Lance destroys stage 15

Bill C said:

I've got this feeling that nothing is going to matter before or after
stage 15 from the circumstances and Lance's talk.
From:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/news/?id=/news/2005/jul05/jul16news

Armstrong "might be able to follow"
By Hedwig Kröner in Montpellier

Given his feelings about Casartelli, this being the 10th anniversary,
his last Tour, and the family going to be there I'm betting Lance rips
this race apart in a Merckx like fashion that day.
Go Lance!

For each TdF stage the CyclingNews has a nice topographical profile,
(click through from here:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005//tour05/?id=stages )
allowing one to judge which stages have hard climbs just
near the end (also same for last year:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/?id=stages ).

Looking at things that way, it is not too mysterious which
stages Armstrong and also Basso will favor to try and gain
time, form permitting.

Last2Know said:

Bill C said:

I've got this feeling that nothing is going to matter before or after
stage 15 from the circumstances and Lance's talk.
From:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/news/?id=/news/2005/jul05/jul16news

Armstrong "might be able to follow"
By Hedwig Kröner in Montpellier

Given his feelings about Casartelli, this being the 10th anniversary,
his last Tour, and the family going to be there I'm betting Lance rips
this race apart in a Merckx like fashion that day.
Go Lance!

For each TdF stage the CyclingNews has a nice topographical profile,
(click through from here:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005//tour05/?id=stages )
allowing one to judge which stages have hard climbs just
near the end (also same for last year:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/?id=stages ).

Looking at things that way, it is not too mysterious which
stages Armstrong and also Basso will favor to try and gain
time, form permitting.

Everything sets up well for Lance to wreak havoc here. Watch him and
the team control things tomorrow while conserving energy as much as
possible to set up Sunday. If anyones going to try something I'd
suggest stage 14, not that it's going to matter.
I can't think of a better way for Lance to motivate himself way over
the top than the way this is playing out. Lance cares about history and
respect more than he admits IMO so this might be incredibly ugly for
everyone else especially since it's leading into a rest day and only
stage 16 to really defend on after that.
Do it Lance!
Bill C

"Bill C" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Last2Know said:

Bill C said:

I've got this feeling that nothing is going to matter before or after
stage 15 from the circumstances and Lance's talk.
From:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/news/?id=/news/2005/jul05/jul16news

Armstrong "might be able to follow"
By Hedwig Kröner in Montpellier

Given his feelings about Casartelli, this being the 10th anniversary,
his last Tour, and the family going to be there I'm betting Lance rips
this race apart in a Merckx like fashion that day.
Go Lance!

For each TdF stage the CyclingNews has a nice topographical profile,
(click through from here:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005//tour05/?id=stages )
allowing one to judge which stages have hard climbs just
near the end (also same for last year:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/?id=stages ).

Looking at things that way, it is not too mysterious which
stages Armstrong and also Basso will favor to try and gain
time, form permitting.

Everything sets up well for Lance to wreak havoc here. Watch him and
the team control things tomorrow while conserving energy as much as
possible to set up Sunday. If anyones going to try something I'd
suggest stage 14, not that it's going to matter.
I can't think of a better way for Lance to motivate himself way over
the top than the way this is playing out. Lance cares about history and
respect more than he admits IMO so this might be incredibly ugly for
everyone else especially since it's leading into a rest day and only
stage 16 to really defend on after that.
Do it Lance!
Bill C

I believe you are correct and that LA/DC has targeted Stage 15 since it was
announced. There is too much history and emotion involved to treat it as
just another big mountain stage. It will be interesting to see if he has
the legs.

Frank Drackman says...

Quoted message said:

"Bill C" wrote...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Everything sets up well for Lance to wreak havoc here. Watch him and
the team control things tomorrow while conserving energy as much as
possible to set up Sunday. If anyones going to try something I'd
suggest stage 14, not that it's going to matter.
I can't think of a better way for Lance to motivate himself way over
the top than the way this is playing out. Lance cares about history and
respect more than he admits IMO so this might be incredibly ugly for
everyone else especially since it's leading into a rest day and only
stage 16 to really defend on after that.

Quoted message said:

I believe you are correct and that LA/DC has targeted Stage 15 since it was
announced. There is too much history and emotion involved to treat it as
just another big mountain stage. It will be interesting to see if he has
the legs.

When the course for the '05 Tour was released, a couple of friends commented
that it looked like it was selected to bias against Lance. I know where their
POV was coming from with no Alpe or Ventoux, but I thought it looked fair
enough, especially opening with a TT. But stage 15 was the one that caught my
eye, as in: where is the last logical turning point if Lance needs time or if
someone else wants to deliver the KO. I don't expect to see Vino go early and
stay away all day. This looks to be a classic in the making. And the good
thing is that there's still a few hills left after stage 15. When you add in
the Casartelli factor, it looks like Lance will either shatter the field or blow
up trying. I look forward to it.

Mad Dog said:

Frank Drackman says...

Quoted message said:

"Bill C" wrote...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Everything sets up well for Lance to wreak havoc here. Watch him and
the team control things tomorrow while conserving energy as much as
possible to set up Sunday. If anyones going to try something I'd
suggest stage 14, not that it's going to matter.
I can't think of a better way for Lance to motivate himself way over
the top than the way this is playing out. Lance cares about history and
respect more than he admits IMO so this might be incredibly ugly for
everyone else especially since it's leading into a rest day and only
stage 16 to really defend on after that.

Quoted message said:

I believe you are correct and that LA/DC has targeted Stage 15 since it was
announced. There is too much history and emotion involved to treat it as
just another big mountain stage. It will be interesting to see if he has
the legs.

When the course for the '05 Tour was released, a couple of friends commented
that it looked like it was selected to bias against Lance. I know where their
POV was coming from with no Alpe or Ventoux, but I thought it looked fair
enough, especially opening with a TT. But stage 15 was the one that caught my
eye, as in: where is the last logical turning point if Lance needs time or if
someone else wants to deliver the KO. I don't expect to see Vino go early and
stay away all day. This looks to be a classic in the making. And the good
thing is that there's still a few hills left after stage 15. When you add in
the Casartelli factor, it looks like Lance will either shatter the field or blow
up trying. I look forward to it.

Especially since I think T-Mobile blew their wad today and Lance was
still able to pull out two hard accelerations, first to drop Jan, then
gap Basso. Unbelieveable. My guess is that DC hangs together much
better tomorrow until the start of the last climb, then Lance just
keeps cranking it up until there's noone left and he comes in alone. I
don't think the other teams (T-Mob is no longer a team) have anything
left to slow him down with.
Great to see Totschnig hang on for the win. The pics of him just
laying on the ground after the end totally spent really told the story,
hope he can hang on and finish the Tour.
Glued to the idiot box tomorrow for sure.
Bill C

Bill C said:

I
don't think the other teams (T-Mob is no longer a team) have anything
left to slow him down with.

Roche Recovery Factor, JU.

Quoted message said:

Great to see Totschnig hang on for the win. The pics of him just
laying on the ground after the end totally spent really told the story,
hope he can hang on and finish the Tour.

The Agony of Victory. Bra-vo!

Quoted message said:

Glued to the idiot box tomorrow for sure.

Emergency Tivo install...? At least a new tape... --TP

Bill C says...

Quoted message said:

Mad Dog wrote:

(snips)

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

This looks to be a classic in the making. And the good
thing is that there's still a few hills left after stage 15. When
you add in the Casartelli factor, it looks like Lance will either
shatter the field or blow up trying. I look forward to it.

Quoted message said:

Especially since I think T-Mobile blew their wad today and Lance was
still able to pull out two hard accelerations, first to drop Jan, then
gap Basso. Unbelieveable. My guess is that DC hangs together much
better tomorrow until the start of the last climb, then Lance just
keeps cranking it up until there's noone left and he comes in alone.

Lance very well may have given the boys a partial rest day. If the DTrain
pushes the pace tomorrow, it will look like a pattern to me. It was difficult
to guage the pain by facial expression today. At about 6K, Lance didn't look so
good, but he was fine to the finish. Basso looked fresh all the way so maybe he
was looking to tomorrow and holding back? That might not matter because I don't
think Lance pushed all that close to the limit. Ulrich looked pretty good
(considering how morbid he can look on a big hill) up till about 2 or 3K out.
Who can come on strong tomorrow, other than Lance? Basso still looks to be a
threat. Like you, I think Lance wants this stage - bad.

Quoted message said:

I don't think the other teams (T-Mob is no longer a team) have anything
left to slow him down with.

Looks that way. I was embarrassed for T-Mob with Jan and Kloden chasing down
Vino. Like swatting a flea.

Quoted message said:

Great to see Totschnig hang on for the win. The pics of him just
laying on the ground after the end totally spent really told the story,
hope he can hang on and finish the Tour.

Ditto.

Quoted message said:

Glued to the idiot box tomorrow for sure.

Ditto again, then out to climb a big hill afterwards to burn off the nervous
energy.

Mad Dog said:

Lance very well may have given the boys a partial rest day. If the DTrain
pushes the pace tomorrow, it will look like a pattern to me. It was difficult

Discovery - were they shut down or did they shut down? Doesn't really
matter - Stage 15 is not one where hard tempo riding would make much
difference. Think back to last year when Simoni won over approximately
the same roads. Repeat: it doesn't matter what today's stage did to the
rest of the Discovery team - it only matters what it did to Lance.

For stage 15 winner, it's hard to go past Lance. He certainly has the
will to go and dominate. Whether he can still back up two big stages
(and remember there's still a big stage to Pau to come) is the only
question. I'm sure that he would love to go out and stamp his
authority, but I think he will wait until the last climb.

Quoted message said:

Looks that way. I was embarrassed for T-Mob with Jan and Kloden chasing down
Vino. Like swatting a flea.

Hmmmm. It's like in a training race where someone goes off the front
and everyone just KNOWS that they don't need to chase because he will
come back. Vino's last attack out of Ax was never going to go anywhere,
in any parallel universe. Everyone knows that the guy who got seriously
dropped on the previous climb, to get back on the descent only when the
main group slowed, is not going to get away or do anything significant
on the last climb. So it doesn't matter who closes the gap...

Stu, idiot savant on crack

Stewart Fleming says...

Quoted message said:

Discovery - were they shut down or did they shut down? Doesn't really
matter - Stage 15 is not one where hard tempo riding would make much
difference.

It MIGHT matter. Adding stress to a weakend group of riders will weaken them
further. It could knock Ras out of second in the GC. It could cause Basso and
or Ulrich to drop off. Five big climbs - if the top GC contenders are forced to
keep up a pace they ultimately can't handle, then they can get dropped. Even if
they recover on the descentes, the mental side will suffer. Repeatedly seeing
Disc/Lance pull away is demoralizing, even to the top riders.

If Disc is in top form AND they time their moves right, it can certainly deliver
a killing blow to a few top riders.

Quoted message said:

For stage 15 winner, it's hard to go past Lance. He certainly has the
will to go and dominate. Whether he can still back up two big stages
(and remember there's still a big stage to Pau to come) is the only
question. I'm sure that he would love to go out and stamp his
authority, but I think he will wait until the last climb.

Probably so, unless an opportunity presents itself that he can't afford to pass
by. Delivering the killing blow on the last climb is certainly more stylish and
in my opinion is the best strategy. Then again, delivering on the strategy is
the hard part, but I'm guessing Lance is ready.

Quoted message said:

Hmmmm. It's like in a training race where someone goes off the front
and everyone just KNOWS that they don't need to chase because he will
come back.

But this wasn't a training ride. Who knows what was going across the T-Mob
radios at the time? But if the DS told Vino to attack, then Kloden and Jan
should have coordinated. Many possible scenarios - maybe Vino was just being
Vino the lone wolf?

Quoted message said:

But this wasn't a training ride. Who knows what was going across the T-Mob
radios at the time? But if the DS told Vino to attack, then Kloden and Jan
should have coordinated. Many possible scenarios - maybe Vino was just being
Vino the lone wolf?

T-Mobile doesn't seem to have radios. Vinokourov didn't even know if
Ullrich got dropped going into Courchevel until after the stage!

sonarrat said:

Quoted message said:

Vino probably plugged into his iPod before the stage and forgot to switch
to the radio. What tunes do you think he would listen to?

Radar Love (Golden Earring)
Highway to Hell (AC/DC)
Long and Winding Road (Beatles)
You Can't Catch Me (Chuck Berry)
Nothin' But The Taillights (Clint Black)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/topgear/driving_song/ has made a top 5:
1) Radar Love: Golden Earring
2) Steppenwolf: Born to be Wild
3) Queen: Don't Stop Me Now
4) Deep Purple: Highway Star
5) Meat Loaf: Bat out of Hell

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