Let's lighten the load...

Assuming that nobody gets expelled due to doping (whoops, there's that
word again ;-)) my projections are as follows, and note the complete
lack of candy-assing :-). I'll also explain why I think these guys are
in their respective slots.

1. Ullrich - Given his rapid improvement, the big question I have is,
given the layout of this TdF, who is going to put more time on him in
the mountains than he can make up in the TT's? 2004 he was sick at the
start of the Tour, and in 2005 he couldn't keep the rubber down so I
think his first-day losses those years were more than they would have
otherwise been. In the Giro, with barely 16 or 17 days' racing in his
legs he blitzed a 50-km TT. And in the Tour de Suisse he was always in
the front in the mountains. I just don't see him coughing up 5 or more
minutes to Basso in the mountains this year. 2 to 3 minutes, yes. But
not 5 or 6.

2. Basso - the second best rider in this field. Nobody of GC
consequence will put ANY time on him in the mountains and he won't lose
enough time on the other strong-TT'ing GC contenders (Evans, Landis,
Leipheimer) to lose his place. The question is, can he put enough time
on Ullrich in the mountains (only 3 mountaintop finishes, and only one
of them in the steeper Pyrennes) to offset his inevitable TT losses?
Doubtful, IMO.

3. Cadel Evans - My 'surprise' pick. He showed up a bit short of
form in the first 2 weeks of last year's TdF but came through big-time
in the 3rd week. He's stronger this year and the only GC contender who
can *definitively* out-TT him is Ullrich. I think he's more consistent
and less prone to bad days than any of the other serious podium
candidates. He'll probably be Ullrich's equal in the mountains but
won't be able to make enough time gains on Basso in the TT's to beat
him.

4. Mancebo - I think this place is his ceiling. His TT'ing is too
weak to place him higher but he's more consistent in the mountains than
Landis or Leipheimer. There's a quantum level of difference in ability
between someone who can finish 4th in Paris and someone who can make
the podium. Ask Charly Mottet and Luc LeBlanc.

5. Landis - Eddy Merckx himself says Landis can win the TdF. However
Floyd has yet to prove to me that he can go 3 weeks without a bad day
in at least one mountain stage. He's a tremendous talent and clearly
at another level compared to last year...but until he proves the bad
days won't happen any more, I can't place him higher than this.

6. Leipheimer - Another American fan favorite...my question is
whether his TT'ing is really of sufficient caliber to match Ullrich and
Evans. Like Landis, the past has shown that while he does a good job
limiting his losses in the mountains he just can't quite stay with the
podium contenders in the TT's. Also - he may have gone deep into the
well to win the Dauphine - we'll see whether he still has something
left for the TdF. Remember, Lance himself dug deeper than he'd planned
in order to win the Dauphine in 2003, and if you read "Lance
Armstrong's War" Chris Carmichael himself said that race hurt Lance
more than helped him...and it showed at the TdF that year.

7. Valverde - He showed an awful lot of promise until his knee hurt
him last year; his first Tour of Spain showed he can go 3 weeks without
bad days. However his TT'ing is still VERY suspect, and I question
whether he'll be able to put enough time on Landis and Leipheimer in
the mountains to hold off his eventual losses in the approximately 110
km of individual time trials in this TdF.

8. Iban Mayo - I think, based on his Dauphine, he's BACK. However,
his TT'ing will still relegate him to the lower half of the top 10. I
can see him being allowed to go up the road and gain 3 - 5 minutes on a
mountain stage and maybe do what Rasmussen did last year.

9. Menchov - The winner by default of the Tour of Spain after Roberto
Heras was DQ'd. A win in the Vuelta is usually worth a top 5 in the
Tour. Since he was really second, that's worth 9th place here.

10. Hincapie - When he's on form, his TT'ing is around the level of
Cadel Evans. To me, the big question marks are whether (a) he can
handle the pressure of leading the team, and (b) like it is with Floyd
and Levi, the bad days now that he has to ride every stage with the GC
in mind. If his form improves from where it was in the Dauphine and he
goes without bad days, he could place a LOT higher than i've got him
here. But I just don't see it in his first GC assault. Yes, he won a
mountain stage...but that was also from a group that was allowed to go
20 minutes up the road and he did it without taking a single pull that
day.

******

Names I've left out:

Vinokourov: Manolo Saiz's track record of preparing specifically for
the TdF is abysmal. Whether it was Laurent Jalabert in '96, or Roberto
Heras in 2003 and 2004...he seemed to always get it wrong. I know, I
know - Saiz is no longer on the scene but I think he still had too much
of an impact and this is a case where an incompetent director stifles
the terrific athlete. Too bad for Vinokourov, as I LOVE his
aggressive, never-say-die attitude. And I hope that, if there's one
pick on which I miss the boat, this is the one.

Popovych: My own opinion is that he's been, as Paul Sherwen says, "A
bit of a deception." A podium placing in the Giro is all well and
good...but there's a world of difference between that and doing it at
the TdF. Just ask Simoni. Plus, he's probably going to wind up being
a worker for Hincapie.

Azevedo: Getting on in years and I can't see him being given priority
in the Disco food chain above Hincapie and Popovych.

Rasmussen: Can he repeat last year's effort? His stage win came as a
result of a solo - perhaps he can do it again, but he won't be given
the relatively long leash he was last year. His form this year hasn't
been noteworthy and while he could pull a rabbit out of the hat, I
don't see him being a major player in this TdF.

******

J Jones said:

Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said' stuff...

Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Levi

Dark horses include:
1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and the
boys. We'll see...
2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)

Jeff

In article <[email hidden]>,

Jim Burlant said:

Assuming that nobody gets expelled due to doping (whoops, there's that
word again ;-)) my projections are as follows, and note the complete
lack of candy-assing :-). I'll also explain why I think these guys are
in their respective slots.

1. Ullrich - Given his rapid improvement, the big question I have is,
given the layout of this TdF, who is going to put more time on him in
the mountains than he can make up in the TT's? 2004 he was sick at the
start of the Tour, and in 2005 he couldn't keep the rubber down so I
think his first-day losses those years were more than they would have
otherwise been. In the Giro, with barely 16 or 17 days' racing in his
legs he blitzed a 50-km TT.

He did do that, but he hadn't really been riding at the same level as the guys at
the front of the GC. I think he had some energy to spare for that stage, especially
since he did abandon a couple stages from the end. I sort of doubt he'd ever
seriously planned to finish the Giro.

Quoted message said:

3. Cadel Evans - My 'surprise' pick. He showed up a bit short of
form in the first 2 weeks of last year's TdF but came through big-time
in the 3rd week. He's stronger this year and the only GC contender who
can *definitively* out-TT him is Ullrich. I think he's more consistent
and less prone to bad days than any of the other serious podium
candidates. He'll probably be Ullrich's equal in the mountains but
won't be able to make enough time gains on Basso in the TT's to beat
him.

Quoted message said:

6. Leipheimer - Another American fan favorite...my question is
whether his TT'ing is really of sufficient caliber to match Ullrich and
Evans. Like Landis, the past has shown that while he does a good job
limiting his losses in the mountains he just can't quite stay with the
podium contenders in the TT's. Also - he may have gone deep into the
well to win the Dauphine - we'll see whether he still has something
left for the TdF. Remember, Lance himself dug deeper than he'd planned
in order to win the Dauphine in 2003, and if you read "Lance
Armstrong's War" Chris Carmichael himself said that race hurt Lance
more than helped him...and it showed at the TdF that year.

I don't think Evans and Leipheimer have it in them ("yet" in Evans case) to go
three weeks in the TdF without at least one off day. Sixth for Levi is doable, but I
think it might be a stretch to see Evans in third. But this could be the year he
breaks that barrier.

Quoted message said:

Popovych: My own opinion is that he's been, as Paul Sherwen says, "A
bit of a deception." A podium placing in the Giro is all well and
good...but there's a world of difference between that and doing it at
the TdF. Just ask Simoni. Plus, he's probably going to wind up being
a worker for Hincapie.

Azevedo: Getting on in years and I can't see him being given priority
in the Disco food chain above Hincapie and Popovych.

I'd think that Savoldelli would be further up the Disco chain of command than
either of these guys. I'd like to see Popovych do well, though.

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

1. Ullrich - Given his rapid improvement, the big question I have is,
given the layout of this TdF, who is going to put more time on him in
the mountains than he can make up in the TT's? 2004 he was sick at the
start of the Tour, and in 2005 he couldn't keep the rubber down so I
think his first-day losses those years were more than they would have
otherwise been. In the Giro, with barely 16 or 17 days' racing in his
legs he blitzed a 50-km TT.

He did do that, but he hadn't really been riding at the same level as the guys at
the front of the GC. I think he had some energy to spare for that stage, especially
since he did abandon a couple stages from the end. I sort of doubt he'd ever
seriously planned to finish the Giro.

True. However, Ullrich could only go up from where he was in May...the
best Basso could hope for would be that he could maintain. Time will
tell.

Quoted message said:

I don't think Evans and Leipheimer have it in them ("yet" in Evans case) to go
three weeks in the TdF without at least one off day. Sixth for Levi is doable, but I
think it might be a stretch to see Evans in third. But this could be the year he
breaks that barrier.

Again you may be right; my thinking about Evans was (a) his debut Giro
in 2002 and (b) his 3rd week of last year's TdF. Nonetheless, I wanted
to differentiate my picks from everyone else's. :-)

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Popovych: My own opinion is that he's been, as Paul Sherwen says, "A
bit of a deception." A podium placing in the Giro is all well and
good...but there's a world of difference between that and doing it at
the TdF. Just ask Simoni. Plus, he's probably going to wind up being
a worker for Hincapie.

Azevedo: Getting on in years and I can't see him being given priority
in the Disco food chain above Hincapie and Popovych.

I'd think that Savoldelli would be further up the Disco chain of command than
either of these guys. I'd like to see Popovych do well, though.

Savoldelli has openly said he's going to this TdF to strictly be a team
worker bee, so I wouldn't think it too likely he'll be up there on GC.

Another big GC name who I think will NOT finish in the top 10:

Cunego. Even though he came reasonably good to finish 4th in the Giro,
his TT'ing is still ATROCIOUS by TdF standards. Hell, he was losing 4
and 5 minutes to BASSO in the TT's...you can probably multiply that by
1.5 to estimate the likely gaps in the Tour. At best he finishes top
15 and has one good mountain stage...but not much better.

Quoted message said:

tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

J Jones said:

Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said' stuff...

Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Levi

Dark horses include:
1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and the
boys. We'll see...
2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)

I'm of the opinion that you have the finishing order for one and two.
I belive that Floyd will come in third and Savoldelli could squelch
everything in this Tour.

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said'
stuff...

Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Levi

Dark horses include:
1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and the
boys. We'll see...
2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)

Jeff

Sandy Casar

B. Lafferty a écrit :

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said'
stuff...

Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Levi

Dark horses include:
1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and the
boys. We'll see...
2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)

Jeff

Sandy Casar

Thank you !!! :-)

Oh.

Casar.

Ah well ...

http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.racing/msg/a2b389caddb77d7d?

jeremy

in message <[email hidden]>, J Jones

(') said:

Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said'
stuff...

Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?

1. Basso

Yes

Quoted message said:

2. Ullrich

No

Quoted message said:

3. Levi

Please can I _not_ have some of what you're on?

Quoted message said:

Dark horses include:
1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and
the boys. We'll see...

John Travolta? No.

Quoted message said:

2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)

No.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
Iraq war: it's time for regime change...
... go now, Tony, while you can still go with dignity.
[update 18 months after this .sig was written: it's still relevant]

in message <[email hidden]>,

Howard Kveck (') said:

Quoted message said:

Popovych:  My own opinion is that he's been, as Paul Sherwen  says, "A
bit of a deception."  A podium placing in the Giro is all well and
good...but there's a world of difference between that and doing it at
the TdF.  Just ask Simoni.  Plus, he's probably going to wind up being
a worker for Hincapie.

Azevedo:  Getting on in years and I can't see him being given priority
in the Disco food chain above Hincapie and Popovych.

I'd think that Savoldelli would be further up the Disco chain of
command than either of these guys. I'd like to see Popovych do well,
though.

I don't think any of the Disco boys are going to do anything at all this
year, but of them all Jose Azavedo has shown he has the strength to stay
with the best in the mountains. Savoldelli? We don't have any
mountain-top /starts/ this year.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

[ This mind intentionally left blank ]

Simon Brooke said:

I don't think any of the Disco boys are going to do anything at all this
year, but of them all Jose Azavedo has shown he has the strength to stay
with the best in the mountains. Savoldelli? We don't have any
mountain-top /starts/ this year.

But Bruyneel and Riis may source their blood from a non-spanish supply
which might give them an advantage.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Simon Brooke said:

in message <[email hidden]>,

Howard Kveck (') said:

Quoted message said:

Popovych:  My own opinion is that he's been, as Paul Sherwen  says, "A
bit of a deception."  A podium placing in the Giro is all well and
good...but there's a world of difference between that and doing it at
the TdF.  Just ask Simoni.  Plus, he's probably going to wind up being
a worker for Hincapie.

Azevedo:  Getting on in years and I can't see him being given priority
in the Disco food chain above Hincapie and Popovych.

I'd think that Savoldelli would be further up the Disco chain of
command than either of these guys. I'd like to see Popovych do well,
though.

I don't think any of the Disco boys are going to do anything at all this
year, but of them all Jose Azavedo has shown he has the strength to stay
with the best in the mountains.

Yeah, Azevedo has the strength and tactical know-how to be there at the end in
the mountains, but I don't believe he'll be given the freedom to show it (i.e. get a
result).

Quoted message said:

Savoldelli? We don't have any mountain-top /starts/ this year.

Heh...

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

Well, today's revelations make my new podium look like this:

1) Evans
2) Landis
3) Leipheimer

Will there be ANYONE left when all is said and done? Sheesh!!!!

Jim Burlant said:

Assuming that nobody gets expelled due to doping (whoops, there's that
word again ;-)) my projections are as follows, and note the complete
lack of candy-assing :-). I'll also explain why I think these guys are
in their respective slots.

1. Ullrich - Given his rapid improvement, the big question I have is,
given the layout of this TdF, who is going to put more time on him in
the mountains than he can make up in the TT's? 2004 he was sick at the
start of the Tour, and in 2005 he couldn't keep the rubber down so I
think his first-day losses those years were more than they would have
otherwise been. In the Giro, with barely 16 or 17 days' racing in his
legs he blitzed a 50-km TT. And in the Tour de Suisse he was always in
the front in the mountains. I just don't see him coughing up 5 or more
minutes to Basso in the mountains this year. 2 to 3 minutes, yes. But
not 5 or 6.

2. Basso - the second best rider in this field. Nobody of GC
consequence will put ANY time on him in the mountains and he won't lose
enough time on the other strong-TT'ing GC contenders (Evans, Landis,
Leipheimer) to lose his place. The question is, can he put enough time
on Ullrich in the mountains (only 3 mountaintop finishes, and only one
of them in the steeper Pyrennes) to offset his inevitable TT losses?
Doubtful, IMO.

3. Cadel Evans - My 'surprise' pick. He showed up a bit short of
form in the first 2 weeks of last year's TdF but came through big-time
in the 3rd week. He's stronger this year and the only GC contender who
can *definitively* out-TT him is Ullrich. I think he's more consistent
and less prone to bad days than any of the other serious podium
candidates. He'll probably be Ullrich's equal in the mountains but
won't be able to make enough time gains on Basso in the TT's to beat
him.

4. Mancebo - I think this place is his ceiling. His TT'ing is too
weak to place him higher but he's more consistent in the mountains than
Landis or Leipheimer. There's a quantum level of difference in ability
between someone who can finish 4th in Paris and someone who can make
the podium. Ask Charly Mottet and Luc LeBlanc.

5. Landis - Eddy Merckx himself says Landis can win the TdF. However
Floyd has yet to prove to me that he can go 3 weeks without a bad day
in at least one mountain stage. He's a tremendous talent and clearly
at another level compared to last year...but until he proves the bad
days won't happen any more, I can't place him higher than this.

6. Leipheimer - Another American fan favorite...my question is
whether his TT'ing is really of sufficient caliber to match Ullrich and
Evans. Like Landis, the past has shown that while he does a good job
limiting his losses in the mountains he just can't quite stay with the
podium contenders in the TT's. Also - he may have gone deep into the
well to win the Dauphine - we'll see whether he still has something
left for the TdF. Remember, Lance himself dug deeper than he'd planned
in order to win the Dauphine in 2003, and if you read "Lance
Armstrong's War" Chris Carmichael himself said that race hurt Lance
more than helped him...and it showed at the TdF that year.

7. Valverde - He showed an awful lot of promise until his knee hurt
him last year; his first Tour of Spain showed he can go 3 weeks without
bad days. However his TT'ing is still VERY suspect, and I question
whether he'll be able to put enough time on Landis and Leipheimer in
the mountains to hold off his eventual losses in the approximately 110
km of individual time trials in this TdF.

8. Iban Mayo - I think, based on his Dauphine, he's BACK. However,
his TT'ing will still relegate him to the lower half of the top 10. I
can see him being allowed to go up the road and gain 3 - 5 minutes on a
mountain stage and maybe do what Rasmussen did last year.

9. Menchov - The winner by default of the Tour of Spain after Roberto
Heras was DQ'd. A win in the Vuelta is usually worth a top 5 in the
Tour. Since he was really second, that's worth 9th place here.

10. Hincapie - When he's on form, his TT'ing is around the level of
Cadel Evans. To me, the big question marks are whether (a) he can
handle the pressure of leading the team, and (b) like it is with Floyd
and Levi, the bad days now that he has to ride every stage with the GC
in mind. If his form improves from where it was in the Dauphine and he
goes without bad days, he could place a LOT higher than i've got him
here. But I just don't see it in his first GC assault. Yes, he won a
mountain stage...but that was also from a group that was allowed to go
20 minutes up the road and he did it without taking a single pull that
day.

******

Names I've left out:

Vinokourov: Manolo Saiz's track record of preparing specifically for
the TdF is abysmal. Whether it was Laurent Jalabert in '96, or Roberto
Heras in 2003 and 2004...he seemed to always get it wrong. I know, I
know - Saiz is no longer on the scene but I think he still had too much
of an impact and this is a case where an incompetent director stifles
the terrific athlete. Too bad for Vinokourov, as I LOVE his
aggressive, never-say-die attitude. And I hope that, if there's one
pick on which I miss the boat, this is the one.

Popovych: My own opinion is that he's been, as Paul Sherwen says, "A
bit of a deception." A podium placing in the Giro is all well and
good...but there's a world of difference between that and doing it at
the TdF. Just ask Simoni. Plus, he's probably going to wind up being
a worker for Hincapie.

Azevedo: Getting on in years and I can't see him being given priority
in the Disco food chain above Hincapie and Popovych.

Rasmussen: Can he repeat last year's effort? His stage win came as a
result of a solo - perhaps he can do it again, but he won't be given
the relatively long leash he was last year. His form this year hasn't
been noteworthy and while he could pull a rabbit out of the hat, I
don't see him being a major player in this TdF.

******

J Jones said:

Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said' stuff...

Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Levi

Dark horses include:
1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and the
boys. We'll see...
2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)

Jeff

Jim Burlant said:

Well, today's revelations make my new podium look like this:

1) Evans
2) Landis
3) Leipheimer

Hey, mu list was:

1. Ullrich
2. Basso
3. Landis

The only candyass thing I didn't add was that was the order in which
they would be dropped from the Tour :-)

B. Lafferty said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said'
stuff...

Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Levi

Dark horses include:
1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and the
boys. We'll see...
2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)

Jeff

Sandy Casar

My Survey says:

1. Patrick Calcagni
2. Alexandre Moos
3. Beat Zberg

Inside sources say that the UCI has fixed the tour for only Swiss
riders to win this year, as they always remain netural and they are
home to the UCI.
They will probably be the only ones left by Tommarrow AM anyway.
Ulrich is on his way home to pickup his soccer shoes and help Germany
finish 2nd in the world cup since he is an expert on being the
runnerup.

OMC

F*** the Tour.......

OMC said:

They will probably be the only ones left by Tommarrow AM anyway.
Ulrich is on his way home to pickup his soccer shoes and help Germany
finish 2nd in the world cup since he is an expert on being the
runnerup.

Won't it be funny if France wins. The world cup that is.