cycle
    helmets.

    The argument for compulsion is built on very shaky ground. In particular


    the

    Quoted message said:

    claim that injuries could be reduced by up to 80% is simply not supported


    by

    Quoted message said:

    any credible evidence. When mandatory helmet wearing was introduced in Victoria, Australia, some
    years ago the principal result was a large drop in the numbers of people cycling - the injury rate
    (the proportion of cyclists suffering head injuries) remained unchanged.

    So Ms Lee's assertion that "There is no long-term disadvantage in making


    it

    Quoted message said:

    compulsory to wear cycle helmets ... [t]his is borne out by countries that have compulsory helmet
    laws", is a misrepresentation: there is a long-term disadvantage, in that numbers cycling remained
    depressed even a decade


    after

    Quoted message said:

    the law was introduced, and, more importantly, there is no provable


    benefit.

    Quoted message said:


    This is hardly a surprise. Cycle helmets are primarily designed to protect in loss-of-control
    accidents at speeds up to 12 mph. Many adult cyclists


    on

    Quoted message said:

    the road will be going faster than this, and the involvement of a motor vehicle in any crash
    immediately places it outside the design parameters o


    f

    Quoted message said:

    the helmet.

    There is also a mechanism known as risk compensation which describes the


    way

    Quoted message said:

    in which use of protective equipment can lead to an increase in


    risk-taking

    Quoted message said:

    behaviour. The best-known example in the UK is the introduction of compulsory seat-belts for car
    drivers: the rates of pedestrian, cyclist


    and

    Quoted message said:

    rear-seat passenger fatalities rose sharply, and the benefit to drivers declined below measurable
    levels within two years.

    Helmets do appear to provide some protection for children and I fully endorse encouragement of
    children to wear helmets. But compulsion? BHITs


    own

    Quoted message said:

    figures show that 90% of child cycle accidents occur in off-road play.

    They do not suggest how legislation could be extended to cover these accidents, most of which will
    be on private property. And of course they fail to establish any parallel between children playing
    and experienced adult cyclists on the road.

    Ms Lee mentions that helmets are now compulsory in UCI sanctioned cycle races. Are car drivers
    prepared to use helmets, fireproof suits,


    five-point

    Quoted message said:

    harnesses and rollover cages, as required by the motorsport governing bodies? Or are we perhaps
    prepared to accept that there is a difference in character between competitive sport and
    everyday life?

    Promotion of cycle helmets carries with it a serious danger. The extent of risk compensation is
    dependent on the perceived value of the protective equipment - and in this respect cycle helmets
    are at best unproven. One unhelmeted rider in a cycle race was killed: helmets are now mandatory.

    Less is made of the two helmeted riders who have died recently. The countries with the lowest
    injury rates have the lowest helmet wearing


    rates,

    Quoted message said:

    and the countries where helmet use is most prevalent have the highest


    injury

    Quoted message said:

    rates. Nowhere in the world is there any evidence of injury reductions anywhere close to the
    oftrepeated 80% level - the studies which suggest


    this

    Quoted message said:

    figure appear to produce it out of a hat.

    The original study which started the ball rolling, by Thompson, Rivara and Thompson, also
    demonstrates that helmet wearing reduces leg and torso injuries. Perhaps they were using full-body
    helmets?

    Further problems come from the way that helmet promotion portrays cycling


    as

    Quoted message said:

    a risky activity. It is not. The BMA suggests that regular cyclists live around a decade longer
    than average - the danger posed by motorised


    traffic

    Quoted message said:

    is more than offset by the inherent health benefits of cycling. So aggressive helmet promotion
    campaigns risk discouraging a worthwhile activity.

    Finally, the monomania about helmets draws attention away from far more important issues.

    The most survivable crash is the one which never happens in the first place - surely we should be
    focusing our attention on building excellence


    in

    Quoted message said:

    cycle training to equip young people with the means to use bikes safely. Fear of a SMIDSY (sorry,
    mate, I didn't see you) drives many cyclists onto pavement cycle paths, where conflicts with motor
    vehicles and pedestrians multiply to the extent that they are at least three times more dangerous
    than riding on the road.

    Clearly there is more benefit in preventing crashes than in mitigating


    their

    Quoted message said:

    effects, particularly if the means of mitigation may increase the chances


    of

    Quoted message said:

    the crash happening in the first place.

    Cycling on the road skilfully and as part of the traffic is a safe,


    healthy

    Quoted message said:

    way to travel. The more people do it, the safer it becomes.

    Polystyrene hats are largely irrelevant to this.

    GUY CHAPMAN

    Caversham

    --
    Guy
    ===

    WARNING: may contain traces of irony. Contents may settle after posting.
    chapmancentral.comchapmancentral.com

  6. you know? said:

    Stone me! Despite its length the Editor appears to have printed my little missive of last week,
    prompted by the posting here about Angela Lee's letter in the Sluff Express.

    Guy

    D'you have a copy of the letter from Angela Lee that prompted your reply?

    James

    --
    homepage.ntlworld.comLarrau.jpg

  7. Just zis Guy, you know? deftly scribbled:

    Snipped an excellent article .. 😉

    I must say that although I do wear a helmet and encourage my children to wear helmets, it is a
    choice we make, using the facts known to us. This has given me added knowledge and I must say it
    makes an extremely good choice for non-compulsion, certainly a better case than the pro-compulsion
    lobby I feel.

    Quoted message said:

    Cycling on the road skilfully and as part of the traffic is a safe, healthy way to travel. The
    more people do it, the safer it becomes.

    I couldn't agree more with this.

    Well said .. 😉

    --
    Digweed

  8. In message <[email hidden]>, Ian Smith <[email hidden]> writes

    Quoted message said:

    That's a pretty big assunption, however, given teh reliability of teh other statistics she quoted.

    regards, Ian SMith

    Hello Ian,

    I've often read your posts and wondered why you frequently write 'teh' instead of 'the'. Is this
    simply a typo or are there other reasons?
    --
    Michael MacClancy

  9. I'd be interested to know who the "bicycle helmet initiative trust" are exactly ? Wouldn't by chance
    be a trade organisation would they ?

    (Excellent letter from Guy "just zis Guy" Chapman by the way)

    On another matter, is there some kind of "must have a bell", or even "must have a bell with bike
    when sold" rule these days ?

    For what it's worth I almost always do wear a helmet but strongly object to compulsion - not least
    because the Joe Brown climbing helmet I wear would not comply with the cycle helmet standards and
    would thus be forced to wear a "less-safe" piece of equipment. It even has a (caving) lamp-bracket
    on the front, though I've yet to use this feature on the bike

    Hywel

  10. in article [email hidden], James Hodson at
    [email hidden] wrote on 19/7/2003 1:32 am:

    Quoted message said:

    D'you have a copy of the letter from Angela Lee that prompted your reply?

    Looking for it.

    Here's another from Alan Stuart:

    Helmets won't prevent accidents
    ===============================
    Jun 5 2003

    I HAVE got behind with my reading and have only just seen the letter from Angela Lee regarding cycle
    helmets in your May 15 edition.

    Ms Lee referred to the International Cycling Union (ICU) being in favour of the compulsory wearing
    of helmets.

    I imagine she was actually talking about the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI). This is an
    acceptable mistake for someone who knows little about cycling organisations.

    It is not however acceptable to tell the public that this organisation is in favour of the
    compulsory wearing of helmets for utilitarian and leisure cyclists. The UCI is concerned only with
    racing cyclists, a very different story.

    The national organisation for cycling in this country is The Cyclists Touring Club (CTC).

    The CTC is concerned with all aspects of cycling, and with its considerable knowledge of all the
    ramifications of helmet wearing it is against compulsion.

    That is not to say that they do not recognise the protection that helmets give. Indeed the majority
    of its members, including myself, do wear them.

    The reason that compulsion is considered unwise is because of the lessons learned in the few
    countries that have tried it.

    Such a law deters many, other than keen cyclists, and they revert to their cars, even for short
    journeys. This does not help official Government policy of trebling cycling by 2010.

    The wearing of helmets is of course desirable but it does nothing to prevent accidents.

    If Angela Lee is concerned with safety and the saving of cyclists lives, I would respectfully
    suggest that she considers one of the major causes of accidents, namely drivers not leaving
    sufficient room when overtaking.

    When I am driving I am very aware of this need but sadly there are a number of drivers who are not
    regular cyclists and do not have this understanding. Some countries do legislate for this and insist
    on 1.5 to 2 metres.

    If Angela Lee would direct her energies to publicising this I suspect the results would be rather
    more fruitful.

    ALAN STUART

    The Old Stocks Inn

    Beenham

  11. in article [email hidden], James Hodson at
    [email hidden] wrote on 19/7/2003 1:32 am:

    Quoted message said:

    D'you have a copy of the letter from Angela Lee that prompted your reply?

    Yer tiz:

    Cost of not wearing a helmet Jun 26 2003

    I THINK it will be helpful if I summarise my work and that of the Bicycle Helmet Initiative Trust in
    encouraging young people to wear cycle helmets.

    In doing so, I hope it may stop adult cyclists with their own agendas giving one of the most
    vulnerable group of cyclists further ill-thought-through excuses not to wear one.

    It is a pity such people and organisations are prepared to place their agendas above the lives of
    young people.

    Based on projections from the results of our campaigns (in Reading and other sites), if all young
    cyclists were to wear helmets, it would reduce the number of head injuries from a cycling accident
    by up to 80%.

    In real terms, it equates to 20,000 young people being spared such tragedies each year.

    The savings in healthcare costs alone would approximate to £2,000,000,000 annually.

    You cannot quantify discomfort and suffering, or the reaches of such human feelings particularly
    among family and friends.

    These are very real results which can be achieved and which we have proven from our extensive
    knowledge of the UK and other countries.

    There is no long-term disadvantage in making it compulsory to wear cycle helmets with the under 16s
    or across the board.

    This is borne out by countries that have compulsory helmet laws.

    Indeed, it is possible the most effective way of curbing peer pressure and the need to look trendy
    among the young.

    The fact will always remain that it is not wrong to wear a helmet. The evidence shows it is
    beneficial.

    We have legalised seat belts (front and rear), helmets for motorcyclists, the mandatory use of child
    seats - none of these laws have reduced the use of motorised transport.

    The above highlights why we are not opposed to the legalisation of helmets for the under-16s.

    In the UK, less than 2% of the injuries sustained by young people are from accidents, but also
    knowledge of safe cycling, proper cycle maintenance and training.

    Children, like some adults, will only hear what they want to hear, and they will use any excuse to
    defend their position.

    A fundamental distinction between children and adults is their powers of reasoning are being
    developed and they need to take the lead from adults in the assessment of risks.

    It is for this reason it is of value for organisations such as the Union Cycliste Internationale,
    otherwise called the International Cycling Union, to make this mandatory and other high profile
    cyclists to endorse and be seen to endorse helmet use.

    Indeed, it would be of enormous value if the Cycling Touring Club was to follow suit, although I am
    pleased to note the majority of its members wear helmets.

    The wearing of a helmet does not stop cycling being a healthy pursuit, if anything it is the reverse
    - it provides protection in an accident to an important organ.

    We do not suggest cycling is dangerous, nor does the wearing of a helmet imply that.

    Over the years, we have been successful in changing attitudes and as a result have saved a great
    many young lives.

    ANGELA LEE

    Executive Director The Bicycle Helmet Initiative Trust Milford Road,

    Reading

  12. in article [email hidden], Hywel & Ros at [email hidden]
    wrote on 19/7/2003 9:02 pm:

    Quoted message said:

    It even has a (caving) lamp-bracket on the front, though I've yet to use this feature on the bike

    I use a Petzl headtorch in winter, so it's definitely a Great Idea to have a bracket on your lid :-)

    Guy

  13. in article [email hidden], Hywel & Ros at [email hidden]
    wrote on 19/7/2003 9:02 pm:

    Quoted message said:

    I'd be interested to know who the "bicycle helmet initiative trust" are exactly ?

    A "think of the children" organisation. I always pronounce it "Be-Hit" which gives me several
    seconds of innocent amusement :-)

    bhit.orgbhit.org - no Flash, no site (exactly as expected, really).

    Guy

  14. In "]news:[email hidden], Just zis Guy, you know?
    <[email hidden]> typed:

    Quoted message said:

    in article [email hidden], James Hodson at
    [email hidden] wrote on 19/7/2003 1:32 am:

    Quoted message said:

    D'you have a copy of the letter from Angela Lee that prompted your reply?


    Cost of not wearing a helmet Jun 26 2003


    <snip>

    Quoted message said:

    In real terms, it equates to 20,000 young people being spared such


    tragedies

    Quoted message said:

    each year.

    The savings in healthcare costs alone would approximate to 2,000,000,000 annually.

    So each and every one of us are already paying more than the equivalent of a bike helmet a year in
    healthcare costs caring for children who've had head injuries from cycling. Assuming that's correct,
    it's quite worrying, and it would be interesting to see an analysis of the most effective ways to
    solve this problem.

    Ambrose

  15. "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    That someone else stated:

    Quoted message said:

    In real terms, it equates to 20,000 young people being spared such


    tragedies

    Quoted message said:

    each year.

    The savings in healthcare costs alone would approximate to £2,000,000,000 annually.

    These must be pretty serious injuries that cost an average of 100k to put right. I could accept that
    20,000 kids suffer some form of bike related head injury, just, but would have thought most would be
    bruising, concussion and minor cuts requiring a few stitches at worst. Or is the NHS so ineffecient
    that minor injuries cost major pounds to tend? I might also believe that all forms of bicycle injury
    incur a healthcare cost of £2,000,000,000 of which further helmet use would only slightly reduce,
    bearing in mind many cyclists already use them.

    Are the figures correct in the first place? Just wondering.

    Pete

  16. Ambrose Nankivell $FirstnameInitialofSurname$ said:

    In "]news:[email hidden], Just zis Guy, you know?
    <[email hidden]> typed:

    Quoted message said:

    in article [email hidden], James Hodson at
    [email hidden] wrote on 19/7/2003 1:32 am:

    Quoted message said:

    D'you have a copy of the letter from Angela Lee that prompted your reply?

    The savings in healthcare costs alone would approximate to 2,000,000,000 annually.

    So each and every one of us are already paying more than the equivalent of a bike helmet a year
    in healthcare costs caring for children who've had head injuries from cycling. Assuming that's
    correct, it's quite worrying,

    That's a pretty big assunption, however, given teh reliability of teh other statistics she quoted.

    regards, Ian SMith
    --
    |\ /| no .sig
    |o o|
    |/ \|

  17. in article [email hidden], Ambrose Nankivell at
    [email hidden] wrote on 19/7/2003 9:37 am:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    In real terms, it equates to 20,000 young people being spared such tragedies each year. The
    savings in healthcare costs alone would approximate to 2,000,000,000 annually.

    Quoted message said:

    So each and every one of us are already paying more than the equivalent of a bike helmet a year in
    healthcare costs caring for children who've had head injuries from cycling.

    Assuming that the 80% saving estimate is accurate, which is clearly a very big assumption given that
    it appears to originate from messrs. Thompson, Rivara and Thompson.

    It is also the case that some of the "head injuries" logged are superficial. And even a scalp wound
    requiring treatment at A&E is unlikely to cost £100,000. In fact the £2bn figure has the whiff of
    Complete Bollocks about
    it. As does the 20,000 injuries figure, to be honest. Do we really believe that roughly one in a
    thousand children will suffer bicycle-related head injuries of a potentially life-threatening
    nature every year?

    Guy

  18. "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    Assuming that the 80% saving estimate is accurate, which is clearly a very big assumption given
    that it appears to originate from messrs. Thompson, Rivara and Thompson.

    It is also the case that some of the "head injuries" logged are


    superficial.

    Quoted message said:

    And even a scalp wound requiring treatment at A&E is unlikely to cost £100,000. In fact the £2bn
    figure has the whiff of Complete Bollocks


    about

    Quoted message said:

    it. As does the 20,000 injuries figure, to be honest. Do we really


    believe

    Quoted message said:

    that roughly one in a thousand children will suffer bicycle-related head injuries of a potentially
    life-threatening nature every year?

    There were 11.85 million 0-15 year olds in 2001 (census data)

    A 0.2% per annum chance of 'severe' head injury -- higher if you eliminate all those who are too
    young or have never ridden a bike -- (or a 1:40 chance by the time you reach 15) sounds like we
    should all personally know several kids who are badly brain damaged due to cycling accidents.

    Definite whiff of Complete Bolox [tm] and statistical inflation.

    T

  19. 19 Jul Michael MacClancy said:

    In message <[email hidden]>, Ian Smith <[email hidden]> writes

    Quoted message said:

    That's a pretty big assunption, however, given teh reliability of teh other statistics she
    quoted.

    I've often read your posts and wondered why you frequently write 'teh' instead of 'the'. Is this
    simply a typo or are there other reasons?

    Habit & idleness. That's teh way it comes out, and I'm too idle to fix it. Through long exposure, I
    often don't spot it even when I intend to change it.

    Anyhow, at least it gives teh people that know me a way to spot imposters!

    regards, Ian SMith
    --
    |\ /| no .sig
    |o o|
    |/ \|

  20. in article [email hidden], Tony W at [email hidden] wrote on
    19/7/2003 1:49 pm:

    Quoted message said:


    "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    Assuming that the 80% saving estimate is accurate, which is clearly a very big assumption given
    that it appears to originate from messrs. Thompson, Rivara and Thompson.

    It is also the case that some of the "head injuries" logged are


    superficial.

    Quoted message said:

    And even a scalp wound requiring treatment at A&E is unlikely to cost £100,000. In fact the £2bn
    figure has the whiff of Complete Bollocks


    about

    Quoted message said:

    it. As does the 20,000 injuries figure, to be honest. Do we really


    believe

    Quoted message said:

    that roughly one in a thousand children will suffer bicycle-related head injuries of a
    potentially life-threatening nature every year?

    There were 11.85 million 0-15 year olds in 2001 (census data)

    A 0.2% per annum chance of 'severe' head injury -- higher if you eliminate all those who are too
    young or have never ridden a bike -- (or a 1:40 chance by the time you reach 15) sounds like we
    should all personally know several kids who are badly brain damaged due to cycling accidents.

    Definite whiff of Complete Bolox [tm] and statistical inflation.

    Excellent point.

    "In real terms, [an 80% reduction in head injuries] equates to 20,000 young people being spared such
    tragedies each year. The savings in healthcare costs alone would approximate to £2,000,000,000
    annually."

    There are you say 11.85 million children under 18 in the UK. Assuming they start to ride at the age
    of five, that means the chances of suffering a serious head injury by the age of 18 are around 1 in
    26 by my calculations - does that sound right? That's assuming every single child cycles.

    Put another way, one child in every primary school class will, according to Angela Lee's
    figures, suffer a head injury costing the NHS an average of £100,000. And helmets will prevent 4
    out of 5 of these.

    Anyone who wants to write to the editor of the Reading Chronic to point out the absurdity of Angela
    Lee's statistics can find him at www.icberkshire.com.

    We wouldn't want dodgy statistics to go unchallenged, would we ;-)

    Guy

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