Lance's Main TDF Competition

floyd and levi may be contenders for top ten overalls but not the podium.
here is my prediction for the top 4.
michael

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Jan Ulrich
3. Ivan Basso
4. Gilberto Simoni

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"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

So, as we approach Le Tour, who appears to be most likely to unseat Lance?

1. Floyd
2. Basso
3. Levi?

Of course, there's still a month to go, so I'm just having fun here. Jan,
Vino, and Heras will probably have something to say about things as well.
Jeff

hueyville said:

floyd and levi may be contenders for top ten overalls but not the podium.
here is my prediction for the top 4.
michael

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Jan Ulrich
3. Ivan Basso
4. Gilberto Simoni

I bet you a tablespoonful of peanut butter that Simoni doesn't make top
10. Cunego soft pedaled the Giro and will be on fire, he'll win a few
mtf's and end up near 5th.

How can you say Floyd isn't a podium contender. He can climb, time
trial, and can ride 3 weeks without having a bad day.

Basso is going to learn the hard way that Pantani got lucky. You can't
peak for both the Giro and the Tour.

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

So, as we approach Le Tour, who appears to be most likely to unseat Lance?

1. Floyd
2. Basso
3. Levi?

Of course, there's still a month to go, so I'm just having fun here. Jan,
Vino, and Heras will probably have something to say about things as well.
Jeff

I'm thinking the Aussie Rogers might be ready to break through.. Heras
looks to be keying on the Tour also. Levi or Floyd, Floyd or Levi, they
should both be in there battling for a top five.

hueyville said:

floyd and levi may be contenders for top ten overalls but not the podium.
here is my prediction for the top 4.
michael

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Jan Ulrich
3. Ivan Basso
4. Gilberto Simoni

I don't believe Simoni is riding the Tour this time around, but I could
be mistaken on that. In any case, he hasn't had the best of luck there,
and I wouldn't expect this year to be much different.

Interesting to see how Ivan Basso handles the double, really.

I believe Mayo might come back this year and try to make a statement
after his dissappointing tour last year.

Also, I'm chearing for Armstrong to do well, but it wouldn't suprise me
to see him move to a supporting role for the team like he did in
Georgia - I'm not convinced he has ANY motivation this year.

J Jones said:

So, as we approach Le Tour, who appears to be most likely to unseat Lance?

1. Floyd
2. Basso
3. Levi?

Of course, there's still a month to go, so I'm just having fun here. Jan,
Vino, and Heras will probably have something to say about things as well.
Jeff

I don't buy the notion that Basso was using the Giro as a training race
for the Tour. If that's really his intention, then unfortunately, he's
going to flop. Hard.

Der Jan seems to be very good, based on this weekend's one-day results.
But he is putting a lot of pressure on himself, and he has never
succeeded in winning the TdF under pressure.

Gilberto Simoni will go after polka dots and stage wins, just like he
did last year. That's a perfectly noble thing for him to do. But he
won't contend for GC - he isn't cut out for that, something he himself
has admitted.

Iban Mayo has an opportunity to erase a calendar year for
Euskaltel-Euskadi that has set Basque pride back about 10 years. I
think he's deeply gifted, and he could accomplish a lot. And he hasn't
peaked too early this year, either, showing a willingness to eat humble
pie and learn from his mistakes. I would dearly love to see him win.
But the team as a whole is showing a level of disorganization and ill
preparation which is unusual even for them, and unfortunately, it may
turn out that Mayo isn't immune to it.

Floyd Landis is a question mark. He did well in taking a tremendous
swell of form off the end of the Tour de France and continuing it into
the first week of the Vuelta, leading the race for an impressive stretch
of time. But he hasn't really tested himself under optimal conditions
yet. It will be interesting to see his true capabilities.

Levi Leipheimer has had many chances already. Sadly, he seems to lack
the last few percentage points which distinguish top-10s from podium
finishes. He will probably be lost in the shuffle again.

I'm going to throw out the name of Denis Menchov. He is another rider
like Basso who has consistently improved, and he is starting to come of
age in a big way. He could make this Tour a very exciting race, along
with a few other amazing young wild-cards like Alejandro Valverde,
Damiano Cunego and Alberto Contador.

-Sonarrat.

"sonarrat" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

Floyd Landis is a question mark. He did well in taking a tremendous
swell of form off the end of the Tour de France and continuing it into
the first week of the Vuelta, leading the race for an impressive stretch
of time. But he hasn't really tested himself under optimal conditions
yet. It will be interesting to see his true capabilities.

I wonder what is mental perspective might be. Would he sub-consciously be
used to LA as the boss and have a subtle subjugation, or might he be aching
to prove himself without being held back by doing so much work for someone
else, or might he feel I carried this mofo along so much I can't wait to
give him a run for his money?

I was all ready to write off Lance's chances but I'm now after the
Dauphine prologue & stage 1, I think he'll win again. I also wouldn't
be surprised if either Acevedo or Popovych get on the podium.

As for competition, I hope Jan does get his act together and that
T-Mobile work together to help him at least make it a good attempt. It
sounds like Kloden & Vino are saying the right things about working for
Jan rather than themselves.

Cunego will be interesting to watch and I hope he does well but his TT
skills will remove any major chance for the overall. No chance for
Simoni (if he shows up).

Don't think Levi will get closer than the top 8 or so and can't see
Floyd not having one bad day that puts out of a podium finish.

Haven't seen enough of Heras & Mayo's recent form to judge but think
this tour might not be hilly enough to help their cause anyway.

As someone else mentioned, Michael Rogers might do okay - maybe top 10?
Perhaps another Aussie - Brad McGee could push for top 10 also. Ditto
Cadel Evans but maybe too soon for him being his first time in Le Tour.

Can't see Valverde challenging for the overall but would like to see
him get a stage at least.

Karpets could do well but like with Basso, has just gone hard in the
Giro so would be a big ask to do well at the Tour also.

Apologies to Azevedo (and any other mis-spelt names).

I agree with Karpets, I think he will figure strongly in the podium
battle.

I see Alberto Contador as the biggest surprise, not for the victory but
maybe top-7. If he participates...

Kenny

"sonarrat" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

I'm going to throw out the name of Denis Menchov. He is another rider
like Basso who has consistently improved, and he is starting to come of
age in a big way. He could make this Tour a very exciting race, along
with a few other amazing young wild-cards like Alejandro Valverde, Damiano
Cunego and Alberto Contador.

What about another Russian, Karpets? He'd be doing the double this year
which might hurt his chances but I'd take him over Valverde and Contador.

J.V. said:

Would he sub-consciously be
used to LA as the boss and have a subtle subjugation, or might he be aching
to prove himself without being held back by doing so much work for someone
else, or might he feel I carried this mofo along so much I can't wait to
give him a run for his money?

Well, unless he gets the kind of GC winner support CSC, T-Mobile or
Discovery provide, it may be irrelevant. Even beyond the team on the
road, some organizations seem to be able to maximize the efforts of
the team members and some seem to throw nine guys against the wall and
see who sticks. The ones in the middle are the organizations that
drive their fans to distraction...

Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

sonarrat said:

Levi Leipheimer has had many chances already. Sadly, he seems to lack
the last few percentage points which distinguish top-10s from podium
finishes. He will probably be lost in the shuffle again.

Levi stepped foot in the wind tunnel this winter. I'll give him two
more minutes on a long time trial. This year there are how many ITT's?
Three, including the long prologue? Still, he was 20 minutes back
last year...I don't see him in the top 5. He always has one bad day,
or a bunch of mediocre days.

"sonarrat" <[email hidden]> schreef
He could make this Tour a very exciting race, along

Quoted message said:

with a few other amazing young wild-cards like Alejandro Valverde,
Damiano Cunego and Alberto Contador.

will all be cooked by the time the real Tour begins.

Bart Van Hoorebeeck said:

"sonarrat" <[email hidden]> schreef
He could make this Tour a very exciting race, along

Quoted message said:

with a few other amazing young wild-cards like Alejandro Valverde,
Damiano Cunego and Alberto Contador.

Quoted message said:

will all be cooked by the time the real Tour begins.

But they are all contenders for the Virtual Tour.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

matabala said:

"sonarrat" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I'm going to throw out the name of Denis Menchov. He is another rider
like Basso who has consistently improved, and he is starting to come of
age in a big way. He could make this Tour a very exciting race, along
with a few other amazing young wild-cards like Alejandro Valverde, Damiano
Cunego and Alberto Contador.

What about another Russian, Karpets? He'd be doing the double this year
which might hurt his chances but I'd take him over Valverde and Contador.

That was quite a ride in the final TT at the Giro from Karpets, so he's
certainly talented. I have to wonder if maybe the Giro was his "big
race," though, and the Tour isn't really his main objective. He's team
mates with Valverde, yes, but also Mancebo. Mancebo sure makes riding a
bike look like torture, but he did manage sixth in last year's Tour and
was a bit (more) bent out of shape by the addition of Valverde to the
team as a possible rival for leadership. I'd guess Karpets doesn't get
much room to ride in that scenario.

Menchov seems like a good pick, and aside from Rasmussen, who seems to
like chasing stages more than the overall, won't have anyone in his way
there at Rabobank.

In article <[email hidden]>,

matabala said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

So, as we approach Le Tour, who appears to be most likely to unseat Lance?

1. Floyd
2. Basso
3. Levi?

Of course, there's still a month to go, so I'm just having fun here. Jan,
Vino, and Heras will probably have something to say about things as well.
Jeff

I'm thinking the Aussie Rogers might be ready to break through.. Heras
looks to be keying on the Tour also. Levi or Floyd, Floyd or Levi, they
should both be in there battling for a top five.

Serious question. I do not pay close attention to the field, so I
generalize that Australians do not attack on mountain stages. How
and how long has Rogers been training for climbing? Exceptions to
my generalization? Thanks.

--
Michael Press

matabala said:

"sonarrat" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I'm going to throw out the name of Denis Menchov. He is another rider
like Basso who has consistently improved, and he is starting to come of
age in a big way. He could make this Tour a very exciting race, along
with a few other amazing young wild-cards like Alejandro Valverde, Damiano
Cunego and Alberto Contador.

What about another Russian, Karpets? He'd be doing the double this year
which might hurt his chances but I'd take him over Valverde and Contador.

That will hurt his chances, yes. There's also the little issue that the
Illes Balears team leader at the Tour de France is not him, but rather
Francisco Mancebo. And, in fact, Alejandro Valverde is also now on the
same team following his expensive post-season buyout from CV-Kelme.
Their tactics are not well publicized on Cyclingnews for some reason, so
I'm really not sure what the relationship is within the team. It may be
that Karpets is considered a super-domestique for Mancebo, and we just
don't realize that.

-Sonarrat.